Bloody April and the week that was – 05.02.2021

With 8,346 new cases and 9,072 new recoveries, the active cases in the Philippines are at 6.8% (71,472). The additional new cases pushes the total cases up to past 1.05 million total COVID19 (and this is an underestimation of the actual numbers in the country) and within an inch to overtaking 25th rank Romania tomorrow in the global ranking of COVID cases.

The week of April 25-May 1, 2021 saw a 7-day average of 8,182 cases and 97 deaths daily in the country. The total new cases for that week was 57,274 and total new deaths was at 679. If we maintain the same average week on week the coming month, we will most likely pass 1.2M total cases before the end of May.

The daily number of cases and deaths has seen a decline during the last week of April, with cases hovering at an average of 8,000 daily and deaths around 100 a day.

Number of tests done averaged more than 50,000 in the past week, but has not considerably increased in order to bring the positivity rate much lower. Note that the daily positivity rate still hovers way above the 5% cut-off for adequate testing at an average of more than 16%.

But the Philippines is not the only Asian nation that is currently battling surges during the pandemic. Indonesia has been seeing a significant decline since March 2021 and has seemed to plateau at 5,000 for the past month. The Philippines saw its second surge in March but has seen lower cases in the past ten days. Japan is battling its third surge, while Malaysia and Thailand are working at addressing their second surge.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Update as of May 2, 2021 showed the continuous decrease in the reproduction number in NCR with an 18% decline in number of cases compared to the previous week. The positivity rate in the NCR is also down to 17% with an average of 24,450 tests per day. Hospital bed occupancy decreased to 56% while ICU remained at 71%. Note that the percentage for ICU occupancy did not increase because the ICU bed capacity was increased to 1,125. The 804 ICU beds occupied to date is the HIGHEST in the NCR since the start of the pandemic.

The following table shows the LGUs in Mega Manila with the highest decrease in new cases from their peak values. Navotas, Pateros and Pasay led the cities with the largest decline. The attack rate is highest for San Juan and Mandaluyong.

This is a late addendum to the post as the DoH uploaded the excel data file quite late yesterday.

Among the regions, NRC + bubble continued the lead with a total of 5,261 cases or 67.3 percent of the total share in the country yesterday.

Quezon City continued to lead among the cities in the NCR, with Pasig in second. Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities with most cases in the country. The surprise of the day was Zamboanga City which landed in 9th spot.

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