NCR lowering numbers, the low Tuesday and the data for 02.08.2022

It’s expected that the numbers would be low today. But it’s almost half the numbers yesterday as the Health Agency announces 3574 new cases from 23754 tests with a positivity of 16.3% done last February 6. With more recoveries than deaths, the active cases ease to just a little more than 105K with more than 95% of them being mild or asymptomatic when tested.

Health care utilization is low risk, most particularly in the NCR compared to the general population.

There are 83 additional deaths reported today. [Of these, 53 occurred in February while 24 in January this year. The rest or 7% of the announced deaths today were from June to December 2021].

Today’s granular breakdown of data shows the NCR owning 20% of the total cases in the country with 689 cases. Remember – a lot of people are not doing RT-PCR anymore, just self-test with antigen tests at home and do not report these positive results. The estimate of the cases are between 8-10x the actual number based on the current data with 20% positivity rate. This is also the estimate if we use the positivity results of the recent bar exams.

ALL regions had a decline in the number of cases. None reported quadruple digits and only three regions reported more than 300 cases – CALABARZON 368, Western Visayas 380, and Central Visayas 367. Six regions reported double digits while the rest reported 100 to less than 300 cases today.

In the NCR, all LGUs reported lower cases today than yesterday except for Malabon that reported 16 cases today compared to yesterday’s 14. Quezon City and the City of Manila had triple digits at 140 and 123, respectively.

Outside of NCR, the LGUs with most cases were Cebu City with 120 cases and Davao City with 116 cases.

—————–

From OCTA Research (through the efforts of Prof. Guido David) is the current state of Mega Manila. As of February 6, the positivity rate has appreciably dropped below 10%. Cases are less than half the previous week average and the reproduction number continues to decline (which means that we will be able to sustain a lowering of cases in the coming week). ADAR is below 10 per 100K population and healthcare utilization rate is also at low risk.

Let’s just try to make Valentine’s Day an austere and healthy one and not risk the gains made. Omicron now dominates the genotype of SARS-CoV-2 in the country and there’s still a sprinkling of delta around. Fair reminder that celebrating a commercial occasion is not worth putting to risk your health and that of our loved ones for now.

After all, everyday should be Valentine’s Day.

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