PH holds steady at 5K/day for 7-day average on 07.18.2021

The Health Agency reports 5,411 new cases with 4 laboratories not submitting data on July 16 with more than 53,000 tests for a positivity rate of 10.2%. Active cases remain at more than 47,000.

New deaths reported at 117 for a case fatality ratio on outcomes steady at 1.83%.

CALABARZON, NCR, and Central Luzon are back in the top three today.

Laguna led the pack on a provincial level, while Davao City continued to have the most cases among all LGUs in the country.

Quezon City continued to lead all LGUs in NCR, while 8 of 17 LGUs from Mega Manila are among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day.

WEEK IN REVIEW

So how did we actually do from July 9-16, 2021?

On cases and deaths, the Philippines is taking a slow decline in cases with a 7-day average down to a tad less than 5,000 new cases daily. The deaths on the other hand are reported erratically, but average 108 new deaths/day during this period.

Testing capacity relatively dips (notice that is the 7-day average) as the positivity rate sees a slight decline to an average of 11%. This is still high as other provinces and LGUs outside of NCR plus are unable to test, trace and isolate properly. I cannot overemphasize that the five pillars of Testing, Tracing, Isolating, Quarantining, and Vaccinating (TTIQV) should remain the solid foundation of resilience during the pandemic.

The rest of Asia (let’s not get to the world for now) is suffering a beating in this surge. Reproduction rate is highest in Singapore at 2.0 among the ASEAN nations. While they may have lower cases, they have fewer people as well, with a population barely 1/2 that of Mega Manila. As seen in the graph below, the Philippines has the lowest reproduction rate at 0.94. But this should be interpreted as both good and bad.

It is good that our Rt is less than 1.0, but we need to work on bringing this lower to 0.5. Yes, 0.5. For 4 consecutive weeks in all regions. That’s the only way we will bring the numbers back to pre-surge levels. The bad news is that with new cases still averaging at least 5,000 per day, any slight upward movement of the reproduction number will be devastating to our healthcare system.

So here is where select Asian countries stand as of July 16, 2021. We’re the only nation in the list below seeing a downward trend. Taiwan, incidentally has done an excellent job at bringing their Rt dramatically to 0.5 in less than 6 weeks. Our problem will always be the discrepancy on how we test and trace depending on the capacity of the LGU.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

Updated as of July 18, 2021 (for the period July 11-17), Mariveles (Bataan) is the LGU at highest risk in the country based on the 4 indicators of infection (Rt), incidence (average daily attack rate or ADAR), ICUUR (intensive care unit utility rate) and positive tests.

Those that are high risk are: Davao City, Iloilo City, Bacolod City, General Santos City, Baguio City, Lapu Lapu City, Laoag City and Santa Rosa (Laguna).

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