Numbers that matter: COVID-19

Data as of June 30, 2020, 8PM Manila Time.

THE WORLD

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

After the breaking the 10 millionth case in the world last weekend, and over 150,000 cases being reported daily, it will not be surprising that we will have a million cases weekly.

There were less than 160,000 more cases added. And deaths are slightly up with 3676 deaths globally.

The global case fatality rate is now at 4.88% (lower than yesterday’s 4.92%) with a recovery rate of 54.5%.

Almost 6.2 million are closed cases with 92% recoveries and 8% deaths. While the fatality may seem low in terms of percentage, the numbers are staggering because of the sheer number of cases. While some countries are beginning to see a decline in cases, others are just beginning to see cases in their own communities.

The half of 2020 closes with a high note – the continued upward trajectory of new reported cases. The report on lesser death rates is something that we should be cautious in interpreting as death reports are usually latent.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html#cases

The United States continued to surge with the highest number of cases in the world overnight (+44,734) bringing their total count to past 2.68M.

The top three states that contributed to the cases overnight were: California (+6,896), Texas (+6,135) and Florida (+5,266). The death rate in the US is lower today at 4.80%, lower than the global average fatality rate.

Top 10 countries with most cases yesterday were: USA (+44,734), Brazil (+25,234), India (+18,339), Russia (+6,719), South Africa (+6,130), Mexico (+4.050), Chile (+4,017), Bangladesh (+4,014), Saudi Arabia (+3,943), and Pakistan (+3,557).

The table below shows the top ten countries with the highest number of cases reported. These ten countries alone contribute to 2/3 (almost 6.9 million cases) in the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The Philippines remains at 38th in the world in number of cases of coronavirus.

https://covid19stats.ph/stats/by-country/cases

Based on infection density (infection based on the population of the country), Qatar remains to have the highest infection density with 33,581 cases per million population. While Oman has displaced Singapore for the 10th spot, Panama has displaced Singapore for the 11th position.

With the Philippines averaging almost 800 cases/day in the last week, we move up from 107th to 105th spot in terms of infection density with 340 cases/million population.

For every 1 death, there are 11.2 recoveries.

The Philippines

The last day of the month of June. The last day for half the year. The last day of the second quarter.

And it ends with a bang!

Today we have the second highest total new confirmed cases since the start of this pandemic in the country with 1,080 cases today. Of course, the Department of Health will provide the disclaimer that they will need to verify these numbers, particularly the “others”.

Of the cases reported at the 4 o’clock habit, Region VII reported 468 total confirmed cases (430 fresh and 38 late), followed by the “others” with 409 cases (270 fresh and 139 late) The NCR had 203 cases (158 fresh and 45 late).

Of the 11 reported deaths, 9 of them died in June. The death rate continues its downward trend at 3.37% while the recovery rate is at 27.28% (lower than yesterday’s recovery rate of 27.32% because there are significantly more cases than recoveries).

According to the Department of Health data, of the remaining 25,227 active cases, 99.4% of them are mild (24,137 or 95.7%) or asymptomatic (942 or 3.7%). There are four less severe cases today – either the patients recovered or passed away.

The graph on deaths by date of death had some data with proxy. Proxy in data analytics and machine learning may pose discrimination and bias in the outcome of the data. Choosing proxy variables is subjective and while the health agency does not explain what proxy variables it chose to arrive at this extrapolation, hopefully, they are weak variables.

The day before

Of yesterday’s 985 cases, the 4 o’clock summary of the DOH COVID-19 bulletin announced 531 cases supposedly came from “others”, while NCR had 319 cases and Region VII with 135.

WRONG!

Yesterday was a blood bath day for the National Capital Region. NCR did not have 319 cases. At 10 AM today, the final tally was 545 cases with 6 deaths. Region VII had 135 cases and four deaths. Region IVA is in third with 84 cases and one death. Of the 985 cases yesterday, 121 (12.3%) had no tagged location.

Other regions that reported double digits were: Regions III, IX, V, and VI. There were 14 repatriates with positive results yesterday.

Of the 545 cases from the NCR yesterday, 338 (62%) were unknown. The way data is reported in the NCR makes this exercise of reporting unknowns frustrating. The numbers reported daily out of NCR are undoubtedly the highest in the country. Yet it’s such a pain to see them unable to verify their actual locations, making this exercise of counting cases by city an exercise in futility. How do they even reconcile all those “unknown” later on (if ever)?

Based on those with tagged locations, the highest cases were: Quezon City (+51), Caloocan (+24), Manila (+20), Valenzuela (+15), Parañaque (+14), Marikina (+13), 11 cases each for Makati and Navotas; and ten cases each for Malabon and Mandaluyong.

The other cities that reported single digits were: seven cases each for Las Piñas and Pasay City, five for Taguig, four each for Pateros and Pasig, and one for Muntinlupa. Only San Juan had no reported case two days in a row.

Six deaths were reported in NCR – three from Caloocan, two from Manila and one unknown location. (Seriously, I don’t even know why there is an unknown death, when the death certificate should indicate the place of death and the residence of the person that died.)

Region VII reported 135 cases with 4 deaths yesterday. As mentioned in the previous blogs, the number of fewer new confirmed cases are most likely due to lack of testing kits in the region (and not due to the enhanced lockdown as purportedly being attributed to from some reports). This is evident in the report below on testing capacity and in the almost 400% surge in number of cases out of Region VII today.

Those with tagged locations reported yesterday were: Cebu City (+77) and three deaths, Cebu Province (+26) and one death, Lapu-Lapu City (+25), Mandaue (+5), and one apiece for Negros Oriental and an unknown.

Region IVA had the third highest number of cases with a total of 84 and one death. As in the case of the other regions, nineteen (23%) were unknown. Those with tagged locations were: Rizal (+30), Cavite (+17), Laguna (+17), and Batangas (+4). The lone death was from Laguna.

Region III had 28 cases. Twenty one came from Bulacan, two from Pampanga and one apiece from Nueva Ecija, Zambales and Tarlac. Two had no tagged residences.

There were twelve cases each from regions IX, V and VI.

The highest cases in region IX? The unknown had 8. Three cases were from Zamboanga del Norte and one case from Zamboanga del Sur.

For region V – Camarines Sur had 4 cases and two cases each for Camarines Norte, Masbate, Naga City and Sorsogon.

The twelve cases of region VI were from Iloilo (4), Negros Occidental (3), Guimaras (2) and 1 apiece from Aklan, Capiz and Iloilo City.

While all other regions reported single digit cases, CAR, MIMAROPA and region XII had no reported case.

These formed the majority of the “others” yesterday.

The results in testing capacity is unusual. While they report an additional 14,014 samples tested on June 28 in 13,182 individuals, bringing the cumulative positivity rate up at 7.1%, it was unusual to alter the data the day before.

On June 27, the initial report of the Department of Health was 13,040 samples were tested in 12,127 individuals. The daily positive rate for June 27 was also the highest at 10.14% since more testing had been performed.

Surprise of the day? The graph for tests done on June 27 changed. It now claims to have 16,289 tests done with 1481 positive (instead of 1323 positive cases) and the daily positive rate went down to 9.1%.

On June 28, total tests done was 14,014 samples in 13,182 individuals. The cumulative positive rate is now at 7.1% due to an increase in daily positive rates at 9.32%. In short, out of every 100 people tested, 9-10 will turn out positive.

However, the positive rates vary per testing facility, as they are in actuality a reflection of the locality.

For example, Region VII has three testing facilities – Cebu TB Reference Laboratory, Vicente Sotto Memorial Medical Center and Allegiant Regional.

Allegiant has not provided any reports in the past 4 days. On June 28, it submitted a report – no tests done.

Let’s examine the two facilities.

Cebu TB Reference Laboratory Gene Expert. One hundred ninety seven out of 748 individuals tested positive on June 28. This gives you a daily positive rate of 26.3% for this facility.

At VSMMC, a total of 265 out of 527 samples tested positive. For a daily positive rate of 50.3%. The highest positive tests for any testing facility in the country.

Now let’s merge both facilities to represent testing results on June 28 for Region VII. You get 462 positives out of 1275 samples or 1268 individual tested.

If you correlate that with the total number of cases out of Region VII today, the 468 cases reported are more or less from the testing results from June 28.

As of today, there are 53 licensed RT-PCR laboratories and 19 licensed Gene-Expert Labs accredited to do confirmatory testing in the Philippines, bringing the total of testing laboratories to 72.

Results vary according to the facility and below is the list of the facilities with > 10% positivity rate. Those highlighted in yellow show the highest cumulative positive rates. While 56 of 64 laboratories submitted reports on June 28, ironically, some of them just submitted reports even if NO samples were tested.

This is observed in the summary of the testing facilities that have >10% positivity rates. On June 28, 2020, Allegiant, Dr. Jose N. Rodriguez Memorial Hospital, UP Philippine Genome Center submitted reports but had zero (-) samples tested. Which means they report they submitted just said “no samples were tested” but they reported. Singapore Diagnostics did not submit any report at all. [Those in asterisk (*) submitted zero cases today].

The following testing facilities had a >10% cumulative average positivity rate. Those highlighted are the ones with increase positive rates overnight.

All data are cumulative average of positive tests

Using the same list above on facilities with >10% cumulative positive rates, highlighted in red are those with increased daily positive rates compared to their cumulative average. [Again, those in asterisk (*) did not test today and therefore had zero percent positivity rate].

CA – cumulative average; DA – daily average

We end the quarter today on a high note. More cases. Discombobulated information. Gaps in data management and integrity. Confusion in the accuracy, capacity and capability of testing centers in the country.

How will the third quarter fare?

With this kind of data being presented – optimism isn’t even a kind description to it.

It will be a miracle if we can bring the numbers down.

[Disclaimer:

All data are verified based on the Data Drop of the Department of Health. All information used in the analysis are from the health agency’s data drop site https://www.doh.gov.ph/2019-nCoV.]

3 thoughts on “Numbers that matter: COVID-19

  1. JOYCE SOLAMO June 9, 2020 / 7:33 am

    Did I get it right? The number of positive cases in the DOH statistics include ‘re-tests’ and are classified under ‘others’?

    Like

    • kidatheart June 9, 2020 / 7:34 am

      No. The number of positive cases include retests. But the “others” mean, other regions. If not NCR or Reg 7 they just say others.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Homer LIM, MD June 19, 2020 / 8:48 pm

    Bravo!!!!!

    Like

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