11,101 new cases and 72 deaths for 04.17.2021

Today was a typical day. The Health Agency reported 11,101 new cases and 72 new deaths bringing the adjusted case fatality ratio now to 2.19 percent in the Philippines. Note that the computation of this case fatality rate is based on deaths/(deaths + recoveries). This was used in this blog (as based on the World Health Organization) because of the very high number of active cases. The current active cases is at 22 percent or 203,710. Removing the active cases provides a more or less realistic indicator of how the Philippines is doing in terms of mortality due to COVID19, instead of using total cases (which is at 926,052) as the denominator. The method of deaths/total cases assumes that all active cases will result in good outcome and no additional deaths would occur among these active cases. When the DOH reports its weekend recovery haul tomorrow, the CFR will slide lower than the past days.

The National Capital Region healthcare capacity remains critical as ICU beds are at more than 85 percent utilized, and ward beds at 72 percent utilization.

The pandemic is not only taking a toll in the Philippines. There is a significant jump in total number of new cases in the world, with India reporting more than 200,000 new cases daily (7-day average of 189,000 cases/day). The case fatality ratio for India is at 1.37 percent, with 88.4 percent of the over 14 million total cases now resolved (resulting in either deaths or recoveries).

Brazil, on the other hand, is seeing more deaths relative to new cases. The estimated CFR for Brazil is at 2.91 percent, with only 9.2 percent active cases.

The global case fatality ratio stands at approximately 2.48 percent, as there are still more than 18 million active cases as of this report.

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