With Rt at 0.80 for NCR, should we remain in GCQ in July? More than 1.4M total cases on 06.28.2021

The Health Agency reported 5,604 new cases (with 6 laboratories not submitting their reports for June 26) and a positivity rate of 12.5%. The positivity rate remains HIGH by any standard, considering that less than 43,000 tests were run that day. The number of active cases remain at more than 50,000 as the country breaches 1.4M total COVID-19 cases today. The reader is reminded that the total cases is based on REPORTED and RECORDED cases of patients with positive RT-PCR results and are an undercount of the true number of infected and diseased individuals with COVID-19.

On the presumption that these are the only cases we are actually recording, it is good news that the new cases are fewer.

With 84 new deaths, the case fatality ratio remains steady at 1.81 percent.

CALABARZON, Western Visayas, NCR and Davao Region dominated the tally among regions with more than 500 new cases for the day.

On a provincial level, it was Davao del Sur, Laguna, Negros Occidental, Iloilo, and Cavite that contributed to the pool of cases.

And among LGUs, Davao City continued to lead, followed by Quezon City, Bacolod City, General Santos City and the City of Manila. Seven of the LGUs in NCR were among the top 20 cities/municipalities with most cases.

In the NCR, the top five LGUs were: Quezon City, Manila, Pasig, Muntinlupa and Makati.

The OCTA Research Monitoring releases its June 28 report. The Rt for the Philippines is at 0.92 (June 21-27), higher than that of the NCR which is at 0.80. However, the Rt of the NCR this week is higher than the previous week of 0.71. This is reflected in the slow down of decay in number of new cases per day from the previous week. The average daily attack rate for Mega Manila now stands at 4.83 per 100,000 (moderate to low risk). However, in the table below, note the variability among the different cities in the metro. Those with moderate to low risk (<5/100,000) are Navotas, Caloocan, Marikina, Malabon, Valenzuela, Quezon City, and Manila. All the rest have moderate to high risk, with Pateros carrying the highest ADAR.

The table below lists the LGUs outside of NCR with more than 30 new COVID-19 cases daily from June 21-27. In general, there is a slowing down in many LGUs as seen in the negative growth rates. Hospital bed utilization rates vary among these LGUs, with Tacloban having the highest rate (88%). On the other hand, ICU utilization rates were critical in Davao City, Iloilo City, General Santos, Koronadal and Cabuyao (Laguna).

With the threat of the Delta variant and its cousin Delta plus variant, it is important that we keep the borders from being leaky. Introduction of a variant of concern with higher transmissibility and the possibility of affecting the response to some vaccines, while we are in the midst of rolling out vaccination can pose significant economic and health concerns eventually. All gains made would easily be eradicated and it would be difficult to go into another surge as the number of new daily cases have not gone down to pre-second surge levels (<1,500/day).

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