Less than 7K, the week in review and the data for 10.17.2021

Today saw a little less than 7K cases with the Health Agency announcing 6,913 new cases.

There were 53,669 tests for a 12.5% positivity for October 15, 2021. This is the lowest positivity we have had since the week of July 18, where the 7-day positivity rate was 12.1%.

The HCUR is even lower now as ICU utilization rate is reportedly at 59% in the NCR and 62% nationally.

The DoH reports 95 new deaths today.

NCR is doing well, with Rt at 0.59 (+/- 0.05). And the cases today accounted for lower than the 17.5-22.5% range of the total. Today, it was at 16.8% with 1,159 cases. Notice, however, that the cases are still up Northern Luzon (CAR, CagayanValley and Ilocos Region). In short, more than 83% of the cases today are outside of the NCR.

It was Negros Oriental that topped the provincial list today with 376 cases, followed by Isabela, Benguet, Negros Occidental and Pangasinan.

Nine of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities, led by erstwhile leader Quezon City. Five cities outside of NCR were in the top ten, led by Baguio City. Others in the top ten were: Zamboanga City, Bacolod City, San Fernando (La Union), and Davao City.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

It was a good week for the Philippines. Not the best as we could do better. But not a bad one either, as the country saw 4 digits the whole week, with the last 4 days seeing 7,000 plus cases. The 7-day average last week was around 8,900/day. The very slow dip in the reproduction number is responsible for the gradual decline. However, other individual regions or provinces or cities/municipalities are seeing a faster decline in cases than the rest. The death reports have been very erratic due to the glitches in the COVIDKaya system of the DICT and Health Agency.

While we are seeing a dip in cases, the average tests done in the country have significantly declined as well. From previous highs of 70,000 daily tests (which was still considerably low due), the positivity rate had decreased significantly and plateaued at a 7 day average of 19%.

Total new daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in select Asian countries have noticeably declined, except for Singapore which is still seeing an average of more than 3,000 daily cases. Thailand remains in the five digit category, but has seen its reproduction number dip to < 1.0 and should be touching 4 digit numbers the coming weeks.

Only Singapore still has a reproduction number > 1.0 but is seeing a plateau in the number of cases at the 3000 plus mark. All the other select Asian nations are seeing Rt <1.0, with Japan doing the best job of sustaining a Rt of < 0.5 for the past month. This is why the five digit cases of Japan are now in the 3 digits. If the Philippines can sustain a Rt < 0.5 for 1 whole month, our COVID-19 cases will remarkably drop. And that should be the goal, even while the economy is revving and raving to open. We MUST NOT lose focus on that goal.

Will we breach the 5,000/day 7-day average before the end of the month? That should be the goal for next week.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s