One of the grimmest day came ironically on Valor Day, otherwise called the fall of Bataan in the past, as the Philippine records the highest number of deaths in a single day with 401 and 12,225 new cases. Majority of the cases come from NCR, followed by CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and CAR. While the reproduction rates are lower this week at 1.24, the total number of new daily cases are plateauing only at the higher boundaries. Which means that if I have for example 12,500 daily cases but a Rt of 1.0, I will still have 12,500 daily cases in subsequent days. And it will take time for the number of cases to significantly drop because the reproduction rate is still above 1.0.
The number of active cases are now close to 180,000 as the Philippines passes more than 840,000 total cases. The positivity rate is still above 20 percent and the hospital ICU beds and isolation beds are past the critical level.
The OCTA Research Monitoring Update report gives the public an overview on the current situation in the Philippines after 2 weeks of ECQ. The reproduction rate has decreased, but it simply means that the new cases have simply slowed down in the increase and not decreased in actual numbers.
During this period, the NCR was averaging lower tests per day (19 percent less than the average over the week before ECQ). This means that we may not be seeing the complete picture of the ongoing pandemic.
The table below shows the regions in the Philippines with the most new cases for the week April 2-8, 2021, the growth rate of cases in the week, hospital bed occupancy and ICU bed occupancy.
The regions with the highest single week growth rate are BARMM (133 percent), Ilocos (119 percent), and CAR (113 percent). Moderate growth is seen in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Bicol Region, Zamboanga Peninsula and CARAGA. The greatest impact of the surge is on the ICU bed occupancy in the NCR, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley and CAR – the top 5 regions in the country with most cases.
The top twenty cities with most cases are tabulated below and show that only Muntinlupa City in Mega Manila is seeing the highest growth rate at 68 percent, while many of the LGUs have shown a large decline in growth rate (note in blue the negative decline). ICU occupancy is already filled up to 80-100 percent in 15 of the 20 top LGUs.
In the meantime, the breakdown of the 12,225 cases for today were as follows:
- NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon accounted for 77.5 percent of the total cases today with 9,489 cases. Nine other regions reported triple digits.
- Quezon City led with 1,127 new cases followed by Manila with 745 cases and Caloocan with 578. 16 of 17 LGUs had all triple digits. Fifteen of 17 LGUs were in the top 20 cities with the most cases. Muntinlupa Cities, while reporting only 160 cases had the highest growth of cases among all LGUs in the NCR.
- Cavite for the first time saw quadruple digits with 1,005 new cases followed by Bulacan (632) and Rizal (541).
- All top ten provinces reported triple digits.