NCR Rt at 0.54, but are the other regions outside doing better? The update for 05.21.2021

The Health Agency reports 6,258 new cases today (up from 6,100 yesterday). However, this is considerably lower than the past week average as we probably will pivot around the 6K this weekend. With only a little over 2,500 new recoveries announced, the active cases are back to more than 55K (4.7%). Positivity rate for May 19 data is at 13%.

There were 141 new deaths today which pushes up the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.77% (from 1.76%).

ICU utilization is slightly down for the NCR compared to the utilization nationally.

Today, NCR reported a close to 1,400 cases (22%) of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON maintains its close second chase in numbers to Mega Manila. Notice, however, that for the first time, ALL regions in the PH report triple digit cases. The rise in cases outside of the NCR plus bubble is disconcerting.

In NCR, four cities continue to report triple digits, and this is led by Quezon City that has the highest number of daily cases nationally and by city. The other cities include: Manila, Pasig and Caloocan. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR make it to the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Two provinces in CALABARZON continue the haul among provinces with most cases – Cavite and Laguna – with more than 300 cases apiece.

The OCTA Research monitoring report for May 21, 2021 is reported in toto below. The good news is the lower reproduction rate for Mega Manila, which is now down to almost half at 0.54. The average cases per day from May 14-20 is around 1,300. Several LGUs in NCR have been downgraded from high to moderate risk based on ADAR (average daily attack rate). While Quezon City continued to rake in the most number of cases daily, its daily numbers have significantly declined from more than 1,200 cases to 250 plus cases per day.

Notice, however, the rise in health care utilization rate in cities outside of NCR. In particular, Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Cagayan de Oro, Dasmariñas (Cavite), Tuguegarao, San Pablo (Laguna) and General Trias (Cavite). The latter is almost 100% in HCUR.

The growth rates in other cities are also disturbing. The positivity rate in Puerto Princesa was extremely high at 87% during the last week.

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