The Health Agency reported 3,410 new cases on the last day of October for 2021.

With close to 6,000 recoveries, the active cases hover at 45,000.

There were 46,450 tests done last October 29 with a 7.2% positivity rate.

Even the healthcare utilization particularly ICU rates are lower both nationally (46%) and in the NCR (39%).

There were 128 additional deaths reported today.

NCR reported 370 or owned 16.7% of the total cases of the country today. While CALABARZON is back in second, Cagayan Valley and CAR still contributed significantly to the cases today.

On a provincial level, Isabela and Benguet were on top of the list.

Quezon City accounted for 26% of the cases in NCR. That means that one LGU alone accounted for more than 1/4 of the cases in Mega Manila. With lower cases today, 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty list. Which meant that the bar for number of cases to be in the top 20 has to be lower – now at 24 – as the ceiling. As the cases begin to wind down, the contribution of each LGU matters – and the objective is to drive down the numbers to single digit!

Striking is that among the top 10 LGUs with most cases, six LGUs outside of NCR are in the list, They include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Lubang, Bacolod City, Davao City and Cebu City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It’s been a continuously good week for the Philippines as the numbers dip down further to a 7-day average of around 4500 cases/day. At the current R, this should go further down as the first week of November. As we see no new variant of concern in the offing, the projected 2 week 7-day average should be around 3,000-4,000 cases/day.

Testing has slowed down significantly as well, but the over-all positivity rate has considerably dropped to < 10% in the last 2 weeks, with NCR reporting only 5% positivity rate and Cebu City reporting 2% positivity.

A quick look at our ASEAN neighbors show that as of October 28, Thailand continued to lead among ASEAN nations in the 7-day average of cases per day. Indonesia and Japan continue its triple digit numbers with Japan reporting less than 300 daily cases. This is, however, not corrected based on population size.

Factoring population size of the same select Asian countries in the above graph, in order to get the cases and deaths for COVID19 per capita, Singapore leads in the number of cases per million population, while Malaysia leads in the number of deaths per million population.

The reproduction rate for the same select countries shows both Singapore and South Korea with a R >1.0, while the other countries are seeing a continuing lower R. The most improved country this week was the Philippines, with a national R at 0.71 (+/- 0.05).

While the Health Agency reports 4,008 new cases today, with more recoveries, the active cases are now at less than 48,000. We will more or less end this week with a 7-day average of around 4500 cases/day.

There were a little more than 50,000 tests done on October 28 with a 7.8% positivity rate.

It was the deaths that was the shocker for the day. The Department of Health announced 423 deaths (most likely from backlogs but reported only today), as the Philippines crosses the 43,00 mark for deaths and 1.56% case fatality rate based on outcomes.

CASES

The NCR continued to stay on top among regions with most cases. However, it accounted for a lower 15.6% of the total national cases and is down to a positivity rate of 5% (compared to the national 7-day average of 7.8%). Regions in Northern Luzon are back on top with Cagayan Valley and CAR in second and third spot today.

On a provincial level, Isabela, Benguet and Nueva Vizcaya took the top three spots. Two other provinces in Northern Luzon are in the top 10 list – Ifugao and Cagayan.

It was inevitable them that on an LGU level, Baguio City would top the list as it had more cases than Quezon City today. While 9 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 most cases by city or municipality, five LGUs in the top ten were outside of NCR. They are: Zamboanga City, Davao City, Luna (Isabela), and Itogon (Benguet).

DEATHS

It was an interesting day for death reports, as the Philippines reported 423 deaths today. The highest in a single day. For today only, this is the breakdown for the death reports from the data drop of the Health Agency.

Todays deaths were mostly from September and October, and many more than a month late. There were 22 cases that went as far back as August 2021 and even one came from a year ago November 2020.

By region, it was Davao Region and Central Visayas that accounted for most of the death (late or not) reports.

On a provincial level, it was Davao Del Sur and Cebu Province that also led the deaths for the day.

Logically, on an LGU level, most deaths were from Davao City and several LGUs in the Cebu Province.

With the DoH adding more than 3,400 cases midday today to yesterday’s cases, the total cases for October 28 was really 7,133.

Hopefully, the announcement of the Health Agency on the 4,043 new cases is more accurate and we do not get SURPRISE mid day reports tomorrow. With more cases than recoveries, the active cases hover at the 50,000 mark as the DoH announces 52,064 tests done on October 27 with 8.6% positivity.

There were 44 new deaths added today.

NCR added 660 new cases (16.3%) of today’s total cases, for a R of 0.55 (+/- 0.05 confidence interval), to continue leading among regions with most cases but on the lower range of percentage shares for the nation. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are back in second and third spots as the economy in the NCR plus areas begin to reopen.

Rizal tops the provincial level, followed by Negros Oriental and Negros Occidental.

The story of the day are the various LGUs – cities and municipalities. While 11 of 17 LGUs in the NCR were still in the top 20 list, it was the top 10 that was the surprise. Only three LGUs from NCR were in the top 10 – ever leader Quezon City, Pasig and the city of Manila. Seven LGUs in the top 10 list were: Antipolo, Zamboanga City, Koronadal, Davao City, Lubang, General Santos and Dumaguete City.

Not bad for a Thursday haul as the Health Agency reports 3,694 cases today. With almost equal numbers recovering, the active cases drop to less than 50,000.

There were 50,755 tests done last October 26 with 8.6% positivity. There is likely a backlog in today’s data and will be reflected this week.

A total of 227 new deaths are reported today.

Health care utilization and ICU rate remains moderate in both the NCR and the national level.

UPDATE

With the announcement of adjustments of backlog cases, additional 3,439 new cases from September 29 to October 18 and added only to COVIDKAYA on October 27, puts the total of cases to 7,133 for October 28, 2021

Officially, the Philippines reported 7,133 newly announced cases on October 28. Most of the cases added are considered recovered while only 22 remained active. Two deaths were reported from this ‘second’ report.

The post will not be complete if the granular data for the 7,133 cases are not uploaded on the blog.

For completeness, NCR continued to lead with 1,303 or 18.2% of the cumulative total cases for yesterday and the late report today. CALABARZON was in second, while CAR came in third.

On a provincial level, Benguet took the lead, but several provinces in the CALABARZON region were in the top ten, including Laguna, Rizal, Batangas and Cavite.

Quezon City continued to be the LGU to beat on a city/municipality level, but was the only LGU in the NCR in the top 5. The other LGUs in the top five were: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Davao City and Antipolo City (2nd to fifth spot in that order).

The Philippines is seeing a decline in cases as the Health Agency reports 3,218 new cases today. With more than 6000 recoveries, the active cases are down to a tad above 50,000. The last time we saw cases this low as March 7, 2021 with 3,271 cases.

Total tests done last October 25 was more than 41,000 with 7.6% positivity rate.

ICU utilization rate is at 42% in the NCR and 51% average nationally.

It is the deaths that came to haunt us with 271 deaths reported today.

The National Capital Region accounted for 18% of the total cases in the country today. Cagayan Valley and CAR were in second and third spots, while Central Luzon and CALABARZON are seeing dramatic decline in cases.

Among provinces, those in Northern Luzon continued to be among the top 10. They are: Isabela, Ifugao, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Cagayan.

On an LGU level, Davao City topped the most number of cases today. Eleven of 17 LGUs were from NCR, while Lubang, Zamboanga City, and Baguio City were among the top 10 LGUs with highest cases.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Of the 9 LGUs that were major problems at the beginning of the last surge, it is Cebu City that shone. The Queen City of the South is the only LGU in the group that now as VERY LOW RISK and is tagged in blue. With an average of 18 new cases/day and a positivity rate of 2%, it shows that even in an area as populous and congested as this city, getting out of the pandemic is possible. Their incidence is 1.72/100,000 population, an R of 0.42, HCUR of 19% and ICU utilization rate of 29% is an outstanding feat.

Note that in the plus 8 areas, only Laguna and Pampanga remain at moderate risk based on the indicators in the COVIDACTNOW and do not reflect the alert level ratings of the DoH and IATF.

The numbers are pretty much the same today as yesterday. But the Health Agency poured in their backlogs of previous days to a day where we expected lower cases.

Today, the Department of Health announces 4,393 new cases from 35,265 tests done on October 24 with an 8.5% positivity rate. Which means that in reality, based on the tests, the total new cases should be around 3K, but backlogs most likely accounted for the no significant change in total new cases for the day.

There were 135 new deaths announced today. And that’s pretty high for only 4,393 new cases for the day, as the deaths are really late reports.

In reality, NCR isn’t really doing too well the past days. Cases are slightly up and today, the region owned 25% or one-fourth of the total cases in the country. Mega Manila had almost the combined total of both Central Luzon and CALABARZON.

On a provincial level, Rizal took the lead, followed by Bulacan and Cavite.

And among cities and municipalities, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were glaringly in the top twenty LGUs with most cases for today. The other 8 LGUs outside of NCR in the list are: Zamboanga City, Davao City, Lubang, Baguio City, Antipolo, Cainta, Bacolod City and Dumaguete City. In the NCR, the City of Manila had more cases today than the previous days and recorded triple digits at 151 to rank second among LGUs in the country with most cases.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

While the Health Agency considers NCR still at moderate risk, using the metrics of ADAR (incidence), infection rate (R), Health care and ICU utilization rate, and positivity of tests, compared to smaller regions, provinces and LGUs, metrics would show how fairly well 14 of 17 LGUs are fairing much better this past week than the previous. Only Mandaluyong, San Juan and Valenzuela have ADAR that would still be considered as High Risk. In general, the reproduction rate of most of the LGUs are below 0.5, except for Manila, Pasay, Parañaque, Pasig, Mandaluyong and Valenzuela. Over-all, however, the Rt of NCR stands at 0.49, driven by the other smaller LGUs with lower R (Navotas, Malabon and Pateros). Only the City of Muntinlupa remains high risk in ICU utilization rate in spite of the low 7-day average of 24 daily cases. That is because this city has very few hospitals that are highly equipped for intensive care capacity. The City of Makati is at moderate risk for ICU rate while the rest of the LGUs have ICU utilizations less than 60%.

The positivity rate of Mega Manila is at 6%. Lower than the cumulative National Average of 13.7% as of October 25, 2021. This means the driving force for under testing are the regions OUTSIDE of NCR especially those that are not as highly urbanized. The under testing is a cause for concern and to reiterate, if you do not test, you cannot trace. If you cannot trace then all these face shields, distancing, crowding and levels of quarantine are useless and baseless.

The week starts off with some good news as the Health Agency reports 4,405 new cases, with active cases now down to less that 58,000. There were more than 47,000 tests done last October 23, with a 9% positivity rate.

There are 149 new deaths reported today.

The NCR accounts for almost 20% (1/5) of the national cases. And while some analysts may say that this is a low number, this is actually moderate risk because the vaccination rate in the NCR is the highest in any region in the country. Based on eligible adult population, the IATF pegs the fully vaccinated rate to be around 80%.

The other problem in the daily numbers is that the cases in the other regions are largely an undercount of the actual cases in the areas. There are more patients not tested than those tested and contact tracing is most likely very low in the far flung areas or in LGUs with minimal resources.

The lowest cases in the top twenty LGUs with most cases is now 30. Which means that on the average, if an LGU records more than 40 cases for the day, it is most likely among the top 20 LGUs with most cases in the whole nation.

After NCR is Cagayan Valley which has more than 500 cases.

Many provinces in Northern Luzon were in the top ten, with Isabela province remaining in first spot. The other provinces from the north in the top ten are: Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan, and Pangasinan.

Among LGUs, 12 of 17 LGUs in the top twenty list are from NCR. In the top 10, however, are 5 LGUs outside of Mega Manila. They are: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Davao City, Bacolod City, and Dumaguete.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

While the Health Agency declared the country at ‘low risk’ due to the declining cases, it has kept some areas under the category of ‘moderate risk’, including the National Capital Region.

Today’s report features a situation on fourteen other LGUs in the country with updated information on how they are doing in the control of COVID-19 in their locality. These are areas outside of the National Capital Region.

Notice that of the 14, of concern is Lubang in Mindoro Occidental, a small municipality of 20,000 people with an increase of cases by 580% for an ADAR of 170/1000,000 population in that LGU. Its Rt is up at 3.61 and a positivity rate of 42%. Dumaguete, remains in critical risk due to the high utilization for hospitalization and Intensive Care Units as well as positivity rate. The ADAR is at 19.85/100,000.

In high risk are Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Tagum (Davao del Norte), Santiago (Isabela), and Bayombong (Nueva Vizcaya). Notice how high the positivity rates are in these places.

While Baguio City, Tuguegarao, Naga City and Cainta (Rizal) are at moderate risk, only Cainta has testing at 10%. The other three LGUs are doing badly at testing with rates as high as 56% for Tuguegarao, 42% for Naga City and 34% for Baguio City (where ironically is home to the tracing czar for the COVID-19 response in the country).

Davao City, Antipolo and Iloilo City are now low risk.

The Health Agency reports another 5K plus cases for the third consecutive day. Today, however, was at the lower spectrum of the predicted 5-6 range for the weekend with 5,279 new cases.

With more recoveries than cases, the active cases are a little above 60,000.

There were close to 53,000 tests done last October 22, with a 10.3% positivity rate.

There are 208 new deaths announced today. This brings the case fatality rate for outcomes to 1.55%. The gap between the case fatality rate of 1.52% by the Department of Health has narrowed (vs. the case fatality rate for outcomes using outcomes – recoveries and deaths as denominator instead of total cases) because the number of active cases have decreased.

ICU utilization rate in the National Capital Region is lower at 46% and overall hospitalization is less than 40%. ICU utilization rate nationally is at 53% as some regions are still struggling with higher cases compared to their health capacity. Hopefully, the tide turns around the last week of October.

NCR accounted for 19% of today’s total cases with 1,010 new cases. Its third straight day also of recording four digits. Cagayan Valley is in second spot, while Central Luzon in third. Except for BARMM and Eastern Visayas, all regions recorded triple digit cases.

On a provincial level, Isabela continued to lead. Pangasinan, Nueva Vizcaya and Cagayan are the provinces in Northern Luzon that are among the top 10 with most cases.

Among cities/municipalities, 11 of 17 LGUs in the top 20 list are from Mega Manila. In the top ten were five LGUs from NCR while the other five were outside of NCR. LGUs outside of Mega Manila in the top ten today are: Zamboanga City, Davao City, Lubang Island, Bacolod City and Baguio City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The week saw continuing decline of cases in the Philippines from a 8,000 the previous week to 5,500 daily 7-day moving average. Notice the steep decline in cases after peaking in August/September. We are close to the pre-surge levels of May 2021 and hopefully can bring this down to the same levels as December of 2020, by December this this.

The 7-day death average is, however, relatively high at 145 relative to the large drop in cases.

Testing has declined as well, but notice that while the average tests are down to 50,000+, the positivity rate has also significantly dropped to 12.4%.

Among select Asian countries, the Philippines slipped to third place with a 7-day average down to 5,700 as of October 22. Enviably are Indonesia and Japan that are enjoying all time lows with triple digits. Indonesia recorded a 7-day average of around 800 daily cases, while Japan is below the 500 mark.

However, one must take into consideration the cases and deaths in relation to the POPULATION SIZE of the country. When this is factored in, Singapore, a country of less than 6M and is seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases in the tiny country in the equator is seeing the highest number of cases per capita (per million population). It has close to 600 cases/M while Indonesia, a country with close to 275M people has around 3 cases/M!

In terms of deaths, Malaysia and Singapore lead in deaths per capita, while the Philippines is in third spot. Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan have lower deaths per million population (<1/M) from COVID-19.

The reproduction number is declining in all countries in the region, except for Japan and Indonesia that saw a slight upward bump but are still way below the 1.0. Only Singapore has an effective rate >1.0 (1.10). The Philippines has a Rt ~ 0.7 (+/-0.05) as of October 18, 2021.

It seems that the weekend is on track for seeing cases between 5-6K, as estimated, where the 7-day average by end of the month of October should have dropped to around 5,000.

With 5,807 new cases announced by the Health Agency today, the Philippines has a 7-day average of around 5,700/day. Total tests done on October 21 was 58,834 with a positivity rate of 10.3%. ICU utilization in the NCR remains at less than 50%, but depending on the LGU, this will vary and remains highest in Muntinlupa City.

Total deaths announced today was 65.

While the country enjoyed a tad bit lower cases today, it was the NCR that pulled in a surprise with 21% or more than 1/5 of the total share of today’s total. CALABARZON came in second with half the total of NCR’s numbers. The other regions saw a slight drop in cases.

Isabela Province topped the provincial level, but two other provinces in the north of Luzon – Pangasinan and Cagayan – were in the top ten.

The telling story are the cases in the LGU level where 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top 20 list. When most of the LGUs in NCR are part of the top twenty, on a day when the over-all total cases are slightly lower, you know that NCR will account for a higher share than the rest. Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Davao City and Tuguegarao were among the top 10.

As the day drew to a close for the week, the Health Agency reports 5,823 new cases today.

There were 58,273 tests done on October 20 with a positivity rate of 11.6%.

It announced 283 new deaths today.

ICU utilization rate in NCR is now below 50% with hospitalization rates averaging 40%.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

To show how much improved the situation is in the National Capital Region (Mega Manila), today’s monitoring report shows the significant decline in the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases. The positivity rate of the national capital is down at 8% versus the national average of 10-12%. Utilizing the indicators of incidence rate, Rt (infection), Health care and ICU utilization rate, there has been a 43% decline of cases since the past week. ADAR is also down to moderate at 7.40/100,000 population, while the R is at a low of 0.46 (below 0.5). We will need to sustain this reproduction number and keep it below 0.5 for the whole of October to the end of November in order to see an unprecedented low of cases in the capital. Only Caloocan, City of Manila, and Mandaluyong have Rt > 0.5 for now, but this should be manageable in the next few weeks. It is also important that ALL the LGUs do not digress from the current trend. If one LGU digresses from the current declining cases, this will affect all the other LGUs in the next few weeks. ICU utilization is highest in Muntinlupa and Makati, while moderate in Quezon City.

The NCR saw a four digit record today with 1,031 new cases, but this was expected because the region accounts for around 17-22% of the total daily cases. Except for Eastern Visayas and BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits, with Cagayan Valley still reporting a high of 849 cases.

On a provincial level, three provinces in Cagayan Valley are among the top ten provinces with most cases for the day. They are: Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela and Cagayan. Another province in North Luzon joined the top ten – La Union.

Among cities and municipalities, 8 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty most cases for today. It was Quezon City and Parañaque City that led the haul. However, it is disturbing that many municipalities were in the top twenty list, mostly from Northern Luzon. Places like Solano, San Manuel, Tadian, Flora, and Bagabag should be monitored closely.