Lower reproduction numbers amidst rising cases and the data of 08.25.2021

It’s a typical Wednesday. Around 10% more than the low Tuesdays. But it’s the highest recorded new cases for a Wednesday so far.

The Health Agency reports 13,573 new cases today. And with more than 15,000 recoveries, the active cases are slightly lower but still more than 125,000 in number. The total COVID-19 cases is now past 1.88M and the Philippines will most likely breach the 2M mark tomorrow at the earliest and Friday at the latest.

Of the over 46,000 tests done last August 23, 25.5% were positive. This means that over the past weeks, from every 4 patients that get tested, 1 will most likely test positive.

There are 228 new deaths reported. This brings the case fatality ratio for outcomes is steady at 1.85%.

Healthcare utilization and ICU rates are still past 70% for both the NCR and national level.

NCR continued to own between 25-27% of the total cases for COVID-19 in the country today. Notice the variability in the cases in the other regions, except for CALABARZON and Central Luzon. The top three regions – Mega Manila, Region IVA and Region III – account for 60% of the daily cases.

Cavite and Laguna, two provinces in CALABARZON, and are contiguous to NCR, remain the top contributors to cases in the country and in that region.

Twelve of 17 LGUs in NCR make it to the top twenty cities with most cases for the day. Surprisingly in fifth spot is Davao City. Four LGUs in Cavite also are in the top 20 list.

OCTA MONITORING REPORT

The NCR averages 25% the total daily COVID cases in this surge. Together with CALABARZON and Central Luzon, these three regions account for half the daily new cases in the country.

While the number of cases continued to increase, with NCR averaging more than 4,000 cases daily from August 18-24 (13% up than the previous week), the reproduction number has slowly declined to 1.53 (on an average). The table below shows the cities with critical ADAR (incidence rate) as highlighted in red, and the high risk in darker orange highlight. Notice that while Caloocan, Marikina, Manila and Quezon City show higher cases this week compared to last, their ADAR is lower because of the population size (based on per capita and not number of cases).

Only Navotas and Malabon saw a decrease in rate of cases, while Las Piñas was flat (no change). On an individual LGU level, the reproduction number was still above 1.4 in all NCR LGUs except for Navotas whose Rt dropped to 1.37.

Meanwhile, in the Mindanao area, the cases seem to ease up (better than the NCR) as the reproduction number in Cagayan de Oro eases up to 1.15 from a previous 1.38. This is positive development and if the trend continues the next two weeks, there will be a significant decline in cases in CDO soon. Malaybalay and Valencia in Bukidnon are still seeing critical ADARs, but the hospital utilization is down in most provinces except for Cagayan de Oro, whose healthcare status is still at critical levels.

While Davao City still sees a rise in cases week on week, that change is minimal and the ICU utilization is down from critical to high risk level.

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