PH & NCR doing better and the data for 11.04.2021

It was obviously going to be higher today, as more tests were done on November 2. The positivity rate was at 6.6%, which is still quite a decent number considering that testing has been lower particularly in areas outside of NCR plus eight (see the data below).

The Health Agency announces 1,766 new cases today and with more recoveries than cases, the number of active cases in the country are a little more than 37K.

An additional 239 deaths are reported today.

We should hit the 2.8M mark on or before Sunday.

The NCR accounted for almost 20% of the total cases today, with other regions seeing lower numbers. Cagayan Valley remained in second but dropping proportionally to the over-all cases in the country.

It was a hodgepodge of distribution for the various provinces in the country, with Cagayan, Isabela and Benguet in the top five.

Among cities/municipalities, Quezon City took back the lead with 77 cases or 22% of the total cases for the National Capital Region. Ten of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases. However, due to the lower number of cases, it is a give that more LGUs in NCR would make it to the list as the fewest cases in the top 20 is now at 18.

Among the top 10 LGUs, however, only 2 were from NCR. The rest were from cities/municipalities outside of Mega Manila. The include: Zamboanga City, Baguio City, Santa Ana (Cagayan), Bacolod City, Pudtol (Apayao), Antipolo (Rizal), Lubang (Mindoro Occidental), and Davao City.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING REPORT

Three and a half months into the latest surge and this is where we stand in the National Capital Region. Our reproduction number is at < 0.5 (something we have never achieved at any time in the pandemic except now), active cases down to 7,422 (for a population of almost 14M occupying 660 square kilometers of land), and a positivity rate at 4%. While there are still quite a number of ICU beds occupied, severely ill patients take quite awhile to recuperate, but this should free up soon.

Hopefully we can even do better in the next 4 weeks as we run up to the Christmas holidays.

As of November 2, all the LGUs are now considered low risk, with Cebu City achieving excellent work at sustaining their very low risk category as cases there continue to decrease further and has the lowest positivity tests among the nine highest risk LGUs at 2%. Their ICU and health care utilization is also less than 20%.

[Both infographics are from Prof. Guido David, PhD, Fellow, OCTA Research]

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