Cases are increasing outside of NCR, with 05.19.2021 reporting 4,700 new cases

The good news is that the reproduction number in the NCR is down at an all time low of 0.54. With 4,700 new cases reported today by the Health Agency, the lower numbers (while it is a Wednesday) actually show a declining trend as vaccines continue to roll out (hopefully at a faster pace). The data reported data are based on 13.8% positivity from the reports last May 17. With close to 7,000 new recoveries, the active cases are lower at 4.3% (less than 50,000 cases).

New deaths reported are 136 for the day, with the case fatality ratio steady at 1.76%.

NCR continued to report less that 1,000 cases (but will most likely breach that again tomorrow as the real numbers come in). CALABARZON trails it closely with 912 cases. Twelve other regions report triple digits.

In NCR, it is Quezon City that continued to lead both nationally and on a city level with 222 new cases. Eight of 17 LGUS in NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases.

On a provincial level, three provinces in CALABARZON continue to hog the top provinces with most cases – Cavite, Laguna and Batangas.

The latest OCTA Research update on the cities outside of NCR (yesterday we reported the good performance in the National Capital Region), show the top LGUs outside NCR with the most new cases (May 11-17). Notice that Cagayan de Oro, Davao City, and Iloilo City are seeing higher average increases. The average daily attack rate is highest in Tuguegarao at 28 per 100,000 population. Puerto Princesa, while seeing a decrease of 35%, is under reporting its actual situation as the city has a positivity rate of 87% as of May 16, 2021. Which means that 8-10 people being tested there are most likely positive. This is a problem of under (or not) testing (from whatever reason like no cartridges or the machines are not working or under maintenance) or not contact tracing enough people to get tested.

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