Trending <4K, the risk levels for NCR+8 and the data for 10.20.2021

It was excellent news today as the Health Agency reported lower cases since July 13, 2021 when there were 3,595 cases for the day. It’s actually one of the lowest numbers we’ve had since the March/April surge and the July/August surge. The lowest cases for the March/April surge was seen on May 23 with 3,004 cases. The following day, we never looked back at cases lower than this number. Again.

Today, the Department of Health reports 3,656 new cases with 42,296 tests done last October 18 for a positivity rate of 11.6%. Today’s report have some backlogs which will come in, in the subsequent days.

But we will take this as good news. Notice how even the ICU utilization is less than 60% nationally.

Only 5 deaths were reported today.

The current risk levels used by OCTA Research integrates four parameters: Incidence rate (ADAR), Reproduction number (Rt), Health care and ICU utilization rates, and Positivity for tests. As indicated in the previous blogs, these have been graded based on international standards for critical, high, moderate and low risk values.

The risk levels in NCR plus eight (Cebu City, Davao City, Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga and Rizal) are shown in the table below. Incidence rate is < 10 in all these areas, which puts them all at low risk. Reproduction number is also down to 0.52 in NCR, and is highest in Rizal (among the 9 high risk areas) at 0.55. ICU utilization rate is still >60% for Davao City, Batangas and Rizal, while the positivity rate is < 10% for Cebu City, Cavite and NCR.

NCR accounted for a higher share (17.5%) of today’s total COVID-19 count (compared to previous days <17%). The shift in ranks saw Central Luzon in second, while CALABARZON moves down to fourth. Cagayan Valley, Zamboanga Peninsula and CAR, while seeing relatively lower cases still cornered higher proportions of the total cases in the country today.

Zamboanga del Sur continued to top the provinces, with Cagayan, Isabela and Benguet in 2nd – 4th ranks.

For the third straight day, Zamboanga City earned the distinction to have been the only city that has overtaken Quezon City for consecutive days. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were in the top twenty cities/municipalities with most cases.

Baguio City, Bacolod City, Davao City, and Tuguegarao were the other LGUs that were in the top 10 list.

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