The Health Agency announces 2318 new cases with 54 added deaths today. Positivity rate improved to 14.1% from a previous 14.3%. In today’s blog is the analysis of the projections from Prof. Guido David and the data from Johns Hopkins University CSSE COVID-19 data (on https://ourworldindata.org).

Two LGUs in NCR reported triple digits today – Quezon City 174 and Manila 104. Twelve of the LGUs continued to report double digits but several of them are seeing lower cases. Those with double digits were: Makati 73, Parañaque 65, Pasig 61, Taguig 58, Muntinlupa 40, Pasay City 35, Marikina 34, Mandaluyong 32, Caloocan 27, Las Piñas 26, Valenzuela 26 and San Juan 11.

Outside of NCR, triple digits were seen in the provinces of Cavite 121, Bulacan 103, and Rizal 102.

Only three provinces reported more than 50 but less than 100 cases. They were: Laguna 82, Cebu 51 and Davao del Sur 57 (with Davao City accounting for 55 of the cases). Areas with higher than usual cases today were: Benguet 30, Bukidnon 36 and Palawan 25.

Prof. Guido David provides an overview on the COVID-19 situation in the country and in the National Capital Region, the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines.

The 7-day average based on August 27, 2022 data is at 2892 daily cases, which the NCR, which owns around 30% of the national cases continues to decline in Rt and positivity. If the current situation maintains the same mathematical modeling, we expect lower cases by the end of September. Hopefully, these would translate also to more reliable numbers as many of the cases in more highly urbanized areas in Metro Manila and the country are not counted because the Philippines only includes those testing positive by RT-PCR.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The current situation in the Philippines shows that the reproduction rate is flat at 1.01 (+/- 0.05)[comparable to the data above of Prof. Guido David where the difference is around 0.1], which means that the cases are on a very slow decline. With the 7-day average positivity rate hovering at 14.3% (a significant drop from >18% 2 weeks ago), the average daily cases have also declined by 10-15% over the past week.

Japan and South Korea remain to be the only countries reporting six digit daily cases, while Taiwan continued to report five digits.

On a per capita basis (per million population), South Korea has the highest cases in East Asia at 2119/million population, eclipsing Japan (1702/million) and Taiwan (1019/million). Hong Kong and Singapore continue to report triple digits per million cases, while the rest have lower numbers including the Philippines which is now down to 27/million (from a previous 35-40/million).

Reproduction rates of all countries in the East Asian region are stable (which means that the following week will more or less provide the same statistics with a slow decline among countries with R> 0.9), while countries with R<0.8 (Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam and Brunei) will continue to see continued decline in cases as natural immunity from infection spreads across the region.

The Health Agency announces 2565 new cases today with a positivity rate that has remained stable at 14.3% for the past days. There were, however 54 additional deaths today (highest from the past few weeks). NCR owned 865 or more than 1/3 of the country’s cases for the day.

The top hauler for the day went to Quezon City that continued to report not only triple digits but more than 200 cases (232 for today). Thirteen other LGUs in NCR reported double digits: Manila 99, Makati 69, Parañaque 66, Pasig 63, Las Piñas 58, Taguig 55, Pasay City 52, Mandaluyong 34, Valenzuela 32, Muntinlupa 28, Caloocan 26, Marikina 24 and San Juan 10.

Provinces outside of NCR that reported triple digits were: Cavite 120, Rizal 104 and Davao del Sur 102 (with Davao City contributing 84 of their cases). Provinces that had more than 50 but less than 100 cases today were: Laguna 76, Bulacan 97, Pampanga 85, Iloilo 63, Cebu 86, Cagayan Province 55, and Isabela 67.

Areas that saw higher than usual cases were: Bukidnon 43, Camarines Sur 35, and Zamboanga del Sur 47.

The Health Agency reports 2986 new cases as the positivity rate plateaued at 14.3% today. However, the deaths continued to pile up with 40 added. The NCR accounted for 29.2% of the day’s cases with 872.

In NCR, Quezon City and Manila were the LGUs that reported triple digits with 184 and 125, respectively. Double digits were seen in Makati 87, Pasig 73, Taguig 70, Parañaque 47, Las Piñas 46, Muntinlupa 41, Caloocan and Pasay City 38 each, Mandaluyong and Marikina 34 each, Valenzuela 31 and San Juan 12.

Outside of NCR, four provinces reported triple digits: Cavite 173, Rizal 119, Bulacan 112 and Laguna 107. Those with more than 50 cases but less than 100 were: Batangas 58, Pampanga 76, Nueva Ecija 72, Tarlac 53, Iloilo 57, Negros Occidental 84, Cebu 83, Cagayan Province 67, Davao del Sur 99, La Union 60, Baguio City 99.

Areas that saw higher than usual numbers today were: Ilocos Norte 43, Davao del Norte 34, Benguet 36, Kalinga 21, Mountain Province 21, Bukidnon 25 and Albay 27.

Reminder to the readers that these numbers may not reflect the actual COVID-19 cases in the country as testing has declined. Death is also a lagging indicator and may not reflect the true cases of death in the country due to COVID-19.

The Health Agency announces 3126 new cases with 46 added deaths and a positivity rate of 14.3% today. The NCR owned 28.4% (887) of the day’s cases.

In NCR, only Quezon City reported triple digits at 202. Thirteen LGUs reported double digits: Manila 93, Parañaque 91, Pasig 75, Makati 73, Las Piñas 62, Taguig 59, Mandaluyong and Marikina 37 each, Pasay City 36, Caloocan 35, Muntinlupa 34, Valenzuela 25 and San Juan 14.

Outside of NCR, Laguna led the pack with 135 cases followed by Cavite 130, Davao del Sur 125, Bulacan 105 and Rizal 102.

Provinces and HUCs with more than 50 cases today were: Batangas 67, Pampanga 59, Nueva Ecija 65, Tarlac 70, Iloilo 77, Negros Occidental 66, Cebu 97, Isabela 52, Baguio City 55 and Zamboanga del Sur 56.

Cases today were 100% higher than yesterday as the Health Agency announces 3580 new cases. It was also the highest number of deaths since May 2022, where 50 deaths were announced today. Positivity rate is at 14.2% (up 0.4% from yesterday). Today’s numbers is an unusual jump from the past Wednesdays following the low Tuesday data.

Today’s cases were led by Quezon City that reported 281 cases. Three other LGUs with triple digits were: Manila 158, Makati 119, Parañaque 103. Double digits came from 11 other LGUs: Taguig 87, Pasig 76, Las Piñas 60, Pasay City 59, Mandaluyong 50, Caloocan 48, Muntinlupa 47, Marikina 42, Valenzuela 35, San Juan 16 and Malabon 14.

Outside of NCR, six Provinces reported triple digits. They were: Cavite 180, Laguna 139, Rizal 130, Davao del Sur 119, Bulacan 113 and Cebu 106.

The provinces and HUCs with more than 50 cases but less than 100 were: Iloilo 98, Batangas 93, Cagayan de Oro City 73, Negros Occidental 70, Pampanga 63, Nueva Ecija 61, Pangasinan 57, Baguio City 55, Cagayan Province 53 and Isabela 52.

We reiterate that these daily new cases are from RT-PCR results only and do not include those that test positive on rapid antigen.

The Health Agency announces 1735 new cases with 40 added deaths and a positivity rate of 13.8% today. This is one of the lowest cases we have had since mid-July when we averaged 1600++ cases. The NCR owned 528 (30%) of the cases for the day.

Only Quezon City reported triple digits with 124 cases. Twelve LGUs reported double digits: Manila 85, Makati 58, Pasay City 42, Parañaque 37, Taguig 35, Pasig 29, Las Piñas 24, Mandaluyong 22, Caloocan 16, Muntinlupa 15, Marikina 12, and Valenzuela 11.

None of the provinces or HUCs outside of NCR reported triple digits today. Those that reported more than 50 cases were: Cavite 98, Laguna 54, Rizal 62, Bulacan 73, Pampanga 57, Davao del Sur 60 and Cebu 60.

From the period August 15-21, 2022, the DoH reported 23,883 new COVID-19 cases (based on PCR results) or a 15% decline in cases compared to the week of August 8-14 where the country had 28,008 cases for that week. This means that the 7-day average as of yesterday, August 21, was at 3412 cases/day. There were 101 severe and critical cases (same as last week) but the deaths stood out at 321 added deaths for the week that was (90 or 28% of the deaths were ‘fresh’ or occurred within the last two weeks August 8-21, 2022). The deaths the past week was 40% higher than the previous week (where there were 229 deaths reported).

Healthcare utilization for non-ICU beds was at 30.2% (6677 of 22076 beds), down from 30.9% (6781 of 21968 beds) the previous week. ICU beds was also down to 27% (699 of 2586 beds) versus the previous week of 28% (719 of 2571 beds). There were 811 severe and critically ill admitted patients compared to 822 the previous week.

Note that there is a large under reporting of cases as only PCR tests are being counted. Many use antigen test kits (and do not use them correctly because they presume that when they test on day 1, and they test negative, they do not have COVID-19). Reminder to the public that there are limitations for antigen test kits. Antigen test kits are useful when they demonstrate positive results. Data shows that in the Omicron waves, positivity in antigen tests tended to be negative in the first 48 hours, especially among patients with mild symptoms.

The Health Agency announces 3077 new cases today, with 29 added deaths and the positivity rate is now reset and is at 13.9%. NCR, however, owned close to 40% of the cases today with 1168 cases.

Cases in NCR was led by four LGUs with triple digits: Quezon City 275, Manila 141, Pasig 109, and Makati 105. Double digits came from 11 other LGUs: Parañaque 87, Taguig 65, Las Piñas 60, Pasay City 59, Marikina 55, Mandaluyong 33, Valenzuela 49, Caloocan 36, Muntinlupa 34, San Juan 15 and Malabon 10.

Outside of NCR, only three provinces reported triple digits today – all from CALABARZON. They were: Cavite 177, Laguna 126 and Rizal 103.

Provinces/HUCs with more than 50 but less than 100 cases were: Cebu 94, Batangas 93, Bulacan 93, Cagayan Province 81, Iloilo 76, Isabela 64, Davao del Sur 63, Negros Occidental 57, and Nueva Vizcaya 50.

Three provinces had unusually higher numbers today: Agusan del Sur 22, Butuan City 20, and Surigao del Sur 24.

The Health Agency announces 3643 new cases with 49 deaths added today. Positivity is slightly down at 16.2% while the NCR owned 1167 (32%) of the cases for the day.

The day’s cases was led by Cavite 264 and five other provinces with triple digits: Laguna 129, Rizal 124, Bulacan 144, Cebu 122, and Baguio City 109.

Provinces with double digits and more than 50 cases were: Batangas 60, Quezon 52, Pampanga 84, Iloilo 50, Cagayan Province 54, Isabela 71, Davao del Sur 90, Benguet 50 and Zamboanga del Sur 51. The provinces of Cmarines Sur 33, Agusan del Sur 29 and Palawan 33, reported unusually higher numbers.

In NCR, five LGUs reported triple digits, led by Quezon City 251, Manila 130, Makati 123, Taguig 121, and Parañaque 114. Provinces with double digits were: Pasig 86, Las Piñas 68, Pasay City 49, Muntinlupa 45, Mandaluyong 42, Caloocan 39, Valenzuela 31, Marikina 27, Malabon 19 and San Juan 16.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

The Philippines has noted a slowing down in the number of cases this week as it has seemed to peak in numbers. Even the 7-day positivity rate is down to 16.4% (from the previous week of more than 18%). While the numbers may not be reflective of the actual numbers as only RT-PCR results are announced, the estimate in positive cases is around 10-18x the current number depending on the locality and testing capability (and availability of antigen test kits). Understandably, because of the mild presentation of Omicron sub variant, those in far flung provinces most likely do not test anymore (nor isolate for the prescribed period of time). This is one reason why this ‘mild’ wave is taking a bit longer to shake off.

The East Asian nations are seeing a slight slow down in cases,, except for Japan and South Korea. In terms of 7-day averages, Japan still have over 200,000 daily cases, while South Korea is in an upswing with close to 130,000 daily cases. Based on per capita (per million population), South Korea has the highest 7-day average at close to 2500 cases per million, while Japan is a far second with 1620 cases per million. Brunei has not provided any data in the last 2 days (as of this writing).

All East Asian nations report quadruple digits daily in the past week. However, only China is seeing a rise in the effective reproduction rate at 1.24. Japan and Indonesia are now lower at 1.06 and 1.01, while the rest of East Asian countries are at <1.0, including the Philippines which has an Rt of 0.99 (+/- 0.05). As long as the Philippines is able to sustain this for the next 4 weeks, hopefully we should see a declining trend into the “-ber” months.

The Health Agency announces 3715 new cases with 16.4% positivity rate (7-day average) and another successive day of more than 40 deaths (47 today). The NCR owned 1185 of the day’s cases.

In NCR, four LGUs reported triple digits. This was led by Quezon City with 269 cases. Others were: Manila 145, Taguig 127 and Makati 119. Double digits came from 11 other LGUs: Pasig and Parañaque with 83 each, Las Piñas 60, Pasay City 59, Mandaluyong 54, Caloocan 49, Marikina 37, Muntinlupa 35, Valenzuela 28, San Juan 20, Malabon 11.

Provinces and HUCs outside of NCR with triple digits today were: Cavite 222, Laguna 188, Rizal 121, Bulacan 155, Iloilo 112, Cebu 124, Davao del Sur 126.

Double digits with more than 50 cases outside of NCR were: Batangas 81, Pampanga 97, Negros Occidental 71, Cagayan Province 88, Isabela 53, Baguio City 76.

Provinces with an uptrend in cases (and most likely under reported) were: Apayao 28 and Benguet 43.

The Health Agency announces 3748 new cases (10 less than yesterday) and 40 added deaths (stubbornly the fourth straight day with more than 40 daily deaths) and 16.3% positivity rate (which hasn’t really moved and which may mean that we are now peaking). The NCR owned 1114 of the day’s cases (29.7%). This means that cases in the province are still rising and is more worrisome because there is less testing in the provinces and most likely a higher share of under reported cases as well.

In the NCR, 2 LGUs continued to report triple digits: Quezon City 265 and Manila 153. Thirteen LGUs reported double digits: Parañaque 98, Makati 93, Pasig 85, Muntinlupa 61, Mandaluyong 59, Las Piñas 57, Taguig 52, Marikina 42, Caloocan 36, Valenzuela 34, Pasay City 33, San Juan 19, and Malabon 13.

Outside of NCR, triple digit contributors were: Cavite 219, Laguna 207, Rizal 150 and Bulacan 119. The following provinces/HUCs reported 50 or more cases: Nueva Ecija 87, Iloilo 87, Bataan 78, Pampanga 84, Negros Occidental 67, Cebu 96, Cagayan Province 82, Isabela 64, Nueva Vizcaya 63, Davao del Sur 98, La Union 77, Pangasinan 57 and Zamboanga del Sur 68.

Areas outside of NCR that are seeing unusually higher numbers today were: Agusan del Sur 23, Surigao del Sur 32, Leyte 27, Camarines Norte 40, and Ilocos Norte 40.

Reminding the public to remain vigilant that while the numbers are peaking, these can go both ways – upwards or downtrend depending on the behavior of the public as classes open and the weather systems affect the public crowd capacity especially during disasters.

It is also a good reminder that when you have symptoms, isolate and test immediately.