The continuing improvement in the country’s battle with COVID19 and the data for 10.31.2021

The Health Agency reported 3,410 new cases on the last day of October for 2021.

With close to 6,000 recoveries, the active cases hover at 45,000.

There were 46,450 tests done last October 29 with a 7.2% positivity rate.

Even the healthcare utilization particularly ICU rates are lower both nationally (46%) and in the NCR (39%).

There were 128 additional deaths reported today.

NCR reported 370 or owned 16.7% of the total cases of the country today. While CALABARZON is back in second, Cagayan Valley and CAR still contributed significantly to the cases today.

On a provincial level, Isabela and Benguet were on top of the list.

Quezon City accounted for 26% of the cases in NCR. That means that one LGU alone accounted for more than 1/4 of the cases in Mega Manila. With lower cases today, 11 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty list. Which meant that the bar for number of cases to be in the top 20 has to be lower – now at 24 – as the ceiling. As the cases begin to wind down, the contribution of each LGU matters – and the objective is to drive down the numbers to single digit!

Striking is that among the top 10 LGUs with most cases, six LGUs outside of NCR are in the list, They include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Lubang, Bacolod City, Davao City and Cebu City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It’s been a continuously good week for the Philippines as the numbers dip down further to a 7-day average of around 4500 cases/day. At the current R, this should go further down as the first week of November. As we see no new variant of concern in the offing, the projected 2 week 7-day average should be around 3,000-4,000 cases/day.

Testing has slowed down significantly as well, but the over-all positivity rate has considerably dropped to < 10% in the last 2 weeks, with NCR reporting only 5% positivity rate and Cebu City reporting 2% positivity.

A quick look at our ASEAN neighbors show that as of October 28, Thailand continued to lead among ASEAN nations in the 7-day average of cases per day. Indonesia and Japan continue its triple digit numbers with Japan reporting less than 300 daily cases. This is, however, not corrected based on population size.

Factoring population size of the same select Asian countries in the above graph, in order to get the cases and deaths for COVID19 per capita, Singapore leads in the number of cases per million population, while Malaysia leads in the number of deaths per million population.

The reproduction rate for the same select countries shows both Singapore and South Korea with a R >1.0, while the other countries are seeing a continuing lower R. The most improved country this week was the Philippines, with a national R at 0.71 (+/- 0.05).

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