As the day drew to a close for the week, the Health Agency reports 5,823 new cases today.
There were 58,273 tests done on October 20 with a positivity rate of 11.6%.
It announced 283 new deaths today.
ICU utilization rate in NCR is now below 50% with hospitalization rates averaging 40%.
OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT
To show how much improved the situation is in the National Capital Region (Mega Manila), today’s monitoring report shows the significant decline in the 7-day average for COVID-19 cases. The positivity rate of the national capital is down at 8% versus the national average of 10-12%. Utilizing the indicators of incidence rate, Rt (infection), Health care and ICU utilization rate, there has been a 43% decline of cases since the past week. ADAR is also down to moderate at 7.40/100,000 population, while the R is at a low of 0.46 (below 0.5). We will need to sustain this reproduction number and keep it below 0.5 for the whole of October to the end of November in order to see an unprecedented low of cases in the capital. Only Caloocan, City of Manila, and Mandaluyong have Rt > 0.5 for now, but this should be manageable in the next few weeks. It is also important that ALL the LGUs do not digress from the current trend. If one LGU digresses from the current declining cases, this will affect all the other LGUs in the next few weeks. ICU utilization is highest in Muntinlupa and Makati, while moderate in Quezon City.
The NCR saw a four digit record today with 1,031 new cases, but this was expected because the region accounts for around 17-22% of the total daily cases. Except for Eastern Visayas and BARMM, all other regions continued to report triple digits, with Cagayan Valley still reporting a high of 849 cases.
On a provincial level, three provinces in Cagayan Valley are among the top ten provinces with most cases for the day. They are: Nueva Vizcaya, Isabela and Cagayan. Another province in North Luzon joined the top ten – La Union.
Among cities and municipalities, 8 of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty most cases for today. It was Quezon City and Parañaque City that led the haul. However, it is disturbing that many municipalities were in the top twenty list, mostly from Northern Luzon. Places like Solano, San Manuel, Tadian, Flora, and Bagabag should be monitored closely.