Casualties of Covid19 and the data for 04.14.2021

The Health Agency reports 8,122 new cases and 162 new deaths for today. We will most likely breach the 900,000 mark tomorrow as there are more tests done and the positivity rate is at 19.5 percent. The unfortunate news are the ICU bed capacity in both the national level and in the National Capital Region. For the national level, it is now close to the critical level of 70 percent, while in Mega Manila, it is alarmingly high at 88 percent.

The increasing death reports over the past week is expected as the cases have averaged more than 10,000 daily in the country. In the National Capital Region alone, where close to 50 percent of the cases in the country is recorded, the OCTA Monitoring Report showed that “the CFR due to COVID-19 in the NCR from March 28 to April 13, 2021 is 5.36%, nearly three times higher compared to the CFR of 1.82% from March 1, 2020 to March 27, 2021. While the more recent CFR is based on a much smaller sample size of 284 deaths, and the CFR may still decrease as more data comes in, the possibility of an increase in CFR should not be ignored. The reasons for the increase in CFR may be due to an overwhelmed hospital care system, the presence of SARS-COV2 variants which may be more lethal, or both. Comparing the CFR before and after March 28, 2021, there was an increase from 11.8% to 28.6% for the 65 and up age group, an increase from 5.7% to 16.4% for the 60-64 age group, and an increase from 2.7% to 8.7% for the 50-59 age group.”

In todays data drop, NCR owned 3,753 or 46.2% of the total cases. CALABARZON was in second with 1,831 cases followed by Central Luzon with 811.

In the National Capital Region, Quezon City led the haul with close to 1/3 of the cases in the NCR. One can see the significantly decline in cases in the various cities in Mega Manila, but this is not reflective of the actual numbers as the reports are from lower testing on a Monday. Thirteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top twenty cities with highest cases.

On a provincial level, Cavite continued to lead. This was followed by the province of Rizal and Pampanga.

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