As the R touches 1.0 and the data for 09.23.2021

Today was not a bad day with 17,411 cases reported by the Health Agency.

There were more than 71,000 tests done last September 21 and the positivity rate continues to slightly decline and was at 24.6% for that day.

ICU utilization, however in the NCR is up at a critical 80%.

Deaths reported was 177, placing the case fatality ratio for outcomes to 1.67%.

The NCR accounted for a little more than 25% of the total cases in the country today, with 4,505 cases. The other regions that had quadruple numbers were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, and Western Visayas. The rest of the regions saw triple digits except for BARMM that reported 77 cases.

It was good news that none of the provinces reported quadruple digits. Cavite and Rizal continued to lead among provinces with most cases, with Isabela coming in third.

Eleven of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty, with 7 of them coming in from 1st to 7th rank. Davao City, Baguio, Bacolod and Iloilo are among the other cities in the top 20 list. Quezon City had more cases than the total cases of Manila, Pasig and Caloocan combined.


The good news is that the reproduction numbers in key provinces/regions have touched 1.0 and below. The bad news is that this does not mean that the cases will flip significantly overnight. It will take time for the five digit numbers to turn to four digits. Notice that the country tipped more than 20,000 cases in the past weeks. Which means that as the reproduction number dips below one, there is a slowing down in growth of cases. Two things need to happen: it needs to stay lower than 0.7 consistently and the positivity rates need to go down quickly (testing more). Any incursions above 1.0 at anytime will set back all the gains made in the difficult lockdowns over the past months.

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