7K+ for the 4th straight day and the data of 10.16.2021

It’s the fourth straight day that the Philippines has logged 7,000 plus new cases. Today, the Health Agency announces 7,772 new cases based on 54,174 tests with a positivity rate of 13% last October 14. Todays report most likely include some backlog cases which did not get reported in the past days. The good news is that this is the lowest national positivity rate since July 31, where we marked a positivity rate of 12.8%.

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases are up at more than 85,000. Health care utilization and ICU utilization rate are moderate risk.

Total deaths reported today is 156.

The NCR accounted for 18% of the cases in the country, with the 1,429 new cases today. Cagayan Valley was back in second spot, but the Bicol Region is up in 5th rank.

Four provinces from Northern Luzon are in the top ten, with Isabela and Benguet in first and second rank. The other two are Nueva Vizcaya and Cagayan.

While 10 of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila were in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases today, it was the City of Taguig that overtook Quezon City for the first time since the start of this surge to rank first on the level of local government units. Eight cities continued to report triple digits, while the rest reported double numbers.

Cities outside of NCR in the top ten were: Zamboanga City, Naga City, Baguio City, Davao City, and Bacolod City.

An update on NCR plus 8 and the data for 10.15.2021

It’s another 7K day (third in a row) and that should be good news as the Health Agency reports 7,625 cases today. With more recoveries, the total active cases are now down to less than 80,000. The Philippines breaches the 2.7M mark with today’s new cases.

Total tests done last October 13 was close to 50,000 with a positivity of 14.9%.

Hospital utilization and ICU utilization is at moderate risk.

Total deaths reported today is 203.

The NCR accounted for 18% of the total cases today with 1,381 new cases. Except for BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits.

Isabela province and Negros Occidental led the provinces with most cases.

On an LGU level, only 8 LGUs reported triple digits while the remaining 12 reported double digits. The LGU in 20th spot, the City of Marikina, had 49 cases. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top ten – Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Baguio City, Davao City and Antipolo (Rizal).

The NCR plus eight are composed of the following: Mega Manila, Cebu City, Davao city, four provinces in CALABARZON (Batangas, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal) and two provinces in Central Luzon (Bulacan and Pampanga).

Based on the OCTA Research data, six of these areas are now at moderate risk, while two – Cebu City and Cavite – are at low risk. This is based on the average values for the indicators of ADAR (incidence rate), Rt (reproduction number), health care utilization (HCUR and ICU utilization rate) and positivity of tests.

Based on these indicators, only NCR has an ADAR > 10, while the rest are now below. Reproduction rate is all the nine hot spots are well below the national average, with Cebu City enjoying a Rt < 0.5. ICU utilization rate is also down to moderate levels in most of these places, and the positivity rate for testing is < 10% for Cebu City and Cavtie, at 10% for NCR, and above the national average of 14.5% in Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas and Davao City.

Prepared by Professor Guido David, PhD

With R ~ 0.82 and 7,835 new cases and the data for 10.14.2021

With 51,358 tests done on October 12, 2021 and a positivity rate of 14%, the Health Agency reports 7,835 new cases today (including some cases which may have not been reported in past days or even weeks). The active cases are up at close to 85,000.

The positivity rate varies from region to region, with the NCR at 11% and some areas like Central Visayas at 8%.

Health care utilization is lower in general (moderate risk), with ICU utilization rate at 65% nationally and 61% in the NCR.

New deaths announced today is 154. The case fatality rate for outcomes is at 1.54%.

For the past week, NCR has ranged from 17.5-22.5% of the total daily cases in the country. NCR plus (CALABARZON and Central Luzon) accounted for an average of 45% of the share of total daily cases. The target should be to decrease further the cases in these areas, and while they are the economic hubs of Luzon and, well, the country, targeting specific reforms (improving indoor ventilation in offices and malls, improve testing and aggressive contact tracing, stricter granular lockdowns particularly in areas where crowding is highest, increase vaccination in the more congested areas and among informal settlers) is highly suggested.

Regions MUST receive their lion’s share of the vaccines for the eligible adult population so that there is equity in vaccinating them sooner than later. Adults are the direct economic frontliner in every household. They need to work in order to put food on the table. The vaccines should be accessible to even the most far flung areas. Evidently, from the daily data drop, one can see that the delta surge has reached every tip of the archipelago – from Batanes to Jolo. And no one is safe, until everyone is safe.

On a provincial level, Benguet continued to lead among the top ten.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The good news is that of the top 20 LGUs, 10 of them have low three digits, while the other ten are double digit figures. A good sign considering a month ago, all LGUs in the top twenty either had four or three digits at the very least.

Five cities in the top ten were from NCR, while the other five were from major LGUs outside of Mega Manila. Those outside of NCR were: Baguio, Davao City, Zamboanga City, Bacoor (Cavite) and Bacolod City.

Lower Wednesday but still with backlog data and the data for 10.13.2021

There’s still a backlog to include as unannounced cases and on a supposedly low Wednesday (remember, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are days with lower cases because of the fewer tests done on Sundays and Mondays), it would be prudent to add the backlogs on these days.

The Health Agency announces 7,181 new cases today, with 40,323 tested last October 11 yielding 14.2% positivity. While we are not testing enough (positivity rate is still high but is going down), the downward inflection in cases is reflected in the healthcare utilization both nationally and in the NCR, where ICU utilization rate is at moderate risk.

A total of 173 new deaths were announced, with the country now breaching the 40,000 mark for deaths. Again, this is not actual numbers but the number of deaths accounted for due to COVID-19 as of today.

The NCR saw lower cases today with 1,257 or 17.5% of the day’s total. Northern Luzon still came in with high numbers with Cagayan Valley and CAR in third and fourth, respectively.

Benguet topped today’s list for provinces with most cases, followed by Negros Occidental and Isabela.

Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. Five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top ten. They are: Baguio City, Solano (Nueva Vizcaya), Davao City, Zamboanga City, and Antipolo City (Rizal).

The inconsistency in data and the data drop for 10.12.2021

The common question is – why is there so much inconsistency is the data that is being announced in the infographics? And you’d either really have to be a mind reader to try to understand what is being communicated with the information they provide because they won’t provide any explanation at all.

But it’s because there’s quite a number in the backlog. If you look at the tests done October 10, as the basis for the data released today, it is clear that only 34,175 tests were done with a positivity rate of 15.5% for that day. Note in the infographic that the Health Agency indicates “data for October 12 based on reports from October 10”. Mathematically that would come out to around 5,300 cases. The discrepancy in the 8,615 announced today and the 5,300 cases is most likely a backlog of 3,300 cases which have not been reconciled. While it is essential that every case unreported is counted as a new case, it would be informative if the DoH announce the actual count based on tests done and the amount of backlog cases included in the count.

With more than 25,000 recoveries today, the active cases have decreased to 82,228.

There are 236 new deaths announced today.

Health care utilization continued to decrease, making the new cases announced today more likely due to a backlog report.

So with the backlog reports coming in, NCR plus are back on the leader board in 1-2-3 order. NCR accounted for 22% of the total share, while NCR plus owned 48% of the total cases today.

This puts Cavite and Rizal back as top provinces with most cases for the day.

On an LGU level, 10 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The others in the list included Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, and DasmariƱas (Cavite) in the top ten.

Lowest since August 10 and the data of 10.11.2021

So the 12,000 plus cases yesterday was depressing. But as I explained, it had to be the backlogs which were unaccounted for during the glitches with COVIDKaya. Hopefully, that has been resolved.

The Health Agency announces 8,292 new cases today, its lowest since the last time we touched 8,423 cases last August 10, 2021. According to the infographic, todays data is based on over 52,000 tests done October 9, with a positivity rate of 16.5%.

With only 306 recoveries, the active case are up at close to 99,000.

Health care utilization seems to be doing well both nationally (69%) and the National Capital Region (67%). The HCUR is a good reflection on how well correlated the cases are with the trend in the pandemic.

There were 36 new deaths reported today.

While the NCR still recorded the highest cases among the regions, it reported 1,445 (17%) cases, and was the only region to report quadruple digits. Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region and CAR accounted for around 30% of today’s total cases.

On a provincial level, 5 provinces in Northern Luzon are in the top ten – Isabela, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, and La Union.

Nine of 17 LGUs in Mega Manila are in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases for the day. Several LGUs in Northern Luzon are in the top 20 – Baguio City, Delfin Albano (Magsaysay in Isabela), City of Candon (Ilocos Sur), La Trinidad (Benguet), San Fernando City (La Union), and Tuguegarao City (Cagayan).

With more than 12,000 new cases and the data for 10.10.2021

The Health Agency reports 12,159 new cases today. Of course, this will not match their infographics where they point out that the data today is based on reports last October 8 where 53,880 were tested with 15.9% positivity. If this were the case, then we would mathematically have 8500 or so cases in actuality.

But people don’t count the backlog and if you did, you’d notice that the backlogs were mounting the past days. I can only surmise that these were due to the COVIDKaya glitches, which needs to get addressed ASAP. It is difficult to model inaccurate data.

With more than 27,000 recoveries, the active cases are now at 90,927.

There are 119 new deaths reported today.

NCR recorded a high 23% of the total cases today (from previous < 20% daily shares), and CALABARZON and Central Luzon back in the 1-2-3 rankings. Cagayan Valley came in fourth and the other regions in Northern Luzon (Ilocos Region and CAR) take a respite from the daily high numbers (most likely delayed reports again).

However, on a provincial level, Isabela continued to lead, followed by Cavite and Rizal.

And among cities/municipalities, 13 of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top ten. The surprise of the day is Zamboanga City that zipped into second spot. Davao City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City and Antipolo (Rizal) are in the top ten list.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The number of cases (and deaths) continued to decrease in the Philippines, in spite of remaining anywhere between 7th-11th place (depending on which day you were looking at). The 7-day average is down to a little more than 11,000 and should likely trend in the four digits this coming week, as the R is seen declining as well.

The average deaths seen is also low, but may not be accurate as the many glitches in COVIDKaya became challenging in reporting mortalities.

Testing has also considerably declined, but the positivity rate has decreased as well. The decrease in testing can be attributed to the decreasing cases, particularly in the National Capital Region. Why is this so? The NCR (plus CALABARZON and Central Luzon) account for more than 50% of the almost 280 testing facilities in the country. Notice that the positivity rate posted here is still at 21%, but the Department of Health pegs our 7 day average at 16.3% as of yesterday, October 9, 2021.

If you scrutinize the data drop, the NCR, the largest contributor to the daily COVID-19 cases has a positivity rate of 13%. Quite a distance from the national average. It’s because more people get tested where there are facilities. Where there is lack of laboratories for testing, there is delay in testing and obtaining results.

In the ASEAN region and select Asian continent, the total number of weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases as of October 8 was highest for Thailand, followed by the Philippines. Surprisingly, Singapore had more cases this past week with 20,343 cases, than Indonesia that reported only 9,383 cases over the whole week.

The number of cases can be correlated with the effective reproduction number among the same countries. Singapore is seeing a rise in R at 1.46, while Thailand is cruising at 1.08. All other ASEAN nations are down to <1.0, while Japan is seeing a R<0.5. If Japan is able to maintain the R <0.5 for a whole month, it will likely see double to low triple digit cases in a day next month.

A tad higher but plateauing and the data of 10.09.2021

The Health Agency reported 500 additional cases today announcing 11,010 new cases today. With more than 22,500 recoveries, there are a bit more than 100,000 active cases with 90.2% being asymptomatic and mild at the time of testing.

Total tests done last October 7 was 56,475 with 16.3% positivity.

There were 273 new deaths reported today putting the total deaths closer to 40,000.

Notice that there is now a lowering of health care utilization, including ICU utilization.

NCR saw a slight bump up in the share of the total cases with 18.2% or 2,005 new cases. Nevertheless, it was Northern Luzon that accounted for 28% of the country’s cases with Cagayan Valley in second spot.

On a provincial level, four provinces located in Northern Luzon are among the top ten – Isabela and Benguet (first and third), and Cagayan and Nueva Vizcaya.

Nine of 17 LGUs continued to be in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. The shift is in the LGUs outside of Mega Manila, where 6 of those in the top ten are from outside of the National Capital Region. Those in the top ten are: Baguio City, Davao City, Zamboanga City, DasmariƱas (Cavite), Cauayan (Isabela) and Bacolod City.

Flattening at 10K plus and the data on 10.08.2021

The COVIDKaya remains challenging as noted in the very very late upload of the data drop for yesterday, October 7, 2021.

I have updated the previous post with the granular data so that the readers can access it.

Today, the Health Agency reports 500 more cases than yesterday and announced 10,670 new cases. With 7,691 recoveries, the active cases are up at more than 118,000.

Total tests done on October 6 was 58,583, with a positivity rate of 16.9% (a new low).

Total deaths reported today was at 191.

NCR continues to lead, albeit flat, accounting for 17.1% of the total cases today. Aside from CALABARZON that came in third, the other regions with quadruple digits were all from Northern Luzon – Cordillera Administrative Regions, Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley. Northern Luzon accounted for one-third of the total cases in the country.

This is reflected in the fact that on a provincial level, 6 of the top ten provinces were all from the North: Benguet, Isabela, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan and Ifugao.

On a LGU level, 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases. However, five LGUs outside NCR were among the top ten, with Baguio City in second and Davao City in third. The others were: San Fernando (La Union), Zamboanga City, and La Trinidad (Benguet).

At >10,000 cases and R=0.85 and the data for 10.07.2021

With declining cases, the reproduction number of the Philippines as of October 3 stood at 0.85 (+/- 0.05). Which is good news, as NCR’s reproduction number slips further to 0.64 and a positivity rate around 16%.

Today, the Health Agency reports 10,019 new cases. With more than 7000 recoveries, the active cases is up at 115,328. Total tests done last October 5 was 56,418, with a positivity rate of 18.1% (higher nationally than Mega Manila).

New deaths reported were 109.

The very late post for the granular data is due to the glitches in uploading of COVIDKaya.

While NCR had 1,778 new cases, this was down to 17.7% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are back in second and third place, while Cagayan Valley had 1,015 new cases. Again, all the remaining regions reported triple digits.

This data is well correlated with the top provinces Benguet and Isabela which continued to lead on a provincial level.

On the LGU level, 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities with most cases. Baguio City, Davao City, Bacolod City and Zamboanga City made it to the top ten list.