With more than 12,000 new cases and the data for 10.10.2021

The Health Agency reports 12,159 new cases today. Of course, this will not match their infographics where they point out that the data today is based on reports last October 8 where 53,880 were tested with 15.9% positivity. If this were the case, then we would mathematically have 8500 or so cases in actuality.

But people don’t count the backlog and if you did, you’d notice that the backlogs were mounting the past days. I can only surmise that these were due to the COVIDKaya glitches, which needs to get addressed ASAP. It is difficult to model inaccurate data.

With more than 27,000 recoveries, the active cases are now at 90,927.

There are 119 new deaths reported today.

NCR recorded a high 23% of the total cases today (from previous < 20% daily shares), and CALABARZON and Central Luzon back in the 1-2-3 rankings. Cagayan Valley came in fourth and the other regions in Northern Luzon (Ilocos Region and CAR) take a respite from the daily high numbers (most likely delayed reports again).

However, on a provincial level, Isabela continued to lead, followed by Cavite and Rizal.

And among cities/municipalities, 13 of 17 LGUs in NCR are among the top ten. The surprise of the day is Zamboanga City that zipped into second spot. Davao City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City and Antipolo (Rizal) are in the top ten list.


The number of cases (and deaths) continued to decrease in the Philippines, in spite of remaining anywhere between 7th-11th place (depending on which day you were looking at). The 7-day average is down to a little more than 11,000 and should likely trend in the four digits this coming week, as the R is seen declining as well.

The average deaths seen is also low, but may not be accurate as the many glitches in COVIDKaya became challenging in reporting mortalities.

Testing has also considerably declined, but the positivity rate has decreased as well. The decrease in testing can be attributed to the decreasing cases, particularly in the National Capital Region. Why is this so? The NCR (plus CALABARZON and Central Luzon) account for more than 50% of the almost 280 testing facilities in the country. Notice that the positivity rate posted here is still at 21%, but the Department of Health pegs our 7 day average at 16.3% as of yesterday, October 9, 2021.

If you scrutinize the data drop, the NCR, the largest contributor to the daily COVID-19 cases has a positivity rate of 13%. Quite a distance from the national average. It’s because more people get tested where there are facilities. Where there is lack of laboratories for testing, there is delay in testing and obtaining results.

In the ASEAN region and select Asian continent, the total number of weekly confirmed COVID-19 cases as of October 8 was highest for Thailand, followed by the Philippines. Surprisingly, Singapore had more cases this past week with 20,343 cases, than Indonesia that reported only 9,383 cases over the whole week.

The number of cases can be correlated with the effective reproduction number among the same countries. Singapore is seeing a rise in R at 1.46, while Thailand is cruising at 1.08. All other ASEAN nations are down to <1.0, while Japan is seeing a R<0.5. If Japan is able to maintain the R <0.5 for a whole month, it will likely see double to low triple digit cases in a day next month.

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