Current situation of top 20 provinces (plus NCR) and the data for 11.13.2021

The Health Agency reports 1,997 new cases today based on close to 46,000 tests done last November 11 with a 4.5% positivity rate. Active cases are less than 30,000.

The puzzle in the infographic data is that more than 30% are moderate to critical among the active cases. That means more than 9,000 patients fall in this category. But even taking the severe and critical patients alone – that would mean 14.4% of the total cases fall in this category. That’s 4,231 cases among the active cases. Based on the infographic, there are 3,800 ICU beds in the country and only 36% are utilized or 1,368 of it is occupied. Where are the 2,863 patients in the severe and critical category?

The agency needs to provide an answer to the apparent discrepancy in health care utilization in the country as more moderate to critical cases are being recorded.

Additional 238 new deaths were reported today.

NCR outnumbered all other regions accounting for more than 26% of the total cases in the Philippines today. That means that more than 1 out of 4 cases in the country were from NCR alone. The shocker of the day? Almost half the reported cases were from Quezon City. It outstripped regions and provinces with an astounding record high of 252 reported cases. One in 8 cases in the country reported today was from Quezon City alone.

OCTA RESEARCH MONITORING

Update from the OCTA Research Group for COVID Monitoring is provided today. The top twenty provinces (including NCR) are mostly seeing a decline in growth rate, but the growth rate of NCR had significantly slowed down this week to -5% only. Several provinces like Cavite, Bulacan, Davao del Sur, Laguna, Pampanga and Cebu have very low risk based on the average sum of indicators used to classify risk – ADAR, Health care utilization, ICU rate (according to government data), and positivity testing. Notice that there are many provinces that still have critical and high risk rating in the positivity rates. Among all the provinces, Negros Oriental remains at high risk in all major indicators.

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