NCR’s status and the data for 10.26.2021

The numbers are pretty much the same today as yesterday. But the Health Agency poured in their backlogs of previous days to a day where we expected lower cases.

Today, the Department of Health announces 4,393 new cases from 35,265 tests done on October 24 with an 8.5% positivity rate. Which means that in reality, based on the tests, the total new cases should be around 3K, but backlogs most likely accounted for the no significant change in total new cases for the day.

There were 135 new deaths announced today. And that’s pretty high for only 4,393 new cases for the day, as the deaths are really late reports.

In reality, NCR isn’t really doing too well the past days. Cases are slightly up and today, the region owned 25% or one-fourth of the total cases in the country. Mega Manila had almost the combined total of both Central Luzon and CALABARZON.

On a provincial level, Rizal took the lead, followed by Bulacan and Cavite.

And among cities and municipalities, 12 of 17 LGUs in NCR were glaringly in the top twenty LGUs with most cases for today. The other 8 LGUs outside of NCR in the list are: Zamboanga City, Davao City, Lubang, Baguio City, Antipolo, Cainta, Bacolod City and Dumaguete City. In the NCR, the City of Manila had more cases today than the previous days and recorded triple digits at 151 to rank second among LGUs in the country with most cases.


While the Health Agency considers NCR still at moderate risk, using the metrics of ADAR (incidence), infection rate (R), Health care and ICU utilization rate, and positivity of tests, compared to smaller regions, provinces and LGUs, metrics would show how fairly well 14 of 17 LGUs are fairing much better this past week than the previous. Only Mandaluyong, San Juan and Valenzuela have ADAR that would still be considered as High Risk. In general, the reproduction rate of most of the LGUs are below 0.5, except for Manila, Pasay, Parañaque, Pasig, Mandaluyong and Valenzuela. Over-all, however, the Rt of NCR stands at 0.49, driven by the other smaller LGUs with lower R (Navotas, Malabon and Pateros). Only the City of Muntinlupa remains high risk in ICU utilization rate in spite of the low 7-day average of 24 daily cases. That is because this city has very few hospitals that are highly equipped for intensive care capacity. The City of Makati is at moderate risk for ICU rate while the rest of the LGUs have ICU utilizations less than 60%.

The positivity rate of Mega Manila is at 6%. Lower than the cumulative National Average of 13.7% as of October 25, 2021. This means the driving force for under testing are the regions OUTSIDE of NCR especially those that are not as highly urbanized. The under testing is a cause for concern and to reiterate, if you do not test, you cannot trace. If you cannot trace then all these face shields, distancing, crowding and levels of quarantine are useless and baseless.

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