Analyzing the active cases and the data for 11.29.2021

The week begins with 665 new cases, an all time low. The last time we saw cases this low as July 13, 2020 when the country recorded 653 cases. Today’s data is based on over 32,000 tests with 2.1% positivity rate (also an all time low). Active cases are slightly down to 16,289, but more than 46% are still moderate to critical. The analysis for this is in the white paper below.

There are 141 newly announced deaths.

NCR led today’s numbers with more than 25% of the total cases or 164 of the 665 cases today. It is also NCR that is real-time while the rest of the regions have delayed reports. The data today for NCR is accurate, but cannot be said with all the regions.

Zamboanga del Sur had the most cases on a provincial level, with all provinces in the top 10 having less than 50 cases.

Even if Quezon City takes back the lead among LGUs, none of the top 20 cities/municipalities had more than 50 cases. Only 6 LGUs reported double digits while the rest of the LGUs in the top 20 were all single digit cases, with 5 cases being the least number for the day.

COVID RESEARCH WHITE PAPER

This white paper most likely has been shared several times on social media (Twitter or Facebook) since yesterday. It’s an analysis of the active cases of the Health Agency as of November 27, 2021. There are a few things that the reader is advised when going through the data provided. (1) This is data from the daily Data Drop of the Department of Health. (For those knowledgeable about the Data Drop, it provides the whole excel data sheet of the cases including whether they have been resolved or not.) (2) The Health Agency will most likely need to depend on the Local Government Units for information on the outcomes of the active patients. Patients who may present initially as asymptomatic or mild can progress to more critical states or recover spontaneously. There is no way we can track that unless the patients are followed up on a day to day basis – something that is apparently not seen on the Data Drop. Remember, the classification of the condition of the active case is at the time of testing. (3) Backlogs in unresolved cases go way back to 2020. While it is understandable that more severe or critical cases (at the onset) may have longer hospital stays, it is highly unlikely that their outcomes would remain unresolved after 30-60 days.

As provided in the table below, there are over 1,200 cases in 2020 that have had no outcomes yet. We do no know if they are dead or alive. For the 2020 data, there are still 294 patients initially tagged as asymptomatic or mild who have had no resolution on outcome. For the moderate to critical, 1,124 cases remain in limbo.

The same interpretation can be made for the data in the first half of the year and from the third quarter (July to September 2021). The third quarter has the largest bulk of unresolved cases classified under moderate to critical. These remain unreconciled as of the publication of the white paper.

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