The Health Agency announces 1347 new cases with 36 added deaths and a positivity of 14.4%. The NCR owned 41% of the total cases for the day.

Cavite province led today’s haul with 119 cases. Other provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Bulacan 99, Rizal 75 and Laguna 56.

In NCR, Quezon City was the only triple digit LGU with 116 cases. Thirteen other LGUs had low double digits: Makati 60, Manila 58, Taguig and Caloocan 38 each, Pasig 36, Parañaque 35, Mandaluyong 32, Las Piñas 26, Valenzuela 23, Pasay City and Muntinlupa 18, Malabon 16 and Marikina 14.

The week of September 26 – October 2, 2022 saw a 10% decline in cases compared to September 19-25, 2022, with 16,017 new reported cases. This put the 7-day average to 2,288 new daily cases. There were only 4 severe/critical cases the last week with 228 added deaths.

Healthcare utilization was lower for non ICU beds at 26.2% versus 27.8% the previous week, but ICU bed utilization was up at 24.3% from 22.9% the previous week. Number of severe and critical admissions declined a bit from 790 the week previous to 753 the past week.

Today, the DoH announces 1967 new cases with 14.1% positivity (with testing at a low 11,418 individuals on October 2, 2022) and 29 added deaths. NCR owned 869 (44%) of the day’s cases.

Quezon City led the NCR with 189 cases. Fourteen other LGUs reported double digits: Manila 80, Pasig 73, Makati 66, Taguig 65, Parañaque 54, Valenzuela 52, Caloocan 51, Las Piñas 46, Muntinlupa 40, Marikina 38, Mandaluyong 37, Pasay City 35, Malabon 16, and San Juan 12.

Outside NCR, Cavite led the haul with 169 cases and Rizal with 112. Only three provinces had more than 50 but less than 100 cases: Bulacan 93, Laguna 86 and Davao del Sur 54.

The Health Agency announces 2117 new cases today, with 32 added deaths and 15.1% positivity. The NCR owned 908 (43%) of the cases for the day.

Cases in NCR were led by QC with 226. Fifteen other LGUs reported double digits: Manila 99, Pasig 89, Taguig 63, Parañaque 58, Makati 57, Caloocan 53, Valenzuela 43, Las Piñas 41, Mandaluyong and Marikina 36 each, Pasay City 31, Muntinlupa 28, San Juan 15, Malabon 12, and Navotas 10.

Provinces outside NCR with triple digits were: Cavite 146, Rizal 124, Laguna 104 and Bulacan 120. Only one province had more than 50 but less than 100 cases – Davao del Sur with 89 (32 coming from Davao City).

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

Global cases continued its decline as the average cases over the past week hovered around 420,000. This was slightly higher than the 300,000 average cases same time in October 2020, but lower than the 450,000 average cases in October 2021.

Global deaths continued its all time low with a 7-day average of 1100 deaths/day. Same month in 2020, the 7-day average was around 5100 daily deaths and close to 7000 daily deaths same time in October 2021.

The cases in Asia are starting to ease. Yesterday (October 01), there were 289,681 reported cases globally. Asia contributed to 43.5% of the day’s cases while Europe is posting more cases with 48.5% of the share – being driven by France, Russia, Italy, Austria and Czechia.

We all know that the world is under testing as the reports from many countries are based on PCR tests alone. The Philippines is NOT unique in the under testing capacity as antigen tests are being utilized more frequently in the diagnosis and screening of COVID-19.

Cases in most countries have begun to decline with some hovering the same average as the previous week. Based on per capita (per million population), Taiwan remains the only country with 4 digits while most of the East Asian nations report lower cases – per capita and as daily new confirmed cases.

In the region, reproduction numbers are stable with Japan and Thailand seeing a large drop in cases as Rt <0.5.

The Health Agency announces 3822 new cases with 15.2% positivity and 34 additional deaths. Positivity rate in NCR is up at 19% with 1692 cases (44% of the total) today.

NCR, Central Luzon and CALABARZON accounted for 74% of today’s cases.

The DoH actually had only 18202 individuals tested on September 30, which means that to have 3822 new cases today would be at a positivity rate past 20% for the whole country. And that won’t make sense because the positivity rate dips down a bit to 15.2%. The only way to make heads or tails with the numbers is that a large chunk of the cases reported today are delayed reports.

NCR had all 17 LGUs with double or triple digits. The triple digit haulers were led by Quezon City with 382 cases. Others in the triple digit category were: Manila 160, Pasig 157, Makati 133, Taguig 117, Parañaque 116, and Caloocan 107. Double digit numbers came from: Las Piñas 91, Marikina 77, Mandaluyong 76, Pasay City 61, Navotas 60, Valenzuela 53, Muntinlupa 37, San Juan 26, Malabon 19 and Pateros 12.

Outside NCR, triple digits came from the following provinces: Cavite 259, Rizal 242, Bulacan 181, Davao del Sur 161 (with Davao City reporting 58), Laguna 148, and Batangas 118. Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Pampanga 51, Iloilo 54, Cebu 59 and South Cotabato 83.

The Health Agency announces 2489 new cases with 15.3% positivity and 31 added deaths today. Of the total cases, 1294 were from NCR, 237 from Central Luzon and 467 from CALABARZON.

Cases are up in NCR (more than 50% of the cases today are from this tiny dense region) with Quezon City leading the haul with 330 cases followed by Manila 165, Taguig 111, and Makati 102. Double digits came from Parañaque 83, Pasig 73, Marikina and Valenzuela with 67 each, Caloocan 62, Pasay City and Mandaluyong 52 apiece, Las Piñas 39, Muntinlupa 36, Malabon 26 and Navotas 13.

Outside of NCR, the provinces of Cavite (189), Rizal (134) and Bulacan (132) reported triple digits. Two provinces had more than 50 but less than 100 cases. They were: Laguna 85 and Davao del Sur 79 (28 coming from Davao City).

The Health Agency announces 2536 new cases with 34 added deaths and 15.1% positivity rate today. NCR owned 1149 of the cases (45%). While the bulk still came from NCR + Central Luzon + CALBARZON, these three regions saw less share of the cases accounting for 72% only today or around 6-8% less than the previous days.

Quezon City hauled in 301 cases with Makati 124 and Manila 122. Double digits in NCR came from Pasig 94, Parañaque 70, Caloocan 69, Taguig 61, Pasay City 50, Las Piñas 48, Marikina 47, Valenzuela 43, Mandaluyong 39, Muntinlupa 37, Malabon 19 and San Juan 13.

Outside NCR, the following provinces had triple digits: Rizal 151, Cavite 138, Bulacan 124 and Davao del Sur 115 (with Davao City accounting for 46). Those with more than 50 but less than 100 were: Cavite 75 and Batangas 71.

The Health Agency announces 1500 new cases with 33 added deaths and a positivity rate of 14.4%. The NCR owned 671 (45%) of the day’s cases.

75% of the cases today came from three regions – NCR, Central Luzon and CALABARZON.

Only Quezon City reported triple digits all over the country with 175 cases. Those with double digits were: Manila 71, Caloocan 66, Taguig 61, Makati and Pasig 49, Parañaque 42, Las Piñas 32, Valenzuela 27, Mandaluyong 23, Pasay City 19, Marikina and Muntinlupa 16 and San Juan 11.

The provinces that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Bulacan 97, Rizal 86, Cavite 76, Laguna 74 and La Union 51.

The Health Agency announces 1555 new cases with 14% positivity and 30 added deaths. There were 738 cases from the National Capital Region.

79% of the cases today came from 3 regions – NCR, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon.

In Mega Manila, Quezon City was the lone triple digit hauler with 182 cases, even on a low Tuesday. Other LGUs with double digits were: Manila 89, Parañaque 65, Pasig 61, Makati 56, Caloocan 53, Taguig 44, Pasay City 42, Mandaluyong 37, Las Piñas 32, Marikina and Muntinlupa 20 each, Valenzuela 17, Malabon 10.

Outside of NCR, the provinces of Cavite and Bulacan had triple digits with 148 and 102, respectively. Only one province had more than 50 but less than 100 cases today. This was Rizal with 89.

The Health Agency announces 17891 cases for the week of September 19-25, 2022, pushing the 7-day average of cases to 2556/day. This was 22% higher than the 14707 cases for the week of September 12-18, 2022. There were 242 additional deaths for this week with 29 of the deaths occurring recently (September 12-25).

Healthcare utilization is lower at 27.8% for non ICU beds compared to the previous week of 28.9%, while ICU bed utilization is also down at 22.9% versus 24.1% the previous week. There were only 2 severe and critical cases added to this week.

While the Health Agency announces that 93.49% of the population is now fully vaccinated, the data is not correct considering that the denominator being used here for population eligible for immunization were those 18 years old and up when the vaccination roll out began in 2021. Since vaccination is now approved for 5 years and up, the denominator should be adjusted according to age. Adjusted vaccination accomplishment is in reality at 67%, one of the lowest in the East Asian region. Lower still are those who have gotten at least ONE booster where less than 19.5M Filipinos have even received a single booster.

Today, there were 2001 new cases added with a high 14% positivity to start the week (remember that every Monday, we reset the positivity rate). There were 29 added deaths today. NCR owned 947 cases today.

In NCR, Quezon City continued to lead with 204 cases followed by Manila with 111. Twelve LGUs reported double digits – Makati 88, Taguig 85, Pasig 66, Valenzuela 56, Pasay City 54, Parañaque and Marikina 50 each, Caloocan 41, Las Piñas 40, Mandaluyong 34, Muntinlupa 28, San Juan 15 and Malabon 13.

Outside NCR, three provinces had triple digits – Cavite 135, Rizal 123, Bulacan 102. Provinces with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Laguna 58, Pampanga 52 and Davao del Sur 50.

The Health Agency announces 3520 new cases as the Philippines continued to report increasing cases today, with 31 added deaths and 15.3% positivity. NCR positivity is almost 20%, with NCR hitting a new high of 1600 new cases.

Six LGUs in NCR reported triple digits with Quezon City leading with 378 cases. This was followed by Manila 178, Marikina and Makati 104 each, Pasig 133 and Parañaque 103. The LGUs with double digits reported high double numbers: Caloocan 96, Taguig 95, Las Piñas 82, Mandaluyong 68, Valenzuela 65, Muntinlupa 62, Pasay City 53, Malabon 30, San Juan 25 and Navotas 15.

Outside of NCR, the provinces with triple digits were: Rizal 235, Cavite 214, Bulacan 172, Davao del Sur 106, Laguna 101. Those with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Batangas 98, Tarlac 90, South Cotabato 56, and Pampanga 50.

Two provinces saw increasing cases today. They were: Palawan 33 and Maguindanao 20.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

As global cases of COVID-19 see a steady decline (including deaths), many countries in East Asia continue to see a large dip in COVID numbers as well. This includes front leader Japan and South Korea. Japan and Hong Kong will be opening its borders to tourism this October and we will see how this affects the COVID cases in the run up to the Autumn and Winter season. When this happens, China will be the last bastion in the world at maintaining their zero COVID policy. Not a very wise economic move as the United States continues to increase interest and borrowing rates, resulting in a drop in the global currency exchange. But this move in the US is meant to put pressure on their own economy as well, which should address the labor situation there, resulting in lay-offs and putting themselves into recession in order to pay for the COVID-19 economic damage.

Back in East Asia, the Philippines now has the highest reproduction number at 1.13 (+/- 0.05) as this is the only country seeing a continued rise in cases in the region. Three regions in the Philippines make up more than 75% of the daily cases – the epicenter Mega Manila (known as the National Capital Region) which accounts for more than 50% of the daily cases, and Central Luzon and CALABARZON (region IVA).

As the positivity in NCR continues to rise, the numbers are not expected to decline anytime soon. In addition, while the number of cases continue to increase, the testing by PCR is on a decline. This is the reason why the announced cases are ‘artificial’. The country also does not count antigen test results and the doctors and patients that do antigen testing are not mandated to report the test results (unlike Japan where healthcare providers must provide the government with test results – antigen or PCR).

On a per capita basis (cases per million population), it is Taiwan that leads the region with close to 1700 new daily cases per million people. Japan’s numbers together with their reproduction number have significantly dropped. Sadly, the Philippines has been seeing a rise in Rt and is unable to maintain a low Rt for 4 consecutive weeks.