Areas doing good, doing bad and the data for 10.25.2021

The week starts off with some good news as the Health Agency reports 4,405 new cases, with active cases now down to less that 58,000. There were more than 47,000 tests done last October 23, with a 9% positivity rate.

There are 149 new deaths reported today.

The NCR accounts for almost 20% (1/5) of the national cases. And while some analysts may say that this is a low number, this is actually moderate risk because the vaccination rate in the NCR is the highest in any region in the country. Based on eligible adult population, the IATF pegs the fully vaccinated rate to be around 80%.

The other problem in the daily numbers is that the cases in the other regions are largely an undercount of the actual cases in the areas. There are more patients not tested than those tested and contact tracing is most likely very low in the far flung areas or in LGUs with minimal resources.

The lowest cases in the top twenty LGUs with most cases is now 30. Which means that on the average, if an LGU records more than 40 cases for the day, it is most likely among the top 20 LGUs with most cases in the whole nation.

After NCR is Cagayan Valley which has more than 500 cases.

Many provinces in Northern Luzon were in the top ten, with Isabela province remaining in first spot. The other provinces from the north in the top ten are: Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan, and Pangasinan.

Among LGUs, 12 of 17 LGUs in the top twenty list are from NCR. In the top 10, however, are 5 LGUs outside of Mega Manila. They are: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Davao City, Bacolod City, and Dumaguete.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

While the Health Agency declared the country at ‘low risk’ due to the declining cases, it has kept some areas under the category of ‘moderate risk’, including the National Capital Region.

Today’s report features a situation on fourteen other LGUs in the country with updated information on how they are doing in the control of COVID-19 in their locality. These are areas outside of the National Capital Region.

Notice that of the 14, of concern is Lubang in Mindoro Occidental, a small municipality of 20,000 people with an increase of cases by 580% for an ADAR of 170/1000,000 population in that LGU. Its Rt is up at 3.61 and a positivity rate of 42%. Dumaguete, remains in critical risk due to the high utilization for hospitalization and Intensive Care Units as well as positivity rate. The ADAR is at 19.85/100,000.

In high risk are Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, Tagum (Davao del Norte), Santiago (Isabela), and Bayombong (Nueva Vizcaya). Notice how high the positivity rates are in these places.

While Baguio City, Tuguegarao, Naga City and Cainta (Rizal) are at moderate risk, only Cainta has testing at 10%. The other three LGUs are doing badly at testing with rates as high as 56% for Tuguegarao, 42% for Naga City and 34% for Baguio City (where ironically is home to the tracing czar for the COVID-19 response in the country).

Davao City, Antipolo and Iloilo City are now low risk.

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