Rt of PH is at 0.98 (+/- 0.05) and the data for 05.08.2022

The Health Agency announces 152 cases and 0 deaths (for the 4th consecutive day) with NCR accounting only for 29% of the total cases today.

Only Manila had double digits at 11, and while the rest had single digits, 5 LGUs reported zero covid. They were: Valenzuela, Malabon, San Juan, Pateros and Navotas.

Outside of NCR, the provinces with double digits were: Cavite 12, and Pampanga 14 (4 province, 11 Angeles City).

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

While the PH continued to show triple digit numbers in the upper 100s, we have reached the trough already as evident from the effective reproduction rate that rose from 0.9 to 0.98 this week. This means that the next few days, the daily COVID19 cases will play around the range of 150-250. Which isn’t really a good sign because we need to keep our eyes on the Rt. Any movement above 1.0 means that we are bound to see a steady rise (or jump) in COVID19 cases anytime soon.

The 7-day average as of May 7 stood at 176 new daily cases. Or around 1.62 cases per million population. But the reproduction rate is up at 0.98 (+/- 0.05), which means that there is no significant change in the numbers from the previous days. The good news is that the Health Agency has reported zero deaths for three consecutive days, bringing the 7-day average for deaths down to 14 newly announced deaths due to COVID19/day. (Note that deaths is a lagging parameter.*)

Compared to the other East Asian nations, it is Taiwan that is now seeing the brunt of the omicron surge. Unlike China which has a zero COVID tolerance policy, the vaccination success of Taiwan has limited their deaths and overwhelming health facilities in spite of the surge.

In terms of per capita (cases per million population), Taiwan now take the lead from South Korea with more than 1000 cases per million population.

We expect the cases in Taiwan to continue its upward trajectory in the next few weeks as their Rt remains very high. As a matter of fact, with the current numbers, Taiwan has now breached the 40,000 daily cases and is poised to have cases ranging from 60,000-90,000 this coming week.

Singapore is the only other country that has an Rt >1.0 and has plateaued at an average of 3000 new daily cases for the past week. The best performing country which will have the potential to see even lower cases are Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia in the coming week.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s