A storm is brewing and the data on 07.30.2021

The Health Agency reports 8,562 new cases today from more than 52,000 tests done last July 28 with a positivity rate of almost 15%. The total active cases now exceed 60,000.

New deaths today are 145. The case fatality ratio for outcomes stays at 1.82%.

Notice, however, the ICU bed capacity in the NCR, including isolation and ward beds, which are on the rise. ICU utilization is now at 52%. A red flag that there is a storm approaching.

NCR has more than 1,500 new cases today, with CALABARZON and Central Luzon not a distant second and third, respectively. This is Mega Manila’s highest tally for the week.

Cebu continued to dominate on a provincial level, with Cavite and Laguna in second and third.

Among LGUs in the country, Quezon City is back on top with more than 300 cases, with Cebu City, Cagayan de Oro, Davao City and the City of Manila among the top. Ten of 17 LGUs in the NCR are among the top twenty cities with most cases for the day in the Philippines.

OCTA MONITORING RESEARCH

The numbers are up. So are the reports on the Delta Variant. The latter though is much later data compared to the already delayed case reports provided by the Health Agency. Through no fault of the the Philippine Genome Center, as they do their best in providing what data they can based on their resources.

There are five indicators used in determining the risk level. This makes decisions on how to institute critical measures at addressing rising cases during a pandemic. As the Delta Variant causes havoc globally, there is a need to stave and starve the variant of concern.

These indicators are: Rt (infection rate or reproduction rate), ADAR (average daily attack rate or incidence), HCUR (healthcare utilization rate), ICU (intensive care unit), and testing (positive rate).

In the list provided below are the top 50 LGUs in the countries ranked from highest to lowest in terms of MOST NEW CASES for the period July 23 -29, 2021.

Quezon City had a 39% jump in cases with Rt at 1.44.

This LGUs that had the highest incremental change from the the last week are: Malabon (200%), San Juan (186% ) and Navotas (100%) – all within Mega Manila.

Rt nationally is up at 1.09. On a regional level, Rt is also up in NCR at 1.39. The LGUs with critical Rt are: Malabon, Mandaue, Cebu City, Lapu Lapu City, Makati, Cagayan de Oro, Quezon City, Valenzuela, Laoag, and Caloocan.

ADAR is highest in Laoag, Mariveles, Tuguegarao and Batac.

HCUR is pst 80% in Cagayan de Oro, Lapu Lapu CIty, Iloilo CIty, and Mariveles. ICU utilization is critical in Davao City, Iloilio City, and Las Piñas.

Positive rate is critical in many LGUs with Laoag at 33%, Valenzuela and General Santos at 26%, Cagayan de Oro at 25% and Santa Rosa (Laguna) at 21%.

Cagayan de Oro remains at critical risk. The following cities are considered high risk based on the indicators: Quezon City, Cebu City, Davao City, Makati, Lapu Lapu, Iloilo City, General Santos, Laoag, Caloocan, Mandaue, Mariveles, Las Piñas, Valenzuela, Bacoor, Malabon, and Santa Rosa.

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