Close to 1.6M total cases and more than 28,000 total deaths and the data on 08.01.2021

Three straight days of more than 8,000 new daily cases.

The Health Agency reports 8,735 new cases today for more than 50,000 tests done last July 30 with an almost 15% positivity rate. With fewer recoveries, the active cases now are up at 4% (more than 63,000 cases).

The 127 new deaths reported today are enough to push the total deaths now to more than 28,000. The case fatality ratio for outcomes (recoveries and deaths) are at 1.83%.

NCR continues to lead, with CALABARZON not very far behind and both regions reporting quadruple digits. Seven regions reported more than 500 new cases today.

Cebu province remains the top province with most cases on a provincial level. However, Cavite saw a surge in numbers, followed by Ilocos Norte.

Among LGUs, it was a mixed bag. Quezon City led the LGUs in the country with 320 cases. Cebu City, Misamis Oriental, Makati and Paranaque were second to fifth in rank. Fifteen of the top 20 LGUs had triple digits.

Eight of 17 LGUs from NCR were among the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases for the day.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

Without a doubt, the cases in the National Capital Region rose significantly in the past week. LGUs that never saw case with numbers that doubled, tripled and even quadrupled from the previous lows are now literally seeing surges.

Based on the five indicators: reproduction number, ADAR, beds, ICU capacity and positivity rate, only 4 of the 17 LGUs in NCR would be classified and moderate risk. The rest are at high risk.

Pateros, Malabon, Navotas have reproduction numbers more than 2, while the other cities with critical R are: Makati, San Juan, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Marikina and Caloocan.

The ADAR (average daily attack rate) is highest in Pateros at 26 per 100,000 population. This municipality that is known to have days where zero cases are being reported are seeing increasing cases.

Bed capacity is still good in most LGUs but already at moderate risk in Pateros, Pasay, Valenzuela and Quezon City.

ICU utilization is critical in Las Piñas, while it is moderate in Makati and Muntinlupa.

Finally, positivity is critical in Valenzuela at 23%, but is at high risk in Makati, Las Piñas, Pasig, Muntinlupa, Taguig, Parañaque and Caloocan.

Overall, the NCRs Rt is now at 1.52, with positivity rate at 10%.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It was a week that started with low cases. The surprise came when there was a reversal of numbers. The low Tuesdays took us aback. July 27 had an unusually high number of cases, considering that the data was coming from around 30,000 tests alone. Undoubtedly, the cases are now climbing, especially in the National Capital Region, CALABARZON, and Central Visayas.

But the reported glitches of the week could not overshadow the fact that the number of cases are up.

Sadly, this does not reflect the real situation on the ground as we see testing still averaging 45,000 a day (note on the word AVERAGING). The high positivity rate (which has actually shot up to more than 15% on certain days) is worrisome because that would point to only one fact – not enough people are tests are done because not enough people are traced.

But the problem of rising cases is not only internal to the country. Many countries in the world are experiencing the fury of a fitter variant in the form of delta. In Asia and some ASEAN countries, the cases continue an upward trajectory with a steep slope for some nations.

Reproduction rates are up as well and Singapore has managed to bring down its reproduction number as it escalates more lockdown measures in this tiny country that has the most number of people in the world receiving a jab and where testing and contact tracing is most efficient. Except for Cambodia, all the countries below have Rt more than 1.0 as of July 28, 2021.

The delta variant continues to predominate in most countries, even among those that have more than 50% of its population fully vaccinated. As more people are now vaccinated, it is expected that the number of patients that will require hospitalization will be lower, but there will also be more people who have already been vaccinated that will require hospitalization as the proportion of number of patients who get vaccinated yet get COVID-19 infections shift.

Note that while there will be a shift in numbers to patients who receive a vaccine getting hospitalized, the over-all hospitalization rate will far be fewer. And all models suggest that those hospitalized but are vaccinated have a less severe course than the unvaccinated.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s