A very low risk NCR for the holidays and the data 12.21.2021

The Health Agency reports 168 new cases (an all time low even during the beginning of the pandemic), with close to 23,000 tests done and 0.9% positivity last December 19. There are backlogs, which were not included in todays report. There is a very slow reconciliation of the status of the remaining 9,384 cases as close to 60% belong to the moderate to critical category. This is not in congruence with the data on ICU utilization in both the NCR and nationally.

Ten deaths are added today.

NCR recorded 47 cases today, will ALL LGUs in the NCR reporting single digit cases. The cities of Manila, Quezon City and Taguig equally contributing 7 cases each. Notice that there are fewer cases in Visayas and Mindanao due to the typhoon, affecting operating of “20 laboratories” based on the DoH report.

Cavite and Negros Occidental report double digits.

The fewest cases for an LGU to be in the top 10 is 4 for today.


As Christmas draws nearer, the numbers in the country and in Mega Manila continue on a downward trajectory. Which is, a good sign. It has been quite awhile that we’ve seen numbers this good – the ADAR is very low at 0.55, a Rt of 0.48 (for the past month with many cities even lower than 0.30), ICU utilization that is very low in most cities and a positivity rate of 0.6%. These numbers tell us one thing – that we will still see a lowering of cases in the upcoming week. And with the new cases averaging 78/day (7-day average), this should be a joyous occasion which should be celebrated with caution in order to usher in a perfect year for an economic rebound.

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