The data drop: 3.17.21

The Health Agency’s website today shows the steep incline in cases for the week March 4-10, 2021. This, in spite of the fact that the data is based on Date of Onset of Illness. Definitely, this storm is far from over and as the vaccine program of the government is being rolled out to the frontliners, the government needs to seriously consider placing containment policies on mobility in the next few weeks in order to avert this surge.

  • Testing showed the proportional increase in daily positive rate with the increase in cases. Not testing enough and not doing enough contact tracing as more patients are being seen much later on when the clinical symptoms are already present.
  • The Health Agency reports 4,387 new cases today. A bit lower than yesterday but expected for a Tuesday and Wednesday announcement.
  • Encircled below are the important numbers and parameters.
    • Number of active cases will exceed 10 percent tomorrow. It is now at 9.7 percent with more than 61,000 active cases.
    • The positivity rate for March 16 (as of 12 NN) is up at 14.1 percent, our highest since July of last year. Will we breach the 6,000 mark tomorrow? Not a far possibility.

NCR continued to account for the majority of cases with 2,471 or 56.3 percent for the day. Five other regions reported triple digits – CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Central Visayas, Cagayan Valley and CAR. Note the significant decline of cases in Central Visayas on a regional, provincial and city level. There were 28 cases with unknown residences from a regional level.

In the NCR, Quezon City continued to lead with 605 or almost 1/4 of the total cases in Mega Manila. The city of Manila, Makati, Pasay City, Caloocan, Pasig, Parañaque, Taguig, and Marikina reported triple digits today.

On a provincial level, Cebu was back on top but with significantly lower cases. Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, Isabela, Benguet, and Laguna reported triple digits.

Fifteen of 17 LGUs (88 percent) in the NCR filled the top 20 cities and municipalities with most cases. An indication that the surge is highly concentrated in Mega Manila. Top 11 cities with most cases today were all from NCR.

With the increase in positivity rate and the high number of positives as of 12NN today, we will definitely see a significant rise in cases tomorrow. This means that if 50,000 tests were done at 14% positivity rate, we may be testing the 7,000 level within the week.

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