Hello Friday and the data for 01.07.2022

A lot of inquiries regarding when we will peak.

For one, God only knows as more and more people close to home are turning up positive for COVID-19. And while that is the downside, the good news is that majority of those vaccinated (especially the ones with recent boosters) are presenting mildly.

Reminder – please make sure that if you have signs and symptoms, do not go into denial. Isolate and Test. If positive, isolate immediately. Here’s a quick guide on isolation and quarantine time, depending on vaccination status, recently released by the Department of Health. These guidelines are NOT cast in stone. They change regularly depending on the situation of the pandemic and the predominant variant of concern that is circulating in the community.

Today, the Health Agency reports 21,819 new cases today based on more than 70,000 tests done (the highest number ever) with a horrific 40% positivity rate! In the NCR, positivity rate is estimated at almost 50% – where 1 in every 2 people tested will likely test positive.

This pushes now the active cases to more than 77,000 with 92% of them presenting as mild.

Bed utilization is up at close to 60% while ICU rate is at 48% in the NCR.

There are 129 additional deaths today.

The late upload of the Health Agency on the data drop shows that NCR continued to lead with most cases. Note, however, the drop in the share of cases from 72% to 62.5% for Mega Manila, but the increase in cases in region contingent to the area – CALABARZON and Central Luzon.

Quezon City and the City of Manila are frontrunners among LGUs with most cases, with 16 of the 17 LGUs in NCR making it to the top 20.

Three provinces report quadruple digits – Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.

OCTA Fellow, Guido David, plots the data of the NCR as of January 7, 2022. Notice how needle-steep the rise in cases is with what we now believe is an Omicron driven jump on cases. This is most likely also due to the unguarded moments during the last Christmas holiday. Note, however, that Delta is still a significant driving force in the community. And as NCR battles it out with the virus with an Rt of 5.69, these projections will have a larger margin of error as many of the cases go undetected.

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