Close to 8,000 again on 05.05.2021

A shave from 8,000 the Health Agency reports 7,733 new cases today, bringing the total cases close to 1.09 million. We will most likely cap the weekend with 1.1 million total cases.

Of course, one would always say that we can see the data today as a cup half full, instead of a cup half empty. So let’s look at that half full cup. The positivity rate for May 5 is at 14.1 % based on over 50,000 test run.

As of today, the Philippines has had more than 1 million recoveries from the more than 1.087 million total cases. The cup half empty is that with 108 new deaths, we have now passed the 18,000 deaths mark as well. The case fatality ratio based on outcomes (there were fewer recoveries than cases today) is slightly up at 1.77 percent. And while the Department of Health reports improvement in ICU capacity, which is down to 69% filled up in Mega Manila, this does not seem to translate to the actual occupancies in various hospitals in the National Capital Region.

Of the 7,733 cases reported today, 2,296 were from NCR or less than 30% of the total cases in the country today. A dramatic decline from what used to be the NCR accounting for almost half the cases in the Philippines. Based on the OCTA Research Philippine COVID-19, May 7, 2021 report, the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Mega Manila from April 30-May 6 is at 2,454, a drop of 56% compared to the peak surge. “The one week growth rate in the NCR was -25% from the previous week. The reproduction number in the NCR decreased to 0.70. The reproduction number in the entire country was 0.86.”

“The positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 16% based on an average of 22,941 tests daily. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR for COVID-19 decreased to 52%. The main concern is the continued increased in COVID-19 ICU beds occupied, currently more than 850. ICU bed occupancy rate for COVID-19 in the NCR, remained stable at 71% as the DoH helped scale up ICU bed capacity in the NCR.”

The granular data is provided early today showing the NCR owning less than 30% of the total cases in the country followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The NCR plus bubble account for 63% of the cases in the nation. For the first time, 13 additional regions report triple digits.

Twelve of the 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with most cases in the country. Quezon City continued to lead among cities in the Philippines with 453 new cases today.

The province of Cavite, Isabela and Bulacan were the top three contributors to today’s numbers.

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