The last day of August 2022 had the Health Agency reporting 1558 new cases with 41 added deaths and a slight bump up in the positivity rate to 11.8%. The lower cases today is due to the fact that Monday, August 29 was a holiday and the long weekends tend to show lower cases because of either non-testing or that some testing facilities are not operational on these days.

The NCR owned 580 (37.2%) of the cases today.

Only Quezon City continued to report triple digits for the day with 153 cases. Thirteen other LGUs in NCR saw double digits: Manila 67, Makati 50, Parañaque 43, Pasig 42, Mandaluyong 36, Las Piñas 34, Marikina 27, Taguig 26, Caloocan 25, Pasay City 24, Muntinlupa 20, Valenzuela 14, and San Juan 10.

Only 4 provinces had more than 50 but less than 100 cases in the country as even the provinces and HUCs outside of NCR were seeing declining cases today. These were: Davao del Sur 65 (with Davao City accounting for 60), Cavite 64, Laguna 59 and Iloilo 57.

The Health Agency announces 1672 new cases (one of the lowest in the past weeks) but the number of deaths continued to be high with 53 announced today. Positivity rate is stable at 11.6%. NCR owned 563 of the cases.

Of course, the low data today is a reflection of the pattern seen on Tuesdays (for tests done on Sunday). Because Monday, August 29 was a holiday, we most likely should see the same trend tomorrow.

Quezon City was the lone LGU that reported triple digits in the country with 108 cases. In the NCR, twelve other LGUs posted double digits: Manila 88, Makati 65, Parañaque 59, Pasig 48, Pasay City 36, Taguig 35, Mandaluyong 24, Muntinlupa 23, Las Piñas 20, Caloocan 16, Marikina 14 and San Juan 11.

Provinces that reported more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cavite 91, Bulacan 90, Davao del Sur 84 (Davao City owned 82 of the cases), Rizal 76 and Pampanga 51.

The Health Agency announces a total of 19,262 cases for the week August 22-28, 2022 (-19% from the week of August 15-21 where the country had 23,883 cases). The 7-day average is now less than 3000 (at 2752 cases vs 3412 the week prior). Despite the lower cases, the severe and critical cases are up with 110 added this week (0.62% of new cases) compared to 101 (0.44%) the week prior. There were 316 added deaths, 94 of which occurred recently (from August 15-28).

Healthcare utilization is lower for both non-ICU (28.1% vs 30.2% the week prior) and ICU bed utilization at 24.9% (vs. 27% the week prior). However, severe and critical admissions comprised 10.5% of total COVID-19 admissions this week compared to 9.7% of the cases the week prior (when there were more COVID cases).

There were 2573 new cases today with 53 added deaths. The positivity rate is reset today and is now at a low 11.6%. As the national cases decline, the hotbed of the country – the National Capital Region – accounts for the greater share of the pie, with 891 (35%) of the cases.

In NCR, 2 LGUs continue to report triple digits – Quezon City 208 and Manila 139. Twelve LGUs had double digits: Makati 88, Pasig and Parañaque 71 each, Las Piñas 49, Pasay City 42, Taguig 37, Muntinlupa 33, Valenzuela and Marikina 32 each, Mandaluyong 31, Caloocan 29, and San Juan 10.

Outside of NCR, four provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 146, Rizal 118, Laguna 102 and Davao del Sur 101 (with Davao City owning 88 of the cases).

Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases today were: Bulacan 85, Cebu 86, Iloilo 67, Cagayan Province 66 and Isabela 52.

The Health Agency announces 2318 new cases with 54 added deaths today. Positivity rate improved to 14.1% from a previous 14.3%. In today’s blog is the analysis of the projections from Prof. Guido David and the data from Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 data (on https://ourworldindata.org).

Two LGUs in NCR reported triple digits today – Quezon City 174 and Manila 104. Twelve of the LGUs continued to report double digits but several of them are seeing lower cases. Those with double digits were: Makati 73, Parañaque 65, Pasig 61, Taguig 58, Muntinlupa 40, Pasay City 35, Marikina 34, Mandaluyong 32, Caloocan 27, Las Piñas 26, Valenzuela 26 and San Juan 11.

Outside of NCR, triple digits were seen in the provinces of Cavite 121, Bulacan 103, and Rizal 102.

Only three provinces reported more than 50 but less than 100 cases. They were: Laguna 82, Cebu 51 and Davao del Sur 57 (with Davao City accounting for 55 of the cases). Areas with higher than usual cases today were: Benguet 30, Bukidnon 36 and Palawan 25.

Prof. Guido David provides an overview on the COVID-19 situation in the country and in the National Capital Region, the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines.

The 7-day average based on August 27, 2022 data is at 2892 daily cases, which the NCR, which owns around 30% of the national cases continues to decline in Rt and positivity. If the current situation maintains the same mathematical modeling, we expect lower cases by the end of September. Hopefully, these would translate also to more reliable numbers as many of the cases in more highly urbanized areas in Metro Manila and the country are not counted because the Philippines only includes those testing positive by RT-PCR.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The current situation in the Philippines shows that the reproduction rate is flat at 1.01 (+/- 0.05)[comparable to the data above of Prof. Guido David where the difference is around 0.1], which means that the cases are on a very slow decline. With the 7-day average positivity rate hovering at 14.3% (a significant drop from >18% 2 weeks ago), the average daily cases have also declined by 10-15% over the past week.

Japan and South Korea remain to be the only countries reporting six digit daily cases, while Taiwan continued to report five digits.

On a per capita basis (per million population), South Korea has the highest cases in East Asia at 2119/million population, eclipsing Japan (1702/million) and Taiwan (1019/million). Hong Kong and Singapore continue to report triple digits per million cases, while the rest have lower numbers including the Philippines which is now down to 27/million (from a previous 35-40/million).

Reproduction rates of all countries in the East Asian region are stable (which means that the following week will more or less provide the same statistics with a slow decline among countries with R> 0.9), while countries with R<0.8 (Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei) will continue to see continued decline in cases as natural immunity from infection spreads across the region.

The Health Agency announces 2565 new cases today with a positivity rate that has remained stable at 14.3% for the past days. There were, however 54 additional deaths today (highest from the past few weeks). NCR owned 865 or more than 1/3 of the country’s cases for the day.

The top hauler for the day went to Quezon City that continued to report not only triple digits but more than 200 cases (232 for today). Thirteen other LGUs in NCR reported double digits: Manila 99, Makati 69, Parañaque 66, Pasig 63, Las Piñas 58, Taguig 55, Pasay City 52, Mandaluyong 34, Valenzuela 32, Muntinlupa 28, Caloocan 26, Marikina 24 and San Juan 10.

Provinces outside of NCR that reported triple digits were: Cavite 120, Rizal 104 and Davao del Sur 102 (with Davao City contributing 84 of their cases). Provinces that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases today were: Laguna 76, Bulacan 97, Pampanga 85, Iloilo 63, Cebu 86, Cagayan Province 55, and Isabela 67.

Areas that saw higher than usual cases were: Bukidnon 43, Camarines Sur 35, and Zamboanga del Sur 47.

The Health Agency reports 2986 new cases as the positivity rate plateaued at 14.3% today. However, the deaths continued to pile up with 40 added. The NCR accounted for 29.2% of the day’s cases with 872.

In NCR, Quezon City and Manila were the LGUs that reported triple digits with 184 and 125, respectively. Double digits were seen in Makati 87, Pasig 73, Taguig 70, Parañaque 47, Las Piñas 46, Muntinlupa 41, Caloocan and Pasay City 38 each, Mandaluyong and Marikina 34 each, Valenzuela 31 and San Juan 12.

Outside of NCR, four provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 173, Rizal 119, Bulacan 112 and Laguna 107. Those with more than 50 cases but less than 100 were: Batangas 58, Pampanga 76, Nueva Ecija 72, Tarlac 53, Iloilo 57, Negros Occidental 84, Cebu 83, Cagayan Province 67, Davao del Sur 99, La Union 60, Baguio City 99.

Areas that saw higher than usual numbers today were: Ilocos Norte 43, Davao del Norte 34, Benguet 36, Kalinga 21, Mountain Province 21, Bukidnon 25 and Albay 27.

Reminder to the readers that these numbers may not reflect the actual COVID-19 cases in the country as testing has declined. Death is also a lagging indicator and may not reflect the true cases of death in the country due to COVID-19.

The Health Agency announces 3126 new cases with 46 added deaths and a positivity rate of 14.3% today. The NCR owned 28.4% (887) of the day’s cases.

In NCR, only Quezon City reported triple digits at 202. Thirteen LGUs reported double digits: Manila 93, Parañaque 91, Pasig 75, Makati 73, Las Piñas 62, Taguig 59, Mandaluyong and Marikina 37 each, Pasay City 36, Caloocan 35, Muntinlupa 34, Valenzuela 25 and San Juan 14.

Outside of NCR, Laguna led the pack with 135 cases followed by Cavite 130, Davao del Sur 125, Bulacan 105 and Rizal 102.

Provinces and HUCs with more than 50 cases today were: Batangas 67, Pampanga 59, Nueva Ecija 65, Tarlac 70, Iloilo 77, Negros Occidental 66, Cebu 97, Isabela 52, Baguio City 55 and Zamboanga del Sur 56.

Cases today were 100% higher than yesterday as the Health Agency announces 3580 new cases. It was also the highest number of deaths since May 2022, where 50 deaths were announced today. Positivity rate is at 14.2% (up 0.4% from yesterday). Today’s numbers is an unusual jump from the past Wednesdays following the low Tuesday data.

Today’s cases were led by Quezon City that reported 281 cases. Three other LGUs with triple digits were: Manila 158, Makati 119, Parañaque 103. Double digits came from 11 other LGUs: Taguig 87, Pasig 76, Las Piñas 60, Pasay City 59, Mandaluyong 50, Caloocan 48, Muntinlupa 47, Marikina 42, Valenzuela 35, San Juan 16 and Malabon 14.

Outside of NCR, six Provinces reported triple digits. They were: Cavite 180, Laguna 139, Rizal 130, Davao del Sur 119, Bulacan 113 and Cebu 106.

The provinces and HUCs with more than 50 cases but less than 100 were: Iloilo 98, Batangas 93, Cagayan de Oro City 73, Negros Occidental 70, Pampanga 63, Nueva Ecija 61, Pangasinan 57, Baguio City 55, Cagayan Province 53 and Isabela 52.

We reiterate that these daily new cases are from RT-PCR results only and do not include those that test positive on rapid antigen.

The Health Agency announces 1735 new cases with 40 added deaths and a positivity rate of 13.8% today. This is one of the lowest cases we have had since mid-July when we averaged 1600++ cases. The NCR owned 528 (30%) of the cases for the day.

Only Quezon City reported triple digits with 124 cases. Twelve LGUs reported double digits: Manila 85, Makati 58, Pasay City 42, Parañaque 37, Taguig 35, Pasig 29, Las Piñas 24, Mandaluyong 22, Caloocan 16, Muntinlupa 15, Marikina 12, and Valenzuela 11.

None of the provinces or HUCs outside of NCR reported triple digits today. Those that reported more than 50 cases were: Cavite 98, Laguna 54, Rizal 62, Bulacan 73, Pampanga 57, Davao del Sur 60 and Cebu 60.

From the period August 15-21, 2022, the DoH reported 23,883 new COVID-19 cases (based on PCR results) or a 15% decline in cases compared to the week of August 8-14 where the country had 28,008 cases for that week. This means that the 7-day average as of yesterday, August 21, was at 3412 cases/day. There were 101 severe and critical cases (same as last week) but the deaths stood out at 321 added deaths for the week that was (90 or 28% of the deaths were ‘fresh’ or occurred within the last two weeks August 8-21, 2022). The deaths the past week was 40% higher than the previous week (where there were 229 deaths reported).

Healthcare utilization for non-ICU beds was at 30.2% (6677 of 22076 beds), down from 30.9% (6781 of 21968 beds) the previous week. ICU beds was also down to 27% (699 of 2586 beds) versus the previous week of 28% (719 of 2571 beds). There were 811 severe and critically ill admitted patients compared to 822 the previous week.

Note that there is a large under reporting of cases as only PCR tests are being counted. Many use antigen test kits (and do not use them correctly because they presume that when they test on day 1, and they test negative, they do not have COVID-19). Reminder to the public that there are limitations for antigen test kits. Antigen test kits are useful when they demonstrate positive results. Data shows that in the Omicron waves, positivity in antigen tests tended to be negative in the first 48 hours, especially among patients with mild symptoms.

The Health Agency announces 3077 new cases today, with 29 added deaths and the positivity rate is now reset and is at 13.9%. NCR, however, owned close to 40% of the cases today with 1168 cases.

Cases in NCR was led by four LGUs with triple digits: Quezon City 275, Manila 141, Pasig 109, and Makati 105. Double digits came from 11 other LGUs: Parañaque 87, Taguig 65, Las Piñas 60, Pasay City 59, Marikina 55, Mandaluyong 33, Valenzuela 49, Caloocan 36, Muntinlupa 34, San Juan 15 and Malabon 10.

Outside of NCR, only three provinces reported triple digits today – all from CALABARZON. They were: Cavite 177, Laguna 126 and Rizal 103.

Provinces/HUCs with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cebu 94, Batangas 93, Bulacan 93, Cagayan Province 81, Iloilo 76, Isabela 64, Davao del Sur 63, Negros Occidental 57, and Nueva Vizcaya 50.

Three provinces had unusually higher numbers today: Agusan del Sur 22, Butuan City 20, and Surigao del Sur 24.