With >6.5K new cases & 13.3% positivity rate on 06.07.2021, stricter lockdowns in regions outside NCR should be imposed

The Health Agency reports 6,539 new cases based on more than 45,000 tests done last June 5, with a positivity rate of 13.3%. However, there were 7 laboratories that failed to submit reports for this day. If all labs most likely submitted test reports, the new cases would be closer to 7K. There are still close to 60K active cases (4.6%).

An additional 71 new deaths were reported as well, bringing the case fatality ratio for outcomes is at 1.80% for today. Healthcare utilization is higher nationally compared to the NCR. However, the granular breakdown on how specific cities in the country are doing during this second surge is better delineated in the updated OCTA Research Monitoring report.

CALABARZON continued its four digit tally with 1,049 new cases. NCR was in second (12.4% of the total cases in the PH) and Western Visayas in third spot. All regions continued to report triple digits for the day.

In NCR, only Quezon City and Pasig reported triple digits, and at a little more than 100 cases for the day. Six of 17 LGUs in NCR stay in the top twenty cities with most cases in the country.

On a provincial level, Laguna and Cavite, two major provinces in Region IVA, continued to dominate the rest of the provinces in number of cases for the day. These two provinces, together with Batangas, remain the major drivers of cases in CALABARZON.

The shift in tide of cases to the regions outside of NCR among the various LGU cities and municipalities is glaringly seen today as Davao City continued to stay on top among cities with most cases for the day. There are now 7 cities outside of NCR that are in the top ten. Aside from Davao City, they include: Dumaguete City, Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, Butuan City, General Santos City, and Baguio City.

The OCTA Research Monitoring Report on June 7 shows that the NCR plus bubble continued the decline of 11% after a week of uncertain trends. Positivity rate in Mega Manila is 9%.

However, the major cities of concern have shifted to Mindanao and some areas in Visayas. The provinces of concern are Iloilo, Negros Occidental, Davao del Sur, South Cotabato, Negros Oriental, Leyte and Bukidnon, that are seeing rising cases. Health Care Utilization Rate more than 70% is noted in the provinces of Iloilo, Misamis Oriental and Cagayan.

Among LGUs with most new cases per day, Dumaguete saw 206% increase in the period May 31 – June 6. Davao City, Cagayan de Oro, Bacolod City and Iloilo City ranked 2nd to 5th for the first time. The average daily attack rate is highest for Bacolod, Iloilo City, Tuguegarao, Koronadal and Dumaguete. ICU health utilization rate is deadliest in Iloilo City, General Santos, Tuguegarao, Koronadal, Bacoor (Cavite), Cotabato City, and Dumaguete City.

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