Another better week despite low testing and the data for 11.14.2021

While the Health Agency reports a tad lower cases with 1,926 new cases, the number of active cases fall to a few notches above 28,000. This is based on reports from November 12 where close to 41,000 tests with 3.9% positivity rate was registered.

As the total active cases dip, the moderate to critically ill continue to contribute to close to 32% of the total share. That means that 8,964 cases fall in this class. Critical and severe comprise 15% of the total active – 4,215 to be exact.

A record week high in number of deaths with 309 newly announced deaths today.

NCR has been owning a greater share of the cases in the country the past week. With R up at 0.54 (+/- 0.05), it now averages about 20% of the total cases (1 in 5) in the country daily. Cagayan Valley came in second and CALABARZON in third.

It was Quezon City that continued to pour in cases for the National Capital Region with almost 36% (142) of the cases today. As a matter of fact, only Quezon City had numbers that equaled the total cases of Zamboanga City, Solano (Nueva Vizcaya) and the City of Manila combined. Quezon City also had almost 4x the total cases of the City of Manila, second among the LGUs in NCR with most cases.

The fewest cases in the top twenty LGUs in the country today was 16. Which meant that if the LGU had 16 or more cases, it would be in the list.

THE WEEK IN REVIEW

With the sudden downgrading to alert level 2 in most places in the Philippines, the decline in cases slows down as the economy attempts to recover during the last quarter of the year. And while the cases are lower now, one should take into context that testing has also decreased in the country. When mild and asymptomatic cases do not get tested, there is a rise in the more moderate to severe (and critical) disease. And that’s not good because contact tracing is affected. Which means that we may most likely be seeing an artificial drop in cases because only those that have more severe clinical presentations get tested.

The 7-day average of cases drops to a little above 2,000 cases/day, while deaths continue to fluctuate.

Which isn’t too shabby when compared to the other countries in select Asian region. Singapore and Malaysia continue to lead with triple digits per million population, while the Philippines is now lower at 19 cases/M. The major envy of course is with Indonesia and Japan – two more populous countries than the Philippines – and yet seeing single digit per capita cases per million. Indonesia now reports 1.47 and Japan 1.48 case/million population!

When put together side by side, notice how cases, tests, positive rate and reproduction rates are lower in the Philippines currently. There is significant decline in all these parameters.

And when compared to the same select Asian countries described above, other countries are still grappling with existing conditions. Singapore for example has not only the highest cases per capita but also has the highest positivity rate at 17.1% in the region. It has also decreased testing capacity compared to Malaysia. Reproduction rate is highest now in Vietnam (it was highest with South Korea last week), as other countries see a decline in R and the Philippines recording the lowest R for the week as of November 10.

Note, however, that the Philippines has the fewest number of people tested in this region with 3-4 tests done per 10,000 people. And that can provide an artificial look at gains, especially when more of the people being tested are only those who end up being hospitalized. It would have been a great story for the Philippines had the positive test rate been the way it is (or even lower) with higher number of people getting tested. This would mean that contact tracing is robust.

In the meantime, this is how the numbers end for the week.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s