801 new cases and 12 added deaths on 11.29.2022

The Health Agency announces 801 new cases on the low Tuesday with 10.8% positivity rate (which will continue to climb over the week). There are 12 added deaths today.

NCR took the haul with 277 (35%) new cases led by Quezon City with 72, Manila 39, Taguig 37, Makati 24, Caloocan 20, Parañaque 17 and Pasay City 12.

Provinces with more than 30 cases today were limited to 4: Cavite 36, Cebu 34, Rizal 31, and Negros Occidental 30.

More than 41% of the 1083 cases are from NCR on 11.28.2022

The Health Agency announces 1083 new cases with 10.4% positivity and 14 added deaths. Leading the haul was NCR with 452 cases or 42% of the day’s share.

Quezon City led with 99 cases followed by Manila with 98. Ten other LGUs reported lower double digits: Pasig 39, Makati 37, Taguig 23, Caloocan 20, Marikina 19, Parañaque, Pasay City and Valenzuela with 18 each, Las Piñas 16 and Muntinlupa 15.

Outside NCR, the following provinces and HUCs had more than 30 cases: Benguet 78 (with Baguio hauling 50 cases), Cavite 53, Cebu 52, Bulacan 52, Laguna 37 and Rizal 35.

The world in review and the data in 11.27.2022

The Health Agency announces 1326 new cases with 12% positivity rate for a little more than 10,000 individuals tests (one of the lowest testing in the past few months. There were 23 added deaths today.

The NCR owned more than 34% of the day’s cases with 457. With the uptick in cases in NCR, the day was led by Pasig City with 98 cases followed by Manila and Quezon City with 60 cases each. The other LGUs with double digits in Mega Manila were: Las Piñas 33, Parañaque 31, Makati 27, Caloocan 23, Taguig 22, Pasay City and Muntinlupa 18 each, Mandaluyong and Marikina 17 each, and Valenzuela with 12.

Outside NCR, the following provinces had more than 30 cases: Negros Occidental 58, Cebu 50, Cavite 48, Laguna 40, Rizal 42, Iloilo 31, Cagayan 34 and Benguet 33.

While understandably, the counting has become inaccurate because of the (1) basis for prevalence is RT-PCR and (2) delayed reports (in spite of the low number of tests), the NCR, which remains the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines has been the barometer for any uptick in cases. And with NCR seeing higher numbers (and a larger share of the day’s cases), we should be more cautious during the holiday gatherings and be mindful and responsible during the Christmas celebration.

THE GLOBAL DATA AS OF 20 NOVEMBER 2022 (NOV 23, ED 119, PUBLICATION WHO)

Based on data as of November 20, 2022, the number of weekly cases declined by 5% for the week of November 14-20, 2022 compared to the previous week. Weekly deaths also declined by 13% compared to the previous week.

At the regional level, the number of newly reported cases continued to decline except in the Region of the Americas which saw a 3% bump up and the South-East Asia Region which was up by 8%.Weekly deaths increased in the Western Pacific Region by 1%, African Region by 124% and South East Asia Region by 13%.

At the country level, the highest cases came from Japan (+18%), South Korea (+2%), USA (-3%), France (+24%), and China (-8%). Highest weekly deaths were from USA, Japan, China, France and Russia.

The WHO continues to monitor the global COVID-19 situation with a caution in the data interpretation as several countries have changed their COVID-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall number of tests performed an hence, lower cases detected.

Countries in East Asia are seeing increasing cases this past week, with Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong leading the pack. The reproduction numbers are >1.0 in China, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea. While the data is as of November 22, where the Rt in the Philippines is at 0.84 (+/- 0.05), the latest increase in cases in the Philippines has bumped up the Rt to 1.0 (+-0.05), with NCR alone at 1.25.

Testing in the Philippines, as exemplified with the NCR data with RT-PCR in the graph below (c/o Prof. Guido David) is also at an all time low, with total number of daily tests done similar to the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. Many of these tests are from hospitals as patients are required testing prior to some admission policies. This accounts for the increasing positivity rate in the NCR, which jumped from 7.5% the previous weeks to >10% yesterday. The overall positivity rate in the country stands at 12.1% on 11.26.2022. As the number of cases in NCR continue its upward climb, we are also seeing a rise of cases in the provinces and other highly urbanized cities. The data being provided should serve as a reminder that we need to stay vigilant and responsible as the holidays have begun. It should also serve as a reminder to the government that it needs a quicker and more agile response so that the economy is not affected with the rise in numbers as we are seeing now.

1874 new cases and 12.1% positivity for 11.26.2022

The Health Agency announces 1894 new cases with 23 added deaths and a rising positivity which is now at 12.1%. The biggest leap in positivity came from NCR which jumped from 7.6% last 10 days to 10.5% today. The NCR owned 536 of the day’s ases

This was led by Manila with 94 cases, Quezon City 86, Taguig 58, and Makati 54. The following LGUs reported less than 50 cases: Parañaque 33, Las Piñas 32, Pasig 29, Muntinlupa 26, Caloocan 23, Mandaluyong 16 and 15 each for Pasay City, San Juan and Navotas.

In the provinces, high double digits were noted in the following provinces led by Cebu with 118 cases. Others were: Cavite 77, Laguna 57, Rizal 55, Bulacan 64, Tarlac 32, Iloilo 37, Negros Occidental 55, Cagayan 47, Davao del Sur 49, Benguet 47, Kalinga 66 and Bukidnon 32.

Remember, we are under reported and the cases are under estimated. At the rate the uptick is being seen, please continue to wear a mask, avoid crowded places and try not to party too much. You may miss the holidays…

At the rate the cases are rising, the public is cautioned to observe minimum public health standards and please remember to be mindful of others as it is all our responsibility not to get others infected.

1353 new cases as positivity continued to climb to 11.9% on 11.25.2022

The Health Agency announces 1353 new cases with the positivity rate continuing its climb to 11.9% today. There were 28 added deaths. The NCR owned 34% of the cases with 459 cases.

Quezon City led the day’s haul with 102 cases followed by Manila with 85. Ten other LGUs in NCR had double digits: Valenzuela and Makati 37, Parañaque 29, Mandaluyong 26, Caloocan 24, Pasig and Taguig with 20 each, Pasay City and Las Piñas with 18 each and Marikina with 15.

In the provinces, the following reported more than 30 cases: Cebu 78, Benguet 74 (Baguio owning 51), Cavite 65, Bulacan 47, Laguna 48, Rizal 43, Davao del Sur 38, Pangasinan 33, and Nueva Vizcaya 30.

1141 new cases and 11.6% positivity on 11.24.2022

The Health Agency announces 1141 new cases with a positivity of 11.6% and 20 added deaths. NCR’s share is increasing and up at 28% today.

Twelve LGUs in NCR reported double digits: Quezon City 60, Manila 51, Pasig 33, Makati 32, Parañaque 20, Taguig and Las Piñas 18 each, Caloocan and Valenzuela 17 each, Mandaluyong 14, Muntinlupa 13 and Pasay City 12.

Provinces outside NCR with more than 30 cases were: Cebu 81, Negros Occidental 46, Rizal 45, Laguna 42, Cavite 34, Benguet 35, Iloilo and Davao del Sur 30 apiece.

Is the tide of cases shifting back to Mega Manila? Seems like it as the positivity rate in NCR jumps from 7.4% to more than 9%.

Positivity rate continues to climb at 11.4% on 11.23.2022

While the number of cases reported by the Health Agency is only at 703 today, the positivity rate climbed by more than 1% over a single day period to 11.4% (from a previous of 10.3% 7-day average). That’s because of very low testing (coming mostly from healthcare facilities) and reflecting how under reported the actual COVID19 cases are in the country. This means that of every 100 patients tested, 11 would be positive for COVID19.

NCR owned 167 (23.7%) of the day’s cases. Eight LGUs reported low double digits (<30). Quezon City 25, Parañaque 20, Manila 19, Pasig 16, Las Piñas and Marikina 14 each, Caloocan 12, and Makati 10.

In the provinces, Tarlac led the haul with 44 cases followed by Cavite and Cebu with 33 apiece and Iloilo at 30.

We should be trekking the quadruple digit tomorrow, if more RT-PCR tests are done. Mathematically, the number of daily cases are under reported by 20-25x.

The low Tuesday with 695 new cases and 15 added deaths on 11.22.2022

While the Health Agency announced 695 new cases (which is the low Tuesday), the positivity rate, however, jumped from 8.3% to 10.2% in a single day! Which means that there will be a jump in the number of cases in the next few days to quadruple digits.

The NCR owned 212 (or close to 1/3) of the cases with Manila leading the haul today with 42 cases. Those with double digits were: Quezon City 41. Makati 18, Pasig/Taguig/Caloocan with 15 cases each, Parañaque 14, Pasay City 12, and Las Piñas 11.

Only three provinces had more than 30 cases today – Cavite 48, Cebu 40 and Rizal 36.

938 new cases and 9 added deaths on 11.21.2022

The Health Agency announces 938 new cases and 9 added deaths today. The positivity rate is reset (because it is a Monday) and is at 8.5% today.

Leading the pack were the provinces with Cebu with 81 cases followed by Cavite 52, Laguna 45, Iloilo 35, Negros Oriental 33 and Benguet 32.

In NCR, Quezon City led with 40 cases followed by Makati with 32. Other double digit LGUs were: Pasig 19, Makati 16, Muntinlupa and Las Piñas 11 each.

The world in review and the data for 11.20.2022

The Health Agency announces 1063 new cases with 18 added deaths and a positivity rate of 10.2% today. While NCR owned 24% of the cases for the day (255), it was the provinces that owned majority of the cases.

Cebu led with 80 followed by Cavite 44, Benguet 43, Rizal 42, Iloilo 37 and Laguna 35.

In NCR, Quezon City had 47 cases followed by 34 in Manila. Ten other LGUs reported low double digits. Taguig 23, Pasig 21, Mandaluyong 18, Las Piñas 16, Caloocan 15; Parañaque, Pasay City and Muntinlupa 14 each; Makati 12, and Marikina 10. Only Pateros had zero COVID cases in NCR.

THE GLOBAL DATA AS OF 13 NOVEMBER 2022 (NOV 13, ED 118, PUBLICATION WHO)

This week saw a bump up in cases after a few consecutive weeks of decline.

Globally, the new weekly cases are up 2% for the week of November 7-13, compared to the previous week as >2.3M cases were reported. The real number is higher due to a decline in global testing. On the flip side is that the weekly deaths continued to decrease and is down by 30% compared to the previous week. This is the lowest report on mortality since the start of the pandemic.

On a regional level, newly reported weekly cases continued to increase in three WHO regions – Western Pacific Region (+18%), South East Asia Region (+15%) and Region of the Americas (+12%). The number of deaths continued to decline in the world except for the Western Pacific Region (+14%) and the Eastern Mediterranean Region (+7%). [Note in the graph the pink bar which represents the Western Pacific Region, where the Philippine belongs that there is an increase in cases.]

At the country level, the highest number of new weekly cases came from two countries that recently opened its borders to tourism: Japan had more than half a million cases this week – up by 25% and South Korea that had more than 330,000 cases, up by 19%). Only one other country saw increase in cases – USA (+6%). Rounding up the top five were Germany (-25%) and China (-22%).

Highest number of weekly deaths were from the US (-6%), Japan (+41%), Russia (-10%), China (-24%) and France (-10%).

The WHO says that “current trends in reported COVID-19 cases should be interpreted with caution as several countries have been progressively changing COVID-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected. COVID-19 prevalence surveys conducted in a number of countries have found that the number of reported COVID-19 cases is an underestimate of the actual number of cases in the population. Additionally, data from previous weeks are continuously updated to retrospective incorporate changes in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths made by countries.