382 new deaths reported on 04.06.2021

Today marks the highest number of deaths reported in a single day in the Philippines as the Health Agency announces 382 new deaths (of which 341 occurred prior to April 2021). The highest deaths recorded in the country were on two occasions – September 14, 2020 (258 deaths) and February 20, 2021 (239 deaths). As mentioned in past posts, deaths may take quite some time to occur because of the long duration of illness among those that are severe or critical. In addition, reported deaths are validated thoroughly and may take quite some time to report as due to COVID-19 as the cause of death or other co-morbid diseases.

Tuesdays and Wednesdays usually report lower cases. There were 9,373 new cases reported today, pushing the total cases now to 812,760. Note, however, that the positivity rate is still at 20 percent and the healthcare capacity is at an alarmingly high level. ICU beds are 82 percent occupied in the National Capital Region, while isolation beds are at 71 percent. On a national scale, the ICU beds are at 63 percent capacity already.

We will most likely overtake Sweden and settle for 29th spot after the 4PM count tomorrow. In the global tally below, at the rate the number of new cases are being reported daily, we will most likely overtake Portugal and Israel before this week ends.

NCR as usual posted the highest number of cases for the day with 3,768 new cases (or only 40.2 percent) for the day. CALABARZON had 1,613 (17.2 percent) and Central Luzon 946 (10.1 percent). It was Cagayan Valley (939 new cases) and CAR (824 new cases) that contributed to the haul for the day. These five regions in Luzon accounted for 86.4 percent of the total cases of the day.

In NCR, it was Quezon City that continued the lead with 906 cases followed by Manila (629). The surprise of the day? Muntinlupa City which reported 216 cases and shot up to 6th place among all cities in the Philippines including all LGUs in the Mega Manila. Thirteen of 17 LGUs were among the top 20 cities with most cases.

Isabela was the overall leader on a provincial level with 601 new cases, overtaking Cavite. Notice that the rankings on a provincial had significantly shifted to the northern part of Luzon, extending to Benguet, La Union, Cagayan and Mountain Province.

Day 8 of ECQ part 2…data drop for 04.05.2021

The Health Agency reports 8,355 new cases today, as the data for testing during the Holy Week are released. The data announced today were from testing done during the Holy Week (with some testing centers closed for the long holiday). Note that the number of tests done in the past few days are less than optimum, with the positivity rate at more than 20 percent for the past week. With the more than 8,000 new cases today, the Philippines has now breached the 800,000 mark.

The healthcare capacity, in spite hospitals opening additional beds is at a critical high with 79 percent ICU capacity and 72 percent isolation bed capacity in the National Capital Region. Notice, however, that the ICU beds in the Philippines has increased as well. It is now at 61 percent from a previous 51 percent occupancy in mid March, nationally.

The OCTA Monitoring Report showed that the reproduction number in the NCR had declined from 1.88 to 1.61 after one week of ECQ. The goal of a lockdown is meant to slow down the increase in new cases. With an additional week of strict ECQ, we can hopefully bring down the Rt to 1.0 (or anywhere near it).

The average number of new COVID-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 5,538 over the past week, an increase of 20 percent compared to the previous week. The NCR as a whole is now on a period where the increase in new COVID-19 cases is slowing down. The moving average trend lines have started to level off.

OCTA Research Monitoring Report, Philippine COVID-19 Update, April 5, 2021

The table below show significant increases in the provinces of Laguna, Batangas and Pampanga. Only the province of Cebu has seen a significant decrease in daily new cases. In terms of ICU capacity, all top ten provinces are past the 70 percent critical level except for Batangas (65 percent) and Cebu (23 percent). Only Cebu has a positivity rate less than 10 percent for testing. All other provinces in the top 10 have a positivity rate ranging from 17-38 percent!

The top twenty LGUs with highest cases are in the table below. Makati and Pasay were the only LGUs that saw a negative change (decline) in daily new cases. Attack rates were highest, however, with Makati, Navotas, Mandaluyong and San Juan. Hospital bed occupancy is at critical levels in 15 of the 20 top LGUs. ICU occupancy is at critical levels in 14 of the top 20 LGUs in the list. Taguig, Mandaluyong, Antipolo, Imus and Cainta are at 100 percent ICU occupancy as of this writing.

What makes it difficult for ICU occupancy is the management of critically ill COVID-19 patients. They occupy ventilators longer and are managed in the intensive care for a significantly longer duration than nonCOVID patients. In addition, they also add to the challenge of healthcare worker manpower in the hospitals. When HCWs are infected because of the hazard from being exposed to ill patients, the healthcare system becomes overwhelmed and the quality of care becomes compromised during these difficult times.

The government should work at efforts at alleviating the burden of caring for mild (and some moderately ill) patients in hospitals by creating more isolation facilities dedicated to COVID19 cases alone. The healthcare staff caring for COVID19 patients should receive better pay and additional personal and health hazard benefits because of the antecedent risks when caring for patients with COVID.

Todays data showed NCR, CALABARZON, CAR, Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon grab the spotlight with 87 percent of the total cases for the day. Other regions with triple digits were: Ilocos Region, Western Visayas and Central Visayas. There were 40 cases with no tagged location on a regional level.

In the National Capital Region, where 46 percent of the total cases for today were from, Quezon City continued to dominate the numbers with close to one-third of the cases for Mega Manila. City of Manila had 423 cases. Those with more than 100 cases were: Taguig, Pasig, Makati, Parañaque, Caloocan, Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, and Valenzuela.

Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Cavite and Isabela ruled the day. Cebu is no longer in the top 10 provinces. All the top ten provinces are found in Luzon.

The Easter Sunday data drop 04.04.2021

The Health Agency reports more than 40,000 new recoveries in the Easter Sunday recovery haul. New cases, however, totaled 11,028 new cases pushing the total a few thousand short of 800,000 cases. The positivity rate remains above 20 percent with fewer laboratories open during the long Holy Week holiday.

Hospitals in the National Capital Region are in filled beyond critical levels with ICU beds at 78 percent and isolation beds at 70 percent.

The surge in the country is now on its fourth week. Notice in the graph below as provided by the COVID-19 Tracker site of the Department of Health that the week on week cases from March 4-10, followed by March 11-17, then March 18-24, and March 25-31 saw the highest number of cases within the March 25-31 frame. However, with the growth of cases has significantly slowed down compared to the past three weeks. Nevertheless these are high still high numbers to contend with and will take time awhile before it can be brought down considering the fact that the current cases were exposures within the past two weeks.

Based on the actual cases, the Philippines recorded 71,603 cases from March 28-April 03, 2021, or a 7-day average of more than 10,000 new cases daily.

The daily positivity rate for the Philippines as of April 02, 2021 was higher than the highest positivity rate almost one year ago and only 161 or 208 laboratories submitting data on April 2, 2021.

Todays data drop showed NCR continue to lead with 51.2 percent (5,646 new cases) of the total. As usual, CALABARZON came in second with 2,038 (18.5 percent) and Central Luzon in third with 1,110 (10.1 percent) cases. These three regions continued to account for more than 80 percent of the total cases in the country.

Cagayan Valley and CAR contributed 547 and 506 cases each, respectively. Others with triple digits were: Ilocos Region, Central Visayas and Western Visayas. Sadly, there are 97 patients who were positive for the virus but had no tagged location on a regional level. It is cases like these that make it difficult to find where and who the patients are. Obviously, if you don’t know who and where they are from, there is no way you can do contact tracing.

In the NCR, Quezon City continued to dominate the daily haul with 1,158 new cases or 20.5 percent of the cases in Mega Manila for the day. Ironically, Quezon City had more cases than the whole of Central Luzon reported for April 4, 2021.

Two cities reported more than 600 cases: Manila and Caloocan City. Taguig had 502. Pasig with 432. Malabon and Parañaque had more than 300 but less than 400 cases. Makati, Mandaluyong, and Las Piñas had more than 200 but less than 300 cases. The following cities had more than 100 but less than 200 cases: Navotas, Pasay, San Juan and Marikina. Muntinlupa, Pateros and Valenzuela reported double digits.

Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, Cavite continued to lead in number of cases, followed by Rizal and Bulacan. The following provinces are seeing a rise in cases: Batangas, Isabela, Pampanga and La Union.

Black Saturdays high numbers – the prelude to a longer ECQ… 04.03.2021

We ranked 10th in the world yesterday, as the country recorded more than 15,000 new cases (with 3,760 from an underreporting mishap last March 31, 2021). That meant that 11,601 were the actual new cases reported for April 02, 2021.

Today, the Health Agency reports 12,576 new cases and 103 new deaths with astonishingly high positivity rate of 24.2 percent. This means that around 1 in every 4 individuals tested will most likely test positive. And we’re only talking about those getting tested. The Philippines now has 784,043 total COVID-19 cases. A quick look at the hospitals in the NCR show that utilization for ICU is now at an all time high of 80 percent and isolation beds at 72 percent. The reality on the ground is more heart breaking as many patients cry for help in getting admitted, but there is literally no room at the in. Family members end up having to care for the sick and quickly get exposed and turn up positive as well. The number of active cases has exploded to more than 165,000 (21.1 percent).

In the Asian region, our data show how steep the trajectory for the Philippines is, compared to other countries that are seeing a resurgence in cases. While Indonesia and Malaysia see significant improvement, the Philippines, India, Bangladesh and Japan are on a surge. The Philippines has close to 100 new cases per 1,000,000 people or 0.01 percent of the population daily are turning up positive. Note that the data is based on PER CAPITA, and is a better reflection on how we are doing compared to other countries based on population size and not simply numerical values alone.

Today’s data showed NCR owning 6,681 (53.1 percent) of the total. CALABARZON came in second with 17 percent (2,103) and Central Luzon with 1,231 (9.8 percent). Other regions with triple digits were: CAR, Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, Central Visayas, Western Visayas, and Davao Region. There were 105 cases with no known location on a regional level. Twenty-seven cases were from ROFs.

In NCR, Quezon City and Manila continued the account for most of the cases for the day. A total of 2,265 cases were from these two LGUs alone – comprising more than one-third of the cases in NCR. Caloocan had more than 500 cases. Pasig, Makati and Taguig had more than 400 but less than 500 cases. The cities of Mandaluyong, Parañaque, and Valenzuela had more than 300 but less than 400. Marikina, Pasay, Las Piñas, and Navotas had more than 200 and less than 300. Malabon, Muntinlupa and Pateros had more than 100 but less than 200 cases. The lone city with double digit cases was San Juan with 76.

Fifteen of 17 LGUs from NCR were in the top twenty cities with most cases for today. First to fourteenth place? All from NCR.

On a provincial level, Cavite and Bulacan continue to lead the haul. All provinces in the top 10 continued to rake in triple digits.

Good Friday’s calvary 15,310 new cases for 04.02.2021

The road to Calvary is short and difficult. That’s the story on Good Friday. The total number of 6,128 cases on March 31, 2021 did not include 3,709 backlogs. In short, there should have been 9,837 cases for March 31. With the correction by the Health Agency, that deficit is carried to todays numbers – 15,310 new cases announced on April 02, 2021 (or 11,601 in actuality were it not for the backlog added). This horrific number pushes the total cases to 771,497 with almost 20 percent active cases (more than 153,000). With 20.7 percent positivity, the effect of the ECQ on the daily cases will most likely not be seen anytime soon.

The total cases in the world now breaks the 130 million mark as there are increasing cases being seen globally. Yesterday, the world recorded more than 700,000 new cases and close to 12,000 new deaths with countries like Brazil, India, Peru and European nations spiraling into another difficult and deadly surge.

The granular data for the day showed that NCR continued to lead with 7,879 (51.5 percent) of the total. This is followed by CALABARZON with close to 3000 cases and Central Luzon with 1,647. Note again that these three regions alone totaled 12,432 or 81.2 percent of the total cases for the day. These three regions reported quadruple digits. Nine other regions reported triple digits in todays blood bath. These were: Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas, CAR, Ilocos Region, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Davao Region and Northern Mindanao. There were 76 cases with no identified location on a regional level.

In the NCR, Quezon City and the City of Manila had more than 1,000 cases each. These two cities in Mega Manila accounted for 38 percent of the total cases for NCR. Caloocan and Pasig had more than 500 but less than 600 cases. Parañaque, Makati and Mandaluyong had more than 400 but less than 500. Taguig, Valenzuela, Muntinlupa and Marikina had 300-400 cases. Pasay City, Las Piñas, and San Juan had 200-300 cases. Malabon had 130 new cases.

Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities, with 1-13 in rank all coming from Mega Manila alone.

On a provincial level, three provinces had more than 800 cases – Rizal, Cavite and Bulacan. Laguna had 656 followed by Batangas and Cebu with more than 400 cases. All provinces in the top 10 had triple digits.

Batanes now has 10 cases, with 4 cases added today. Biliran and Davao Occidental were the only two provinces with NO cases reported for today.

OCTA Research Monitoring Update

The latest update from the OCTA Research Monitoring Update shows the significant decline in the reproduction number in the National Capital Region on the week of the Enhanced Community Quarantine. While the Rt is now at 1.58 (from almost 2.25 two weeks ago), the continued rise has slowed down to 19 percent. Note that this increase is considerably lower compared to the previous weekly increases of 60 percent.

The ECQ has a greater effect in reducing the reproduction number compared to the GCQ. The average number of tests per day in the NCR from March 28-31 was 25,880, a 12 percent decline in tests compared to the daily average from March 21-27. The problem is that with a high positivity rate of 23 percent in the NCR, there is a need to further scale up PCR testing to be able to keep up with the surge in new COVID-19 cases.

Philippine COVID-19 UPDATE, OCTA Monitoring Report, April 01, 2021

The hotspots in the country remain NCR plus, Isabela and Batangas.

In the list below, note the variety in positivity rate among the top 10 provinces in the country. Only Cebu has managed to bring down its positivity rate to 10 percent. Pampanga has an 18 percent positivity rate while the rest of the provinces have over 20 percent positivity rate. The highest positivity rate on a provincial level is Bulacan at 32 percent. This means that 1 in every 3 patients in that province will most likely test positive for the virus.

The average daily new cases is in the second column, while the third column shows the percentage change. Cebu saw a significantly decline in cases, Benguet had no change from the previous week and Isabela had the highest increase in cases.

The top 20 LGUs with the most cases are seen in the table below.

While Quezon City remained at the top with the highest average cases for the week, the following cities saw significant decline in cases: Pasay City, Malabon and Cebu City. The following LGUs saw significant increases (> 50 percent) in cases: Taguig, Mandaluyong, Marikina, and Navotas.

Sadly, majority of the hospitals have already filled hospital bed occupancy especially Makati where 99 percent hospital bed capacity and 90 percent ICU occupancy is reported. Notice, however, that other LGUs like Antipolo, Muntinlupa, Malabon, Imus and Cainta have ICU occupancies at 100 percent.

The daily attack rate is also highest in Mandaluyong, Makati, Marikina and Navotas.

We need to test more people…the data drop: 04.01.2021

The first day of April looks like it’s opening on a better note with 8,920 cases reported by the Health Agency for Maundy Thursday. But it isn’t.

As you comb through the infographics for the day, one can easily deduce that the lockdown and the calls for a stricter lockdown came two weeks late. Had the call been made two weeks ago, we would not be struggling the way we are today. Healthcare capacities have now breached the critical level of 70 percent. This data is inaccurate and most likely underreported as almost all hospitals in Mega Manila see queues of patients waiting at the throngs of the Emergency Rooms for someone to even attend to them.

The positivity rate is at an all time high of 21.1 percent (or almost 1 in every 4-5 people tested ending up positive for COVID-19). Worst of all is the number of active cases which are almost 140,000 or 18.4 percent of the total cases. This is one of the highest number of active cases in the world based on the number of positive cases for COVID-19. Unless the positivity rate drops together with the number of active cases, this surge will not be controlled before Easter Sunday and the ECQ should be extended further, notwithstanding the economic concerns of the business sector.

Why are we still seeing high cases in spite of the ECQ? And are the slightly lower cases the past two days due to the ECQ?

The answer is NO. The ECQ is not a miracle solution. The incubation period of SARS-COV2 is between 2-14 days. The duration of the incubation period here makes the control of the infectiousness of this virus a challenge. Shortening the duration of lockdowns and quarantine or isolation have the potential to create a false sense of complacency among patients who are asymptomatic and are not all tested and thereby jeopardizing any gain made from stricter lockdowns. Mobility is the key driver to this infectious disease, and sadly, is also the key driver to economic revival in the country. With the NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon contributing to an average of 80 percent of the daily total cases and are major centers of commerce in the country, the delicate balance of healthcare and economy may tip heavily in favor of the economy if the government does not offer assistance (financially or in kind or as tax rebates) to the business sector and the community. Shortening the stricter lockdown will have serious consequences to the healthcare sector and any gain made during the stricter lockdown can be wiped out in a week when easing mobility is considered.

The National Capital Region reports more than 5,000 cases today, marking a grim moment as it registers more than 56 percent of the total cases in the country. This is the highest percentage share for NCR in the past days. CALABARZON has 1,684 (19 percent), followed by Central Luzon with 882 (10 percent). These three regions alone account for an astounding 85 percent of the total cases in the country for today.

There were 45 ROFs included in todays case count and 31 cases with no information on a regional level.

In Mega Manila, Quezon City continued its quadruple digit roll with 1,047 cases (21 percent), followed by Manila with 783. Pasig is third with 410. Taguig, Caloocan, Makati, Marikina had less than 400 but more than 300 cases. Parañaque and Pasay had less than 300 but more than 200 cases. The cities with more than 100 but less than 200 cases were: Valenzuela, Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, and Muntinlupa. There were 13 cases from unknown LGUs.

As in the past days, 14 of 17 LGUs in NCR continue to dominate the top 20 cities with most cases, with ranks 1 to 12 all belonging to the NCR.

Among the provinces, Cavite led the pack with 527 cases. Three provinces in the CALABARZON region were among the top five. Aside from Cavite, Rizal and Laguna were those provinces.

106 deaths on the last day of March…the data drop: 03.31.2021

While there were relatively fewer new cases reported today, it was the deaths that took center stage during the 4PM announcement of the Department of Health daily COVID-19 situation.

There were 6,128 new cases reported today with 106 new deaths and less than 500 recoveries. This brings the total number of active cases to more than 130,000 or close to 18 percent! The total cases of COVID-19 in the country now approaches 750,000. While the Health Agency announces 19.9 percent positivity for March 30, 2021 (as of 12NN submission), the actual daily positive rate is more than 20 percent. In short, 1 in every 5 individuals tested will likely test positive.

The hospital capacity for ICU is almost at 80 percent utilization at NCR and close to 70 percent utilization of isolation facilities. Wards and ventilators availability has dwindled down with more than 60 percent of these now occupied.

In terms of positivity rate, note the graph of the Health Agency below, that compares the positivity in tests on April 3, 2020 when we had only a handful of testing centers and a few thousand tests done daily compared to March 29, 2021 where we no have over 200 laboratories and do an average of 50,000 tests daily. In the same graph, one can see that even during the first surge, we did not reach positivity rates of this proportion. This means that this second surge is an outbreak that will be challenging to control. And will definitely take a toll not only on life and the healthcare system but on the economy as well.

Today saw slightly lower numbers in the National Capital Region with less than 50 percent new cases (2,938). CALABARZON was in second with 1,108 (18 percent), Central Luzon with 548 (9 percent) and Cagayan Valley with 421 (7 percent). Four other provinces reported triple digits. They were: Central Visayas, CAR, Ilocos Region, and Western Visayas. There are 37 cases with no location on a regional level.

The National Capital Region has Quezon City remaining in the lead with 753 new cases. Manila came in second with 400 new cases. Caloocan City and Mandaluyong having less than 300 but more than 200 cases. Makati, Malabon, Las Piñas, Navotas, Parañaque, and Taguig had more than 100 but less than 200 cases. In spite of the lower cases, 14 of 17 LGUs in NCR were still in the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Cavite, Bulacan, and Rizal continued to dominate the cases for the day.

9,296 for a Tuesday is bad…the data drop: 03.30.2021

We regularly see a larger dip of around 20-25 percent in new cases on Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

Today, the Health Agency reports 9,296 new cases and 20.4 percent positivity rate is not good news. Our active cases are close to 125,000 (168 percent) and the Philippines is headed towards the 750,000 mark tomorrow. The Philippines ranked 8th yesterday, March 29, 2021 in the world.

The healthcare capacity is already spilling at the brim in the National Capital Region with 76 percent of ICU beds occupied and 68 percent of isolation beds filled.

With the current numbers, the weeklong ECQ will not be enough to bring our numbers down.

Today’s data drop showed NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon continuing the massive haul for the day, with NCR recording more than 53 percent of the total (4,950) of the new cases. CALABARZON had 1,460 (15.7 percent) and Central Luzon 803 (8.7 percent). Cagayan Valley had 634 (7 percent) new cases. These 4 regions alone contribute to more than 84 percent of the total cases.

Seven other regions reported triple digits. They were: CAR, Ilocos Region, Central and Western Visayas, Davao Region and MIMAROPA. There were 71 cases with no known location on a regional level.

In the NCR, Quezon City continued the lead with 918 cases, followed by Manila with 731 and Taguig with 547. Caloocan, Mandaluyong, and Las Piñas had more than 300 but less than 400 cases. Those with less than 300 but more than 200 cases were Makati, Parañaque, Pasay and Pasig. The cities of San Juan, Muntinlupa, and Navotas had more than 120 but less than 200 cases. Eight cases had no known location.

Fifteen of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities for today.

On a provincial level, the provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, and Cavite led the haul. All provinces in the top ten reported triple digit cases.

Based on OCTA data for the different LGUs in Mega Manila, this is where each city stands with respect to the attack rate and percentage rise in cases. The highest attack rate is Pateros at 68.08 per 100,000 with a 221 percent jump in cases for March 23 – 29, 2021. Pasay City is the only city that has seen a decline in cases but nevertheless has an attack rate of 55.69 per 100,000.

Breaking the ceiling…the data drop: 03.29.2021

Today marked a new high in the COVID-19 cases in the Philippines as we break the 10,000 mark for new cases in a single day. The Health Agency reports 10,016 new COVID-19 cases and a positivity rate of 18 percent. The Philippines broke into the top ten countries with highest cases in the world yesterday March 28, 2021, as the saga of the second season of this pandemic in the country bring us into another episode of Enhanced Community Quarantine today.

In order to make the reader understand the numbers in the infographics of the Department of Health, the positivity rate is the number of positives for March 29 based on reports submitted as of March 28, 2021 at 12NN. In short, as of March 28, 2021, 12NN, only 28,492 had been tested. And 5,128 of the 28,492 tested, tested positive. However, there are laboratories that will continue to submit data for those who got tested and tested positive up to the time they release the data at 4PM on the day of announcement. That is why tomorrow, we expect to have fewer cases than today because the data on a Tuesday are for tests done on a Sunday.

There are over 115,000 active cases and our total cases are now at 731,894.

The hospital care capacities are now at a highly critical level in Mega Manila as ICU bed occupancy reach a high of 76 percent and isolation beds are at 70 percent.

Undoubtedly the daily drop continued to reveal that the NCR + bubble contributed to 8,483 new cases or 85 percent of the total cases in the country. NCR accounted for 54.3 percent, CALABARZON 21 percent and Central Luzon 9.4 percent.

Four other regions recorded triple digits – Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas, Western Visayas and CAR.

In the National Capital Region alone, Quezon City continued to report quadruple digits with 1,019 new cases, followed by the City of Manila with 765. Marikina had 457 and Taguig 446 cases. Mandaluyong, Makati, Caloocan had more than 300 but less than 400 cases. Pasig, Pasay, Parañaque, and Las Piñas had more than 200 but less than 300 cases. Valenzuela, Navotas, and Malabon had more than 100 but less than 200 cases.

There were 74 cases with unknown localities in Mega Manila. Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases. The top 12 cities with most cases were all from NCR.

On a provincial level, Cavite led with 756 new cases followed by Laguna with 535, and Rizal with 525. Bulacan had 502 cases today.

Palm Sunday’s data drop

The Health Agency reports 9,475 new cases on Palm Sunday. While a teeny bit lower than the previous day, there is a large increase in the positivity rate now at 19.8 percent or 1 in every 5 patients who are tested will test positive. Although there were 22,000 recoveries in the recovery haul during the weekend, the total number of active cases still exceeded 100,000 (105,568 or 14.6 percent).

For the week of March 21-27, 2021 alone, the Philippines recorded 56,406 new cases.

As the NCR + bubble enters into ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) beginning tomorrow, let us hope that this will be enough to stem the unprecedented second surge we are experiencing. Because if this trend continues, we are on track for 1,000,000 total cases in the next four weeks or at worse, earlier.

Based on the data of the Department of Health COVID-19 tracker, notice in the screen capture provided below how the week of March 4-10, 11-17 and 18-24 behaved. The number of new cases for the week March 18-24 is almost 100 percent that seen on the week of March 4-10.

The reproduction rate for the country is around 1.6 with a wide 95 percent confidence interval (1.3 – 1.9). The wide interval is due to that fact that three regions – NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon account for more than 80 percent of the daily new cases in the country.

Todays numbers continue to show NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon dominating the haul. These 3 regions contribute to more than 81 percent of the total for the day. Other regions with triple digits were Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas, CAR, Western Visayas and Ilocos Region. There were 58 cases with no identified location on a regional level.

With 54 percent of the haul from the NCR, Quezon City finally breaks the 1,000 mark with 1,093 cases or 21.3 percent of the cases in Mega Manila. Manila has 816 or 16 percent of the total. This is followed by Pasig and Makati that have numbers greater than 400. Taguig, Caloocan, Parañaque have more than 300 but less than 400 cases. Mandaluyong and Pasay had more than 200 but less than 300. Las Piñas, Valenzuela, Navotas and Muntinlupa had more than 100 but less than 200 cases. There were 11 cases from unknown LGUs in NCR. Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Bulacan led the haul with 617 cases followed by Cavite with 574 and Rizal with 483. All provinces in the top ten report triple digits today.