Palm Sunday’s data drop

The Health Agency reports 9,475 new cases on Palm Sunday. While a teeny bit lower than the previous day, there is a large increase in the positivity rate now at 19.8 percent or 1 in every 5 patients who are tested will test positive. Although there were 22,000 recoveries in the recovery haul during the weekend, the total number of active cases still exceeded 100,000 (105,568 or 14.6 percent).

For the week of March 21-27, 2021 alone, the Philippines recorded 56,406 new cases.

As the NCR + bubble enters into ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) beginning tomorrow, let us hope that this will be enough to stem the unprecedented second surge we are experiencing. Because if this trend continues, we are on track for 1,000,000 total cases in the next four weeks or at worse, earlier.

Based on the data of the Department of Health COVID-19 tracker, notice in the screen capture provided below how the week of March 4-10, 11-17 and 18-24 behaved. The number of new cases for the week March 18-24 is almost 100 percent that seen on the week of March 4-10.

The reproduction rate for the country is around 1.6 with a wide 95 percent confidence interval (1.3 – 1.9). The wide interval is due to that fact that three regions – NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon account for more than 80 percent of the daily new cases in the country.

Todays numbers continue to show NCR, CALABARZON and Central Luzon dominating the haul. These 3 regions contribute to more than 81 percent of the total for the day. Other regions with triple digits were Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas, CAR, Western Visayas and Ilocos Region. There were 58 cases with no identified location on a regional level.

With 54 percent of the haul from the NCR, Quezon City finally breaks the 1,000 mark with 1,093 cases or 21.3 percent of the cases in Mega Manila. Manila has 816 or 16 percent of the total. This is followed by Pasig and Makati that have numbers greater than 400. Taguig, Caloocan, Parañaque have more than 300 but less than 400 cases. Mandaluyong and Pasay had more than 200 but less than 300. Las Piñas, Valenzuela, Navotas and Muntinlupa had more than 100 but less than 200 cases. There were 11 cases from unknown LGUs in NCR. Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Bulacan led the haul with 617 cases followed by Cavite with 574 and Rizal with 483. All provinces in the top ten report triple digits today.

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