NCR vs LGUs outside of NCR: Are the cases slowing down on 06.11.2021?

As the Health Agency announces 6,686 new cases today, the Philippines officially crosses the 1.3M mark for COVID-19 cases. The cases today are from reports last June 9, with close to 50,000 tests done. However, this was not enough to bring the positivity down as it increased to 13.3% for the day. As more active cases are reported, the number of active cases exceed 60,000 (4.7%).

With 196 new deaths, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is up at 1.82%.

NCR slipped to second spot today with less than 13% of the total cases in the country. CALABARZON is back in first place. The Visayas regions are troublesome as they continue to report rising cases with Western Visayas leading, even overtaking Central Luzon. Eastern and Central Visayas follow Region III.

Among the 17 LGUs in NCR, only Quezon City continues to report triple digits. Seven of the 17 cities in Mega Manila are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases in the country.

On a provincial level, it is Laguna that takes the lead today, followed by Iloilo, Leyte and Negros Occidental.

But it is Bacolod City that has the highest number of cases among cities in the country, overtaking erstwhile perennial leader Quezon City. Four of five LGUs outside of NCR are in the top five now. Aside from Bacolod City, the rest are – Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, and Iloilo, ranking third to fifth.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Update for June 11, 2021 separates the data from the 17 LGUs in the National Capital Region from LGUs outside of Mega Manila with most cases.

Mega Manila’s reproduction remains below 1.0 at 0.72 with an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 6.7 per 100,000 and a decline of 17% in cases for the week of June 4-10, 2021. Based on ADAR, most the LGUs in the NCR are now at moderate risk, with the lowest risk level belonging to Navotas and Marikina. Only Makati City remains at highest risk with an ADAR of 10.77 per 100,000 population.

Outside of NCR, many of the LGUs that were seeing significant increase in cases have slowed down, and most of them posing declines rather than growth. Nevertheless, the ADAR in many cities remain at high risk (>10/100,000). Dumaguete continued to see a significant increase in cases by 290% and an ADAR of 51.58. Tacloban City and Silang (Cavite) are also seeing significant increases in their cases.

The major areas of concern in terms of ICU occupancy rate are: Iloilo City, General Santos, Tugeugarao, Bacoor (Cavite), Koronadal and Silang (Cavite).

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