Back to 20K with 21.6% positivity on 09.26.2021

They’re not really saying why. But the reports have come in late lately.

Only two scenarios why there are 20,755 new cases reported by the Health Agency today. Either they are counting antigen swabs and/or there’s a lot of backlog being reported.

With close to 75,000 tests on September 24, the positivity rate drops to 21.9%. What we do not know is if these represent only PCR tests or do they include antigen tests as well.

This is also the third straight day where NO deaths have been reported due to system glitches. It is, after all, statistically impossible to have no deaths for the last three straight days on a day where you see five digit cases. No country in the world has even managed to be that lucky.

Tomorrow, we will break the 2.5M mark. And most likely rank in the top five countries with most cases for the day.

The NCR recorded a high 27.5% of the total cases today with more than 5,600 new cases. Other regions with 4 digits were: CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley and Western Visayas. The rest of the regions report triple digits. There were 53 unknowns on this category.

The provinces of Cavite, Rizal, Laguna and Batangas were on the top five list among provinces with most cases.

And 13 of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities in the country with most cases for the day. Baguio City and Davao City remain in the top ten as well.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

The data drop from the DoH was used in calculating for the four indicators on the situation in the National Capital Region. The indicators are ADAR (incidence rate), R (infection), Hospital Bed utilization and ICU utilization rate.

The average R for NCR is down to 0.94 (moderate risk) not including the data today. Ranked according to ADAR, five NCR LGUs are at moderate risk. They are: City of Manila, Malabon, Valenzuela and Pateros. Based on R, the cities of San Juan, Quezon City, and Marikina have R> 1.0. The cities with R<0.9 are: Pateros, Taguig, Muntinlupa, Valenzuela, Las Piñas, Manila, Malabon, Caloocan and Navotas.

The indicators used in the monitoring update do not reflect the alert level rating used by the Department of Health.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines is now seeing a declining trend in cases as seen in the infographic data below. While the deaths are also lower now, this is erratic as there has been some problem with the recording of the deaths in the national database system and should be able to reconcile this soon.

Note that based on testing data for the week before, while the testing capacity has declined, the positivity rate has considerably increased. However, this is a summary of the previous week. The positivity rate in the past days has been lower than 25%. Hopefully, this is sustained in the weeks to come.

When compared to select Asian and ASEAN countries, the Philippines remains on top with a 7-day average of 18K+ daly cases. However, all nations are seeing a decline in cases except Singapore that is seeing a significant rise based on their population size.

As a matter of fact, comparing the effective R of the same Asian countries above, it is Singapore whose R has increased, while all the other ASEAN nations are seeing R<1.0. Japan’s R is at 0.46, a feat that all the other ASEAN countries must follow in order to bring the five digit cases down to four digits. As mentioned previously, it will take at least 4 weeks of R<0.7 to bring the five digit cases to 4 digit numbers.

Vaccination is still less than 25% of the total population (whether as a single dose or complete dose) in the Philippines, and here is where we stand compared to other countries in the world.

In many of these countries, the predominant variant of concern that is circulating is the delta variant. This VOC is responsible for the many resurgences seen in various countries, particularly those who have very low vaccination rates and those with breakthrough infections.

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