The summary for 2020-2021 and the data of 09.02.2021

It was the usual Thursday. As expected, the day after low Tuesdays and Wednesdays would be a more realistic Thursday before going into the reality check weekend.

The Health Agency announces 16,621 new cases, bringing the active cases back to more than 146,000.

On August 31, 2021, more than 60,000 tests done showed a positivity of 27%. This means that there are still more cases out there, and that we will continue to see a climb of cases (even if it has slowed down).

There were 148 new deaths reported, bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.81%.

Is NCR on the rise? Of the over 16,000 cases today, NCR accounted for more than 30% of the share – the highest in this latest surge. CALABARZON and Central Luzon are second and third, as usual.

Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas – all provinces in Region IVA – are the top three provinces for the day.

Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases. This, as the Department of Health announces, that all 18 regions in the Philippines now report delta variant present in each and every region. Other cities in the top 20 include 3 in Cavite, 2 in Laguna, Davao City, and Cebu City.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

While we are still in shock and awe with the rising cases in the country, it is a bit of good news to know that the reproduction number is slightly declining. However, that does not mean that our cases are going down. Slowing down is not the same as going down. Notice that the percentage of new cases actually went up in the NCR (12% higher than the previous week).

The incidence rate for NCR is at 33.2 per 100,000 population with a positivity rate of 24% (not very far from the national positivity rate of 25%). Notice in the report provided below, that 14 of 17 LGUs have ADAR at more than 25/100,000 (critical level), with Pateros, San Juan and Makati at more than 50/100,000.

The LGU with the highest reproduction number is San Juan at 1.69 followed by Taguig (1.65). Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR had reproduction numbers more than 1.4, with Quezon City and Manila having the lowest R (despite the higher number of cases).

As additional information to the reader, is the summary of total cases per month since the pandemic began from January 2020-August 2021.

Notice that August and September 2020 were the worst months for the year 2020. The most cases in 2020 was seen in the month of August with 127,207 cases. It was also the same month that saw the most number of deaths in a month for year 2020.

Year 2021 isn’t over yet. But March saw a significant rise in cases, peaking in April and slowing down from May to July. August 2021 was a month to reckon with as the PH saw 406,744 cases or more than 3 times the cases of the August 2020. In the first 8 months of 2021 alone, we had almost 4x the total cases of the whole year 2020. Even the total number of deaths were twice that of 2020, and 2021 is not over yet.

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