Good Friday’s calvary 15,310 new cases for 04.02.2021

The road to Calvary is short and difficult. That’s the story on Good Friday. The total number of 6,128 cases on March 31, 2021 did not include 3,709 backlogs. In short, there should have been 9,837 cases for March 31. With the correction by the Health Agency, that deficit is carried to todays numbers – 15,310 new cases announced on April 02, 2021 (or 11,601 in actuality were it not for the backlog added). This horrific number pushes the total cases to 771,497 with almost 20 percent active cases (more than 153,000). With 20.7 percent positivity, the effect of the ECQ on the daily cases will most likely not be seen anytime soon.

The total cases in the world now breaks the 130 million mark as there are increasing cases being seen globally. Yesterday, the world recorded more than 700,000 new cases and close to 12,000 new deaths with countries like Brazil, India, Peru and European nations spiraling into another difficult and deadly surge.

The granular data for the day showed that NCR continued to lead with 7,879 (51.5 percent) of the total. This is followed by CALABARZON with close to 3000 cases and Central Luzon with 1,647. Note again that these three regions alone totaled 12,432 or 81.2 percent of the total cases for the day. These three regions reported quadruple digits. Nine other regions reported triple digits in todays blood bath. These were: Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas, CAR, Ilocos Region, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Davao Region and Northern Mindanao. There were 76 cases with no identified location on a regional level.

In the NCR, Quezon City and the City of Manila had more than 1,000 cases each. These two cities in Mega Manila accounted for 38 percent of the total cases for NCR. Caloocan and Pasig had more than 500 but less than 600 cases. Parañaque, Makati and Mandaluyong had more than 400 but less than 500. Taguig, Valenzuela, Muntinlupa and Marikina had 300-400 cases. Pasay City, Las Piñas, and San Juan had 200-300 cases. Malabon had 130 new cases.

Fourteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities, with 1-13 in rank all coming from Mega Manila alone.

On a provincial level, three provinces had more than 800 cases – Rizal, Cavite and Bulacan. Laguna had 656 followed by Batangas and Cebu with more than 400 cases. All provinces in the top 10 had triple digits.

Batanes now has 10 cases, with 4 cases added today. Biliran and Davao Occidental were the only two provinces with NO cases reported for today.

OCTA Research Monitoring Update

The latest update from the OCTA Research Monitoring Update shows the significant decline in the reproduction number in the National Capital Region on the week of the Enhanced Community Quarantine. While the Rt is now at 1.58 (from almost 2.25 two weeks ago), the continued rise has slowed down to 19 percent. Note that this increase is considerably lower compared to the previous weekly increases of 60 percent.

The ECQ has a greater effect in reducing the reproduction number compared to the GCQ. The average number of tests per day in the NCR from March 28-31 was 25,880, a 12 percent decline in tests compared to the daily average from March 21-27. The problem is that with a high positivity rate of 23 percent in the NCR, there is a need to further scale up PCR testing to be able to keep up with the surge in new COVID-19 cases.

Philippine COVID-19 UPDATE, OCTA Monitoring Report, April 01, 2021

The hotspots in the country remain NCR plus, Isabela and Batangas.

In the list below, note the variety in positivity rate among the top 10 provinces in the country. Only Cebu has managed to bring down its positivity rate to 10 percent. Pampanga has an 18 percent positivity rate while the rest of the provinces have over 20 percent positivity rate. The highest positivity rate on a provincial level is Bulacan at 32 percent. This means that 1 in every 3 patients in that province will most likely test positive for the virus.

The average daily new cases is in the second column, while the third column shows the percentage change. Cebu saw a significantly decline in cases, Benguet had no change from the previous week and Isabela had the highest increase in cases.

The top 20 LGUs with the most cases are seen in the table below.

While Quezon City remained at the top with the highest average cases for the week, the following cities saw significant decline in cases: Pasay City, Malabon and Cebu City. The following LGUs saw significant increases (> 50 percent) in cases: Taguig, Mandaluyong, Marikina, and Navotas.

Sadly, majority of the hospitals have already filled hospital bed occupancy especially Makati where 99 percent hospital bed capacity and 90 percent ICU occupancy is reported. Notice, however, that other LGUs like Antipolo, Muntinlupa, Malabon, Imus and Cainta have ICU occupancies at 100 percent.

The daily attack rate is also highest in Mandaluyong, Makati, Marikina and Navotas.

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