The effect of ECQ on COVID-19 cases on 04.23.2021

Lockdowns definitely work at bringing down the cases of COVID-19. The impact of the two week ECQ from March 22-April 4, 2021 is being seen one month later.

Yesterday saw a 20 percent drop from the expected number of daily new cases for COVID-19. The 8,742 new cases yesterday was based on tests done on April 20, 2021 where of 43,664 samples tested in 40,227 individuals. Hence the lower number of new cases reported on April 22, 2021. This actually would have been lower if the Health Agency reported real time data. However, because of correction and continuous clean up of data does not allow us to see from where additional cases are coming from. Of the 40,227 individuals tested on April 20, 7,055 tested positive. The almost 1,700 cases discrepancy in the test results and announcement of new cases may most likely due to previous positive patients who have not yet been announced because of delays in submission of reports.

The Health Agency today reports 8,719 new cases based on report that 17.1 percent tested positive last April 21, from close to 51,000 individuals tested. If we are to follow the trend of reporting of the Health Agency, this would mean that we will most likely have more cases tomorrow.

But we revel in the better news today as there are 13,812 new recoveries, bringing the total active cases down to 10.5 percent. New deaths were at 159 today with the case fatality ratio lower now to 1.88 percent (based on those with outcomes – recovered or died).

The current health care capacity in the NCR remains to be inundated as the ICU beds are still above the critical level at 82 %.

Whether the shift to MECQ will see a sustained momentum in bringing down the cases the coming weeks is the challenge as the last week of April approaches and the country inches closer to the 1,000,000 mark, let us not keep our guards down as COVID-19 is hitting too close to our own homes and places of work.

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