The U turn and 5,257 new cases on 06.02.2021

The typical Wednesday is a few cases more than the day before. The Health Agency announces 5,257 new cases today based on close to 40,000 tests done for May 31, with a positivity rate of 12.8%.

With 146 new deaths announced today, the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.78%.

Healthcare utilization is higher nationally than the NCR.

The NCR takes back the lead with a little less than 1,000 new cases or 18.2% of the total cases for the day, followed by CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The irony is, that even on a day like Wednesday where the new cases are lower than the rest of the days of the week (except Tuesdays), all but one region (BARMM) report triple digits.

In NCR, Quezon City continued to report more than 200 new cases, but it was the city of Parañaque that snuck into second spot. Six of the 17 LGUs in Mega Manila were among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

Cavite kept its lead on a provincial level, but Davao del Sur took second rank. Cases in Davao del Sur were driven by Davao City with 226 cases. That was enough to wrest the lead among cities with highest cases for the day.

The OCTA Research Monitoring report for today June 2, 2021 provides an update on the COVID-19 data in the country.

Notice that the reproduction number in both NCR and nationally are up at 0.68 (from 0.57 last week) and 1.09, respectively. This increase in the Rt for the NCR was due to an increase of 8% growth rate. The Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) for NCR remains in moderate risk at 8.22 per 100,000. While NCR saw a slight uptick in Rt (due to increase in cases for the week), the rise in Rt nationally to 1.09 was driven by two factors: the rise in cases outside of NCR and NCR’s cases losing the momentum in decline.

Based on the top LGUs with most cases for the week, Davao City has a growth rate up by 70% and sits in second place. It is, however, Cagayan de Oro (which is in 3rd spot) that is more problematic. Its growth rate is more than 50% but its ADAR is at high risk (18.78%) and its health care utilization rate is at 75%.

The major driver of new cases have now shifted to the regions outside of NCR. As to whether this will return with a vengeance in the NCR because of less tighter quarantine status in areas with high cases outside of Mega Manila and the highly porous borders and the various LGUs requiring testing only when traveling out of NCR but not on the return to the capital city will be something we need to monitor closely in the coming weeks.

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