Rt for NCR at 1.16 is not yet enough to bring the daily cases down for 04.16.2021

The Health Agency reports 10,726 new cases today. While the cases are still above the 10,000 mark, there has been a slowing down in the increase of cases. The reproduction rate needs to go down lower and faster so that the we target a Rt of <1.0 in order to achieve an actual decline. More testing has been performed in the past days with a 19.7 percent positivity rate.

There were 145 new deaths reported and again, I will reemphasize that the case fatality ratio is more accurately computed with deaths/(deaths + recoveries) because this is a more realistic CFR than using death/total cases. Why? Because the active cases are large – more than 21 percent (193,476)! Active cases will have two outcomes – recoveries or deaths. We cannot presume that the active cases will all end up as recoveries. With the 145 deaths, our actual CFR is at 2.18 percent and not 1.72 percent (which is a highly biased percentage with too many positive assumptions).

The latest OCTA Monitoring Report on the Philippine COVID-19 update shows that the Reproductive number in the NCR has improved to 1.16 for the week of April 9-15, but is still above 1.0. The average new cases for the NCR daily was 5,085 in the past week and a one week drop in growth rate to -0.4%.

Mega Manila accounted for 47 percent of new reported COVID-19 cases over the past week. The rest were divided as follows: CALABARZON 20 %, Central Luzon 11%, Cagayan Valley 5% and Western Visayas 4%. The one week growth rate of new cases in CALABARZON and Bulacan was 14 percent, while the one week growth rate in Western Visayas was highest at 97%. Cagayan Valley had a decline in the growth rate of -14%.

The table below shows the downward trends in many cities in NCR. “But while the trend has slowed in NCR, the region will continue to have a high number of new COVID-19 cases for the next weeks, which means demand for hospital care in the NCR will not ease very soon. The largest one-week growth rate in the NCR plus was in Kawit, Cavite which had 83 new COVID-19 cases per day over the past week, an increase of 417 % compared to the previous week.” In Mega Manila, it was the city of San Juan that continued to have the highest growth rate of 76%.

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