Decline of cases in East Asia and the data for 04.17.2022

It was predicted AND expected that the Holy Week would usher in less cases as many testing centers are closed for the long holiday.

Nevertheless, the Health Agency reports 195 new cases and 5 additional deaths on Easter Sunday.

The NCR accounted for 37% of the total cases with 72 cases. This was led by four LGUs with double digits – Makati and Pasay City with 12 apiece, City of Manila 11 and Quezon City 10. While the rest of the LGUs in Mega Manila reported single digit numbers, Valenzuela, Pateros, Pasig and San Juan had zero covid.

Outside of NCR, the following provinces had double digit numbers: Cavite 14, and Rizal 10

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines continued to slow down in the decline as the reproduction number stood at 0.76 (+/- 0.05). This meant that even if the country was still seeing COVID19 cases, the numbers are at a trough. The 7-day average of the country is around 260 new daily cases (which is an under report considering that many who may have mild illnesses do not get tested anymore).

The erratic reports on death has managed to slow down the number of cases attributable to deaths due to COVID19. We will know tomorrow from the Health Agency as to how much of the reported deaths over the last week were late reports.

Except for Taiwan and China, all the East Nation nations saw a significant drop in their cases.

In terms of average daily cases, South Korea manages to stay on top, followed by Japan and Vietnam. It is odd that Japan, who saw a slight decline in covid cases a month ago, had seen increasing trends in the past two weeks.

On a per capita basis, while South Korea continued to lead with almost 3000 cases per million population, Singapore and Brunei are in second and third, respectively, while the Philippines continued to be in the bottom rung (which is good) with 2.34 cases per million people.

The data is evident in the reproduction numbers of the countries, with Taiwan leading at 1.56. This would imply that Taiwan has not yet seen its peak and is expected to be reporting more than 1000 daily cases beginning next week. Countries like the Philippines and Indonesia, which have seen declining numbers and effective reproduction rates at bay will most likely see the same averages in the coming week.

The over-all momentum looks good for the East Asian region. For now.

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