R0 for NCR up at 1.74, PH at 1.33 and the data on 08.07.2021

More cases today as the Health Agency reports 11,021 new cases for more than 56,000 tests done August 5. The positivity rate is one of our highest at 19.1%! And the active cases are up at more than 76,000 or close to 5% of the total proportion of cases with COVID19. And these are just those that are reported and recorded from RT-PCR tests done in the country.

Number of new deaths today is 162 – bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.83%.

On the second day of ECQ in Mega Manila, we will not expect the numbers to change until 2-4 weeks later. Hopefully, it does not last longer than expected.

The NCR is front and center in today’s numbers accounting for more than 25% of the total cases for the day. Followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon, these three regions alone comprise 53.7% of the cases for the day in the country.

Cebu province returns with the highest cases on a provincial level. Cavite and Laguna report more than 600 cases apiece and Rizal has close to 300 cases.

Among LGUs, Quezon City ran away with more than 540 cases. This city alone contributed to almost 5% of the total cases in the Philippines today. Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty, all of them having triple digits reported.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

The weekend report for the period July 31-August 6 is not good news.

The sudden ‘surge’ in the reproduction number in the National Capital Region to 1.74 is quite disturbing. But it was expected, as the Health Agency reported the presence of the delta variant in every LGU in the region.

The top 40 LGUs in terms of 7-day average for new cases are provided in the infographic below. All data are obtained from the Data Drop of the Department of Health.

In terms of percent change, those that have seen significant (critical) rise in cases from the previous week are: Santa Maria (Bulacan), Cabuyao (Laguna), Parañaque, Pasay City, Mandaluyong, Valencia (Bukidnon), and Taguig at over 100%. Others in the critical zone include: Pasig, Imus, Muntinlupa, Dasmariñas (Cavite), Bacoor (Cavite), and Kalibo (Aklan).

The incidence rate or ADAR is critical in Cebu City, Makati, Laoag, Mariveles, Tuguegarao and Kalibo.

ICU utilization is critical in Makati, Iloilo City, San Pedro, Calamba, Tuguegarao, Cabuyao and Meycauayan. However, the ICU utilization is not real-time and does not reflect the actual situation on the ground where most of the private hospitals in the capital now filled up with sadly having to refer patients to other facilities outside of their LGU.

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