Reality check Thursday as the PH breaches 900,000 on 04.15.2021

We were headed to break 900,000 cases today. It was inevitable. With 11,429 new cases reported (yes, we’re back to the real numbers as more samples are tested). This pushes the active cases past 20 percent (183,527). As the reproduction number is still > 1.0 the average daily cases will continue to increase (albeit slightly slower than the steep trajectory seen last month). The positivity rate still hovers close to 20 percent in spite of more tests being done. The healthcare capacity in the National Capital Region continues to rise. Note that more cases will also mean a troubling increase in the number of deaths eventually, as critical care units become inundated with the increase in numbers.

The case fatality ratio is NOT 1.72 percent. While the Health Agency arrives at this number by computing the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. A better way to compute for CFR is to use the formula [deaths/(deaths + recoveries)] x 100 = CFR. This latter formula mitigates the bias due to delays in case resolution during an ongoing outbreak by restricting the analysis to resolved cases. This is particularly important at this time because the number of active cases is now more than 20 percent. Hence the denominator cannot be the total number of cases as it is presumptuous that the active cases will all recover. The denominator that should be used should be the deaths plus the cases that have recovered. These are the resolved cases. While this method does not eliminate all biases related to delayed reporting, it is a better formula for computing deaths due to COVID-19, as we still do not know the outcome of the active cases. [For further information on this, kindly refer to the link https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19 .]

With the 148 new deaths reported today, the actual national CFR is 2.16 percent.

The National Capital Region accounted for 5,317 or 46.5 percent of the total cases today. CALABARZON and Central Luzon complete the triumvirate, where these three regions account for 76 percent of the cases in the country. CAR, Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley are the other three regions with more than 400 cases today. There are 82 cases with no known location on a regional level.

In Mega Manila, Quezon City accounted for the majority of the haul with almost 1/4 of the total cases. Manila was second with 623 cases. Pasig and Caloocan had more than 400 but less than 500 cases. Only Muntinlupa and Pateros reported double digits for new cases. Fifteen of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases for the day.

On a provincial level, Rizal overtook Cavite for the top spot. Bulacan was in third with 461 cases. All top ten reported more than 200 cases.

On a lighter note, the DOH has reported that as of April 13, 2021, more than 1.25 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine has been administered. The 7-day average of vaccinated individuals is close to 50,000. Of the vaccines that have been distributed, 64 percent (1,093,651) have received at least the first dose, while 162,065 individuals are fully vaccinated (have completed the second dose). In the infographic below is the information from the Health Agency.

The table should be interpreted cautiously as people may think that more than three million doses have been given. Of the over 3 million doses of the vaccines the Philippines has, 93 percent have been distribution and less than half of the total doses at hand have been administered.

In the table one will see the number of doses received. This indicated the number of doses appropriated for that particular region. Beside the region are the number of first and second doses administered from that appropriated number. While the National Capital Region received the chunk of the vaccines (1,158,470), less than 500,00 have been given a first dose, while around 56,000 have been used for second doses.

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One thought on “Reality check Thursday as the PH breaches 900,000 on 04.15.2021

  1. 0288076101 April 15, 2021 / 6:26 pm

    The doses for the NCR will cover only 5% of the NCR’s population (assuming 2 doses/person)–a looooooong way from even approaching herd immunity

    Like

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