The last day of February 2022 comes with good news. It’s been awhile since we saw triple digits.

The Health Agency announces 951 new cases based on 5% positivity (now at low risk in testing) from 22407 tests done last February 26. The active cases drop to a little more than 52,000 cases with 91.4% of them being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the cases reported today, 94% are recent (last two weeks) with NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas leading the regions. NCR accounted for an average of 1/4 of the national cases.

There are 50 deaths added today. Of the deaths, 90% of them were recent (January and February 2022) while only 4 deaths were from last year (September and June 2021).

Three duplicates were removed from the total, of which one case was a recovery.

There were 36 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were actually deaths after final validation.

The flipside of the coin to today’s good news on national numbers is the regional breakdown. The NCR had 274 or almost 30% of the total cases in the country. The only other region with triple digits is CALABARZON with 139. All other region reported double digits with two regions – BARMM (6) and CARAGA (8) – reporting single digit.

In Mega Manila, only the City of Manila broke the glass ceiling – 76 cases! All other LGUs, including Quezon City reported less than 50 cases. QC had 47, followed by Pasig with 29. The rest of the cities reported less the 20 cases, with 8 LGUs having single digit. The latter were: Las Piñas 5, Malabon 4, Mandaluyong 5, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 8, Navotas 2, San Juan 3, and Pateros 3.

The Health Agency reports 1038 new cases based on 5% positivity rate from 25313 tests done on February 25, a holiday. With a couple of hundred more recoveries than new cases, the active cases drop to less than 53K. Around 91.5% of the positive cases were asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the 1036 cases today, 1015 or 98% are ‘fresh’ or occurred in the last two weeks. NCR, Western Visayas and CALABARZON led the regions.

There are 51 additional deaths today. Of the deaths reported today, only 22% occurred in January and February. A whopping 78% were backlogs occurring all the way back from January to December 2021.

There were 9 duplicates removed from the total. Three were recoveries and one was a death.

There were 44 cases previously tagged as recoveries but on final validation were actually deaths.

NCR accounted for 23% of the total share with 230 cases today. This was led by City of Manila with 47 cases and Quezon City with 44. All other LGUs in Mega Manila had 0-20 cases. Those reporting single digit were: Malabon 6, Mandaluyong 8, Marikina 2, Muntinlupa 3, Navotas 1, San Juan 5, Valenzuela 8, and Pateros had ZERO covid.

There were 8 ROFs positive for COVID 19 today.

On a regional level, only three regions were left reporting triple digits. Aside from NCR, the other two were: CALABARZON 108 and Western Visayas 129. BARMM was the only region with single digit – reporting 5 cases.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

As the cases continue to decline globally, many Asian nations are taking a whipping from the omicron wave. The Philippines, which began its omicron surge almost immediately after the delta wave is now seeing lower cases, especially in the more highly urbanized cities of the archipelago, where the government has pushed for vaccination in those eligible and rolled out the 5-11 years old sooner than other Asian nations.

One of the more important strategies at curbing the pandemic quicker was the sacrifice of the economic sector. Other Asian nations have a more difficult time in implementing this as part of their pandemic strategy as economic considerations take a front seat over health concerns.

The steep needle-rise in cases in the end of December was quick and by the end of January 2022, the cases also significantly dropped. The 7-day average is now around 1400 new daily cases and continues to take a downward trajectory as positivity rate drops to 5.3% in the country.

It’s the deaths, however, that is unsettling. With backlogs on deaths coming in this past week, the 7-day average deaths is up at 117 new daily deaths. A range of 30-50% are from deaths between July to December 2021.

Compared to the other Asian nations, the effective reproduction rate in the Philippines is at 0.47 (+/- 0.05), which means that we will continue to see lower cases in the upcoming weeks (and hopefully sustain that). The worst hit are South Korea and Vietnam, which will continue to see increasing cases. South Korea had its worst days in the last two days, as for the first time, was number one in the world for most cases in a single day. The omicron wave that hit Japan in the middle of January is also beginning to subside as its Rt drops below 1.0.

While South Korea saw the largest number of cases this week, with an unsurpassed trajectory, it was still Singapore that led in the total number of cases per capita (based on per million population) with 3360 new cases per million population vs South Korea’s 2710 new cases per million people.

The weekend Saturday has fewer cases with the Health Agency announcing 1223 new cases based on close to 27K tests with a positivity of 5.3% on February 24. As more recoveries were recorded today, the active cases drop to less than 54K. Of the new cases reported today, 96% of them are recent (last two weeks), with NCR, Region 6 and CALABARZON the top three contributors.

There are 128 new deaths added. Of these, only 20% (25) occurred this February, while only 22% (28) last January 2022. This means that 58% of the deaths happened lat year from September to December with 33 deaths in September and 35 in October being added to the deaths reported today.

There were 95 duplicates removed from the total case count – 80 of whom were recoveries while 1 a death.

There were 113 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact deaths.

NCR accounted for a high 23.3% of today’s total cases with 285. Only three other regions reported triple digits – Western Visayas 162, CALABARZON 155, and Central Visayas 142. All other regions reported double digits, except for BARMM which had only 7 cases.

There were 6 ROFs who were added to the positive COVID19 cases for the day.

In the NCR, only the City of Manila had more than 50 cases – at 54. Quezon City came in second with 43 and Parañaque in third with 32. All other LGUs had less than 30 cases. Seven LGUs had only single digit. They were: Malabon 2, Mandaluyong 9, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 6, Navotas 4, San Juan 6, and Valenzuela 4. Pateros was the lone LGU that had ZERO covid.

The People Power holiday has some good news as the Health Agency announces 5.6% positivity (while still at moderate risk, is just a fraction short of the acceptable/ideal positivity rate) from 28039 tests done last February 23.

With more cases than recoveries, the active cases remain at a little more than 55K, still with around 92% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the cases reported today, only 1200 actually are recent (last two week), with NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon leading the regions.

There are 59 deaths added. More than half (30) occurred in February while 11 last January 2022. The remaining 30% were backlogs from July to December 2021.

There were 121 duplicates removed from the total case count. Of these, 115 are recoveries.

There were 41 cases tagged as recoveries but in actuality were mortalities and reclassified as deaths.

With a national positivity rate at 6.3% of 28,246 cases last February 22, the Health Agency reports 1745 new cases today. Which is not surprising considering that the positivity rate remains at moderate risk, with individual regions and provinces having a dire lack in testing.

The active cases are a little more than 55K, with close to 92% being mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing.

Of the 1745 cases reported today, 1250 are fresh while more than 500 are backlogs that needed to get reported. NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon led the pack.

It’s the deaths that’s really startling as there are 188 new deaths added today. Half or 94 of these occurred in February while 36 occurred in January 2022. This means that 31% of today’s reported deaths happened last year with 44 deaths from September 2021 alone.

There were 112 duplicates removed from the total cases, of which 104 were recoveries.

There were 126 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in actuality deaths and reclassified as such. Bringing the total deaths past the 56,000 mark.

NCR accounted for 17.9% of todays cases with 313 reported. This was followed by Western Visayas 215, CALABARZON 210, Central Visayas 187, Davao Region 149 and Central Luzon 142. All other regions reported less than 100 cases. There were 16 ROFs (returning overseas Filipinos) who tested positive.

In Mega Manila, Quezon City led the haul with 65 cases (they also led among all LGUs in the country), followed by the City of Manila with 46, Pasig with 34, Makati with 26 and Pasay City with 21. All other LGUs in NCR had less than 20 cases with six LGUs continuing to report single digit. The latter were: Malabon 6, Muntinlupa 7, Navotas 5, San Juan 7, Valenzuela 8, and Pateros 2.

Outside of NCR, top three HUCs (highly urbanized cities) with most cases were: Davao City 60, Iloilo City 59 and Cebu City 58.

The Health Agency continued to report the expected range of cases for a Wednesday.

With a 6.1% positivity from over 24K tests done last February 21, 1,534 new cases were added to the total COVID-19 cases in the PH. With a little more than 55K active cases, almost 92% were mild or asymptomatic at the time of testing. Note that of the 1534 cases today, only 1057 (69%) are fresh or recent (within the lat two weeks), with NCR, Central Luzon and CALABARZON as the major regions contributing to the cases.

It’s the deaths that’s really disturbing as 201 are added today. Of these, 34% occurred this February, while 59% of 118 were deaths in January 2022. The rest were from September to December 2021.

There were 109 duplicates removed from the total case count, where 99 were recoveries.

There were 187 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in actuality mortalities after final validation.

NCR continued to account for a little over 20% of the cases today with 315 cases. All other regions with triple digits reported less than 200 cases – CALABARZON 179, Western Visayas 161, Central Luzon 147, Central Visayas 112, and Davao Region 103. There were 19 ROFs positive for COVID19.

In the NCR, only Quezon City with 55 cases and the City of Manila with 53 cases. All other LGUs in NCR reported less than 50 cases with six LGUs reporting single digit – Las Piñas 5, Malabon 7, Muntinlupa 8, Navotas 4, San Juan 4 and Pateros 2. No LGU in Mega Manila had zero COVID today.

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Based on OCTA Research data (from Prof. Guido David), and despite the absence of the daily data drop the Department of Health, the current condition of the major highly urbanized cities in the Philippines show improving conditions in terms of risk levels. Majority of them are now low risk, including NCR, while a few remain in moderate risk.

Those in moderate risk are: Baguio City, Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, General Santos, Iligan, Iloilo City, Naga City, Puerto Princesa and Zamboanga City.

Those at very low risk (and a round of applause for them) are: Angeles City (Pampanga) and Lucena City (Quezon Province).

Notice, however, the inconsistencies in the positivity rates of each of these HUCs. While the over-all risk category may look good, one needs to consider whether the area even tests or not. Places like General Santos, Iligan, Naga, and Puerto Princesa have a very high positivity and would be difficult to make heads or tails on whether its low cases are attributed to an actual drop in cases or just the pure absence of testing. As we all know, if you don’t test, you don’t report.

Close but not close to triple digits as the Health Agency announces 1019 new cases based on 18177 tests with a positivity of 6.4% in the country. While NCR is seeing lower positivity rates, other regions in the country are driving up the extreme side of higher rates in spite of their lower numbers. They are not testing anymore.

The active cases are a little above 56K with almost 92% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing. The good news remains that the healthcare utilization rate is at low risk in most parts of the country.

Of the 1019 cases today, 96% (982) occurred within the last two weeks. The top regions in this period were NCR, Region IVA and Region 1.

There are 13 deaths added today. Of these, 6 occurred in February while 5 in January 2022. There were 2 days in 2021 – one in October and one in September.

Note that 260 duplicates were removed from the total case count. Of these, 240 are recoveries.

The DoH adds that one case was found to have tested negative and has been removed from the total case count and is a recovery.

There were 13 cases tagged as recoveries but were actually mortalities.

NCR accounted for 20.5% of the total cases in the country with 209 cases today. Only one other region had three digits – CALABARZON with 129 cases. All other regions reported two or single digit cases. Those with single numbers were: BARMM 7, MIMAROPA 9, and Bicol 5. Even Western Visayas, Central Visayas, CAR, and Davao Region saw double digit cases today.

In NCR, none of the LGUs posted more than 50 cases. Quezon City led the pack with 41 cases today, with Manila at 29 and Makati at 26. All other LGUs had less than 20 cases. Six LGUs reported single digits: Las Piñas 9, Malabon 5, Marikina 3, Muntinlupa 7, San Juan 3, and Valenzuela 4. Two LGUs had ZERO COVID cases – Navotas and Pateros.

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Prof. Guido David provides an update on the status of NCR and the CALABARZON area for OCTA Research as shown in the infographic below.

Note the following: (1) the decline rate is slower now in Mega Manila compared to the past weeks. This means that the numbers may be plateauing at a certain level. The positivity rate is at 4.9%, which puts it now at low risk. The premise is, if the growth rate goes down to 0% at 200 cases, this means we will be stuck at that number of daily active cases.

Positivity rate remains at moderate risk in all the provinces in Region IVA except for Quezon which is at lowest risk with an ADAR of 0.51, Rt of 0.18 and a positivity of 3%.

The Health Agency continued to report fewer cases today, with 1427 new cases today from exactly 25K tests done with a 7.5% positivity last February 19. The active cases continue to drop and is now at a little more than 58K with 92.2% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing.

Of the positives today, 97% occurred within the last two weeks with NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas leading the pack.

Sadly there are 79 additional deaths today. 84% of the deaths reported today (66) occurred this month, while 8 (10%) occurred last January 2022. The remaining 6% of deaths occurred in the months of September and October 2021.

There are 104 duplicates removed from the total case count, of which 98 were recoveries.

There were 52 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in actuality mortalities.

The National Capital Region accounted for 23.3% (higher than the previous weeks) of the cases in the country – mostly attributed to testing in the LGUs – with 332 cases today. Other regions reported less than 200 cases, with the following reporting triple digits: CALABARZON 173, Western Visayas 163, Central Luzon 131, Central Visayas 128, and Davao Region 109.

There are 17 ROFs positive in today’s report.

In NCR, Quezon City led with 68 cases followed by the City of Manila with 56. Most of the LGU reported 30 or less cases with only Malabon, Navotas, San Juan and Pateros reporting single digits. None of the LGUs in NCR reported zero case.

The Health Agency reports 1712 new cases based on 28,500 tests with 8.8% positivity (up from a previous of 7.9%) on February 18. Active cases drop to a little more than 60K with 92.4% being asymptomatic or mild at the time of testing. Of the cases reported today, 94% of them occurred in the recent two weeks (I do not know why the agency keeps counting a two weeks look back since the days for isolation, quarantine and recovery have been modified already). NCR, CALABARZON and Western Visayas led in the cases.

Of the 77 deaths, 2/3 occurred in February 2022 while 26% in January. In short 92% of the deaths reported today are recent, with the remaining occurring September and October of last year.

There were 100 duplicated removed from the total case count with 95 recoveries.

There were also 70 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact deaths.

The NCR continued to account for the highest share of cases in the Philippines as it has 369 (22%) cases today. This is followed by a distant second by CALABARZON (233). Others with triple digits were: Western Visayas (184), Central Visayas (163), Central Luzon (136) and Davao Region (113).

The City of Manila led the NCR with triple digits – 100 cases. No other LGU had more than 50 cases in Mega Manila. Six LGUs recorded single digit – Malabon (7), Muntinlupa (8), Marikina (6), Navotas (1), San Juan (1), and Pateros broke its ZERO COVID streak with 2 cases today.

Cases in LGUs in the province started to dwindle as well with no LGU reporting more than 50 cases.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Prof. Guido David has provided the latest infographic on the situation in the top Highly Urbanized Cities (HUCs) in the Philippines as of February 19, 2022.

The good news is that there is a continued decline in growth rate, but the National Capital Region (or Mega Manila) has slowed down in its decline. The ADAR and positivity rate in the NCR is at moderate risk (but has dropped from 8 to 6% this week). The city of Lucena in Quezon Province has the lowest overall risk, with an ADAR <1.0, Rt of 0.13, HCUR of 15% and positivity of 3%.

While the overall Rt is now very low (<0.5), the positivity rate is troubling because this may imply that the lowering numbers are ‘artificial’ due to non-testing. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that if you don’t test, then you won’t have cases. Notice that there are cities that have positivity at moderate risk and it’s mind boggling that there are still cities that have staggeringly high positivity rates including General Santos, Iligan, Naga, Ormoc and Puerto Princesa. These areas are not targeting the people that need to get tested or are not testing enough. While their numbers may be low, it’s because they are not testing and not testing means, there is not reporting as well.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines continues its declining cases, moving down to 20th or lower rank in Asian and 60th or lower rank in the world, as the omicron wave hits the global community.

The decline, however, was not a dramatic as two weeks ago as the positivity rate remains in moderate risk (and as pointed out above may be artificially driven because of under testing. The phenomenon of under testing and less surveillance is noted GLOBALLY and not limited to the country alone.)

The death rates are erratic as the DoH struggles with backlogs from the past year. Death will always be a lagging indicator, in the same way hospitalization is.

In Asia, South Korea overtakes Japan to take the lead with past 100K cases yesterday. Notice that the infographic below shows the number of new cases based on a 7-day rolling average. Most Asian countries are seeing record highs, especially those that have never experienced surges from variants of concern in the past. This includes the tiny country of Singapore and the semi-autonomous nation Hong Kong.

On a per capital (based on cases per 1 million population), Singapore by far takes the lead with 2670 cases per million population, while the Philippines has the least with 23 per million people. There are actually more cases figuratively and mathematically in Hong Kong than the Philippines.

There should be some respite from the Omicron surge in all these Asian neighbors soon. The effective reproduction rate for countries like Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines has significantly stabilized. Meaning, the current cases in Japan, for example, will most likely continue a slow downward trajectory the next week and continue this decline in the next 3 weeks. Indonesia saw rapid decline after 2 weeks of increase with Rt now at 0.86. The Philippines has the lowest Rt at 0.49, meaning this will provide more room for continued decrease in cases being reported in the last week of February 2022, in spite of the moderate risk positivity rate (which is also slowly decreasing in general).

It’s a weekend, and there’s good news and bad news.

The good news is that the positivity rate continued to drop and based on close to 28K tests done last February 17, the positivity rate is at 7.9%, bringing todays cases to 1923 new cases. And with more than 5000 recoveries, the active cases continue to decrease with 92.7% being asymptomatic or mild.

Of the 1923 cases today, 95% occurred in the last two weeks with NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon topping the regions.

Of the 198 deaths, only 25% occurred this February. The bulk of 70% (138) were from the month of January 2022. The remaining 5% were backlogs all the way from March – December 2021.

There were 100 duplicates removed from the total case count and 94 of these were recoveries.

There were also 176 cases previously tagged as recoveries but were in fact mortalities after final validation.

NCR continued to lead among cases with 392 (>20%) for the day. The other regions with triple digits were CALABARZON (231), Central Luzon (195), Davao Region (187), Central Visayas (183), and Western Visayas (169). All other regions had double digit cases including ROFs that registered 21 positives today.

In the NCR, the City of Manila led with 74 cases followed by Quezon City with 67. Seven LGUs had less than 50 but more than 10 cases. Seven LGUs report single digits – Malabon 7, Mandaluyong 9, Marikina 4, Muntinlupa 6, Navotas 2, San Juan 7, and Valenzuela 4. Pateros continued its ZERO COVID streak.

LGU outside of NCR with