Rising Rt, critical zones, positivity at ~25% and the data for 08.14.2021

The second to the highest new cases announced in a day since April 2021 is today.

The Health Agency reports 14,249 new cases pushing the active cases a tad shy of 100,000 active cases. This apparently has put the healthcare system in various localities in critical zones as the ICU beds in the NCR fill up to 71% (and 70% nationally).

With more than 52,000 tests only done last August 12, almost 25% positivity rate was recorded. Meaning 1 in every 4 patients swabbed would likely test positive.

With 233 new deaths, we now pass the 30,000 number of people who have passed away from COVID-19. It would also be better if the Health Agency reported the case fatality ratio more realistically by using outcomes as the denominator. They compute the CFR using the total cases as the denominator, making the case fatality ratio look lower at 1.74%. In reality, the denominator is best represented by the total outcome (in this case, those that have recovered vs those that have died). We cannot presume the outcome of the active cases as good, considering that the ICU utilization has now crossed the 70% mark and that the active cases are almost 100,000. The corrected case fatality ratio based on outcomes stands higher at 1.85% today.

With today’s total cases, NCR accounts for 27.8% of the total cases nationally. Together with CALABARZON and Central Luzon, these three regions make up 58.8% of the country’s total for the day. Other regions are seeing rising numbers once more as all regions, except the BARMM report triple or more digits.

Cebu lands again on top as the province in most cases. Today, four provinces in Region IVA are in the top ten provinces – Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Batangas. Two provinces in Central Luzon join the top ten as well – Bulacan and Pampanga.

At the level of the LGU, 13 of 17 LGUs in NCR are in the top 20 cities with most cases for the day, led by Quezon City, Manila, Caloocan City, and Makati. In fifth spot is Davao City, which is seeing a rise in cases once more.


With the current surge, the OCTA monitoring report for August 7-13, 2021, shows the top 40 LGUs ranked by incidence rate (or average daily attack rate) in the table below. Those highlighted are areas at critical risk. This is led by Navotas with a 215% increase in cases and an ADAR of 47.67 per 100,000 population. Tuguegarao, Mariveles (Bataan), Makati City, Santa Rosa (Laguna), Lapu Lapu City (Cebu), Pasay City, Imus (Cavite), Malolos (Bulacan), Cebu City, Cagayan de Oro, General Trias (Cavite) and Meycauayan (Bulacan) have ADAR of > 25 per 100,000 population.

The next 27 LGUs are all at high risk with ADAR > 10. Only Antipolo is at moderate risk with a 7.51 ADAR.

Positivity rate in the Philippines is at 22% (Rt = 1.45). The positivity rate in the NCR is lower at 19% but has a higher reproduction number at 1.85 than the national Rt.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s